# Imperial Oil (IMO.TO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/IMO.TO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:49.478Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: CAD. Reporting currency: CAD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CAD 184.22 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CAD 120.68 per share, central CAD 136.83 per share, high CAD 158.33 per share. Buy at or below the central value CAD 136.83 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:49.478Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CA 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.38×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.03×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.16×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -1.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 18.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.1%

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 11.9%

- FY2019: 12.6%

- FY2020: 2.3%

- FY2021: 15.6%

- FY2022: 37.8%

- FY2023: 24.6%

- FY2024: 23.6%

- FY2025: 12.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CAD 24B

- Net income, five-year total: CAD 23B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.29×

- FY2022: 1.03×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.13×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 23.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.32 to 8.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -5.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -7.3%

- Market cap gain: CAD 20B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CAD -4.0B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -5.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -7.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 26.2%

- Per-share value change: CAD 7.17

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CAD 1.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CAD 8.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.83

- Average buyback yield: 5.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CAD 620M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CAD 28B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 23.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CAD 2.55

- FY2017: CAD 0.58

- FY2018: CAD 2.86

- FY2019: CAD 2.88

- FY2020: CAD -2.53

- FY2021: CAD 3.48

- FY2022: CAD 11.44

- FY2023: CAD 8.49

- FY2024: CAD 9.03

- FY2025: CAD 6.48

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.83×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.05×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.4%

- FY2017: -5.5%

- FY2018: -3.9%

- FY2019: -5.3%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -7.3%

- FY2022: -7.2%

- FY2023: 2.8%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.7% a year for ten years · sales -8.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.899Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-09-30: Imperial Oil to Axe 20% of Workforce on Glut Predictions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-oil-axe-20-workforce-061116708.html))

- 2025-10-31: Imperial Oil's Q3 Income Drops on Impairment, Restructuring Charges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-oil-apos-q3-income-121827722.html))

- 2026-01-30: Imperial Oil's Fourth-Quarter Adjusted Profit Falls 21% on Lower Oil Prices; Hikes Dividend 20% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-oil-apos-fourth-quarter-133901581.html))

- 2026-08-07: Why Imperial Oil Cut Refinery Guidance 6% Despite Strong Q2 Results ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/why-imperial-oil-cut-refinery-152000529.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -8.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49938/000004993826000009/imo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: CAD 23B 

- FY2017: CAD 29B 

- FY2018: CAD 35B 

- FY2019: CAD 34B 

- FY2020: CAD 22B 

- FY2021: CAD 38B 

- FY2022: CAD 60B 

- FY2023: CAD 51B 

- FY2024: CAD 52B 

- FY2025: CAD 47B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49938/000004993826000009/imo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 13.6% 

