# Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KSPI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:55.758Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: KZT.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $94.84 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $272.46 per share, central $306.07 per share, high $350.83 per share. Buy at or below the central value $306.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:55.758Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 34.3% at the stated quote. About 34.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.46×

- FY2020: 0.49×

- FY2021: 0.83×

- FY2022: 0.83×

- FY2023: 0.53×

- FY2024: 0.50×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- Recent gross margin fell 4.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 63.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 42.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 69.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 64.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 6

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 50.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 37.6%

- FY2020: 42.2%

- FY2021: 74.7%

- FY2022: 79.0%

- FY2023: 63.8%

- FY2024: 60.3%

- FY2025: >100%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.72×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: KZT 2.83T

- Net income, five-year total: KZT 3.94T

- Return on incremental invested capital: 130.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 6.2 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.47×

- FY2025: 0.47×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 42.2% vs 63.8%

- Per-share earnings: 1347.15 to 5411.13 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Per-share value growth: 41.6%

- Per-share value change: KZT 4K

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: KZT 1K

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: KZT 5K

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.80

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 42.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 63.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: KZT 1K

- FY2020: KZT 1K

- FY2021: KZT 2K

- FY2022: KZT 3K

- FY2023: KZT 4K

- FY2024: KZT 5K

- FY2025: KZT 5K

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.65×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.34×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -4.7%

- FY2020: -12.7%

- FY2021: 10.0%

- FY2022: -8.5%

- FY2023: -3.9%

- FY2024: 5.5%

- FY2025: 3.3%

## Holders

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mohnish Pabrai](https://gigainvestors.com/PI): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 33% since Nov 2021 · "Guidance for GMV Growth: Adjusted to 15% to 20% from 25% to 30%." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +56.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:02.588Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 17.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-04: Kaspi.kz shares soar over 7% as Q2 revenue tops estimates ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/kaspikz-shares-soar-over-7-as-q2-revenue-tops-estimates-93CH-4167635))

- 2026-03-05: Kaspi.kz (NasdaqGS:KSPI) Valuation Check After Earnings Beat Dividend Proposal And New Payment Rollout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kaspi-kz-nasdaqgs-kspi-valuation-101010085.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +56.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-16.

- FY2019: KZT 525B 

- FY2020: KZT 648B 

- FY2021: KZT 885B 

- FY2022: KZT 1.27T 

- FY2023: KZT 1.89T 

- FY2024: KZT 2.52T 

- FY2025: KZT 3.94T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 73.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-16.

- FY2019: 66.8% 

- FY2020: 69.2% 

- FY2021: 91.7% 

- FY2022: 91.8% 

- FY2023: 64.5% 

- FY2024: 62.3% 

- FY2025: 73.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software infrastructure; annual sales are KZT 3.9 trillion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2025: revenue 3935016998000; grossProfit 2894047034000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KSPI.US: Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz, together with its subsidiaries, provides payments, marketplace, and fintech solutions for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company operates through three segments: Payments, Marketplace, and Fintech. The Payments segment offers a platform that facilities transactions between and among merchants and consumers. This segment provides ways for consumers to pay for shopping transactions and regular household bills, as well as make peer to peer payments; and enables merchants to accept payment online and in store, issue and settle invoices, pay suppliers, and monitor merchant turnover. It also offers proprietary data, which facilitates informed decision-making across multiple areas of business. Its Marketplace Platform segment connects both online and offline merchants with consumers, enabling merchants to increase sales through an omnichannel strategy and allowing consumers to purchase products and services from various merchants. This segment operates marketplaces through m-commerce, a mobile solution for shopping in person; e-Commerce, which allows consumers to shop anywhere and anytime with free delivery; and Kaspi Travel that allows consumers to book domestic and international flights, domestic rail tickets, and international package holidays. It also enhances merchants' sales by connecting payments and fintech products, Kapsi advertising, and other delivery services. The Fintech Platform segment provides consumers with buy-now-pay-later, finance and savings products, and merchants with merchant finance services. It also involved in the banking; distressed asset management; real estate business; payment processing; online travel; e-grocery; classifieds; and storage and processing of information services. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Almaty, the Republic of Kazakhstan.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 62.3% to 73.5% during 2023–25; it earns 63.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 64.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 62.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 73.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.3758274484084011],[2020,0.42189480024927783],[2021,0.746973652732654],[2022,0.7903289027907613],[2023,0.6379419325479788],[2024,0.6025141536083697],[2025,2.2728775658508185]]; median 0.6379419325479788. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns over 100% on new investment; paid dividends in 6 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 16932000000; owner earnings 178567000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2020: growth capex 11898938779.846188; upkeep 6290061220.153812; owner earnings 256708938779.8462. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04635186774719492.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2021: growth capex 12223000000; upkeep 12678000000; owner earnings 431914000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.028299615201174307.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2022: growth capex 35065715136.82454; upkeep 24402284863.17546; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 577589202136.8246. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06071047555441982.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2023: growth capex 50256832105; upkeep 167895; cash acquisitions 29052000000; owner earnings 841351000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09426366891463848.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 95726000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 486166000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 182513000000; cash acquisitions 552834000000; owner earnings 491098000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.1257101433929684.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Incremental return on capital 1.304797748609166, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Dividend observations: [[2019,97697000000],[2020,175368000000],[2021,340362000000],[2022,210102000000],[2023,560132000000],[2024,646056000000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-16); FY2025: cash repurchases 21907000000 KZT.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); KSPI.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 20.377000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 17.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.25648015161792437. Price 94.84; FX 0.0022111663129181; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2020-12: $54.10 per share

- 2021-01: $63.40 per share

- 2021-02: $79.90 per share

- 2021-03: $70.97 per share

- 2021-04: $70.97 per share

- 2021-05: $79.75 per share

- 2021-06: $93.89 per share

- 2021-07: $99.90 per share

- 2021-08: $99.90 per share

- 2021-09: $112.50 per share

- 2021-10: $112.50 per share

- 2021-11: $142.36 per share

- 2021-12: $142.36 per share

- 2022-01: $99.00 per share

- 2022-02: $58.00 per share

- 2022-03: $48.79 per share

- 2022-04: $64.75 per share

- 2022-05: $63.75 per share

- 2022-06: $47.50 per share

- 2022-07: $46.00 per share

- 2022-08: $51.80 per share

- 2022-09: $58.50 per share

- 2022-10: $58.50 per share

- 2022-11: $58.50 per share

- 2022-12: $66.00 per share

- 2023-01: $75.50 per share

- 2023-02: $78.50 per share

- 2023-03: $71.26 per share

- 2023-04: $78.15 per share

- 2023-05: $78.00 per share

- 2023-06: $81.10 per share

- 2023-07: $81.40 per share

- 2023-08: $99.60 per share

- 2023-09: $99.60 per share

- 2023-10: $93.50 per share

- 2023-11: $96.00 per share

- 2023-12: $92.50 per share

- 2024-01: $91.45 per share

- 2024-02: $103.99 per share

- 2024-03: $128.64 per share

- 2024-04: $117.76 per share

- 2024-05: $126.40 per share

- 2024-06: $129.01 per share

- 2024-07: $130.13 per share

- 2