- FY2017: 12.8% 

- FY2018: 16.1% 

- FY2019: 13.9% 

- FY2020: 7.7% 

- FY2021: 16.2% 

- FY2022: 20.5% 

- FY2023: 18.1% 

- FY2024: 17.9% 

- FY2025: 21.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are CAD 47.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 47078000000; grossProfit 9995000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IMO.TO: Imperial Oil Limited engages in exploration, production, and sale of crude oil and natural gas in Canada. The company operates in three segments: Upstream, Downstream and Chemical segments. The Upstream segment explores and produces crude oil, natural gas, synthetic crude oil, and bitumen. The Downstream segment transports and refines crude oil; blends refined products; and distributes and markets refined products. This segment also transports crude oil production and third-party crude oil to refineries by contracted and common carrier pipelines; owns and operates refineries; maintains a distribution system to move petroleum products to market by pipeline, tanker, rail, and road transport; owns and operates fuel terminals, natural gas liquids, and products pipelines in Alberta, Manitoba, and Ontario; markets petroleum products under the Esso and Mobil brands; and sells petroleum products, including fuel, asphalt, and lubricants to industrial and transportation customers, independent marketers, resellers, and other refiners, as well as the agriculture, residential heating, and commercial markets through branded fuel and lubricant resellers. The Chemical segment manufactures and markets aliphatic solvents, plasticizer intermediates, and polyethylene resins; and markets refinery grade propylene. It also provides petrochemicals. The company was incorporated in 1880 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada. Imperial Oil Limited operates as a subsidiary of ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.9% to 21.2% during 2023–25; it earns 12.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.05086179218318076],[2017,0.07641400100754492],[2018,0.11867935794309001],[2019,0.12592060355667326],[2020,0.022694099378881987],[2021,0.15633387528353798],[2022,0.37839300177384755],[2023,0.24627023116104768],[2024,0.2356045140372177],[2025,0.1288152466388982]]; median 0.12736792509778572. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CAD 3.2 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 1073000000; owner earnings 2720000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 993000000; owner earnings 1669000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 1491000000; owner earnings 2332000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1636000000; owner earnings 2030600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1108000000; owner earnings 3197200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1526000000; owner earnings 7563600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1785000000; owner earnings 4854400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 1867000000; owner earnings 4768200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2005000000; owner earnings 3706000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,492000000],[2017,524000000],[2018,572000000],[2019,631000000],[2020,649000000],[2021,706000000],[2022,851000000],[2023,1103000000],[2024,1238000000],[2025,1401000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/IMO.TO.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 3234000000 CAD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 71.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); IMO.TO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 71.314 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Climate change, energy transition and greenhouse gas restrictions" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49938/000004993826000009/imo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Climate change, energy transition and greenhouse gas restrictions

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05443407845516146. Price 184.22; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.49612038561015753 → FY2025 7.353174603174603. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CAD per share)

- 2016-10: CAD 43.50 per share

- 2016-11: CAD 45.99 per share

- 2016-12: CAD 46.71 per share

- 2017-01: CAD 42.78 per share

- 2017-02: CAD 41.49 per share

- 2017-03: CAD 40.52 per share

- 2017-04: CAD 39.71 per share

- 2017-05: CAD 38.22 per share

- 2017-06: CAD 37.80 per share

- 2017-07: CAD 35.78 per share

- 2017-08: CAD 36.86 per share

- 2017-09: CAD 39.86 per share

- 2017-10: CAD 41.83 per share

- 2017-11: CAD 39.80 per share

- 2017-12: CAD 39.23 per share

- 2018-01: CAD 38.67 per share

- 2018-02: CAD 34.75 per share

- 2018-03: CAD 34.12 per share

- 2018-04: CAD 39.93 per share

- 2018-05: CAD 42.42 per share

- 2018-06: CAD 43.70 per share

- 2018-07: CAD 44.55 per share

- 2018-08: CAD 40.67 per share

- 2018-09: CAD 41.80 per share

- 2018-10: CAD 41.12 per share

- 2018-11: CAD 39.57 per share

- 2018-12: CAD 34.59 per share

- 2019-01: CAD 37.28 per share

- 2019-02: CAD 35.63 per share

- 2019-03: CAD 36.48 per share

- 2019-04: CAD 38.92 per share

- 2019-05: CAD 36.13 per share

- 2019-06: CAD 36.26 per share

- 2019-07: CAD 36.14 per share

- 2019-08: CAD 32.67 per share

- 2019-09: CAD 34.50 per share

- 2019-10: CAD 32.80 per share

- 2019-11: CAD 33.26 per share

- 2019-12: CAD 34.35 per share

- 2020-01: CAD 31.38 per share

- 2020-02: CAD 29.39 per share

- 2020-03: CAD 15.91 per share

- 2020-04: CAD 22.49 per share

- 2020-05: CAD 21.51 per share

- 2020-06: CAD 21.84 per share

- 2020-07: CAD 20.95 per share

- 2020-08: CAD 21.51 per share

- 2020-09: CAD 15.94 per share

- 2020-10: CAD 17.72 per share

- 2020-11: CAD 22.48 per share

- 2020-12: CAD 24.16 per share

- 2021-01: CAD 24.33 per share

- 2021-02: CAD 27.89 per share

- 2021-03: CAD 30.44 per share

- 2021-04: CAD 35.50 per share

- 2021-05: CAD 40.61 per share

- 2021-06: CAD 37.78 per share

- 2021-07: CAD 34.18 per share

- 2021-08: CAD 33.39 per share

- 2021-09: CAD 40.03 per share

- 2021-10: CAD 41.90 per share

- 2021-11: CAD 42.23 per share

- 2021-12: CAD 45.62 per share

- 2022-01: CAD 52.01 per share

- 2022-02: CAD 56.89 per share

- 2022-03: CAD 60.50 per share

- 2022-04: CAD 64.68 per share

- 2022-05: CAD 69.28 per share

- 2022-06: CAD 60.68 per share

- 2022-07: CAD 61.37 per share

- 2022-08: CAD 64.46 per share

- 2022-09: CAD 59.81 per share

- 2022-10: CAD 74.11 per share

- 2022-11: CAD 76.53 per share

- 2022-12: CAD 65.95 per share

- 2023-01: CAD 72.72 per share

- 2023-02: CAD 67.49 per share

- 2023-03: CAD 68.73 per share

- 2023-04: CAD 69.06 per share

- 2023-05: CAD 61.62 per share

- 2023-06: CAD 67.78 per share

- 2023-07: CAD 71.04 per share

- 2023-08: CAD 76.73 per share

- 2023-09: CAD 83.66 per share

- 2023-10: CAD 79.03 per share

- 2023-11: CAD 76.45 per share

- 2023-12: CAD 75.48 per share

- 2024-01: CAD 77.55 per share

- 2024-02: CAD 84.92 per share

- 2024-03: CAD 93.43 per share

- 2024-04: CAD 94.65 per share

- 2024-05: CAD 96.30 per share

- 2024-06: CAD 93.28 per share

- 2024-07: CAD 98.91 per share

- 2024-08: CAD 101.50 per share

- 2024-09: CAD 95.15 per share

- 2024-10: CAD 103.90 per share

- 2024-11: CAD 103.69 per share

- 2024-12: CAD 88.59 per share

- 2025-01: CAD 96.67 per share

- 2025-02: CAD 98.09 per share

- 2025-03: CAD 103.95 per share

- 2025-04: CAD 92.99 per share

- 2025-05: CAD 97.98 per share

- 2025-06: CAD 108.18 per share

- 2025-07: CAD 115.53 per share

- 2025-08: CAD 124.62 per share

- 2025-09: CAD 126.19 per share

- 2025-10: CAD 124.05 per share

- 2025-11: CAD 139.70 per share

- 2025-12: CAD 118.58 per share

- 2026-01: CAD 137.57 per share

- 2026-02: CAD 159.55 per share

- 2026-03: CAD 182.21 per share

- 2026-04: CAD 181.96 per share

- 2026-05: CAD 163.57 per share

- 2026-06: CAD 159.26 per share

- 2026-07: CAD 181.75 per share

- 2026-08: CAD 182.14 per share

- 2026-09: CAD 175.00 per share

- 2026-10: CAD 183.75 per share

## Annual estimated value (CAD per share)

- FY2017: low CAD 22.30 per share, central CAD 25.27 per share, high CAD 29.23 per share

- FY2018: low CAD 31.82 per share, central CAD 36.16 per share, high CAD 41.93 per share

- FY2019: low CAD 35.05 per share, central CAD 46.20 per share, high CAD 53.85 per share

- FY2020: low CAD 20.22 per share, central CAD 22.95 per share, high CAD 26.58 per share

- FY2021: low CAD 38.02 per share, central CAD 45.15 per share, high CAD 52.26 per share

- FY2022: low CAD 88.11 per share, central CAD 124.16 per share, high CAD 145.15 per share

- FY2023: low CAD 102.41 per share, central CAD 146.30 per share, high CAD 171.86 per share

- FY2024: low CAD 115.84 per share, central CAD 156.66 per share, high CAD 183.55 per share

- FY2025: low CAD 94.90 per share, central CAD 107.93 per share, high CAD 125.28 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:35.267Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/49938/000004993826000009/imo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 13,590,697 IMO shares; USD 1,524,486,000 reported position value; 2.51% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): 5,000 IMO shares; USD 561,000 reported position value; 0.26% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.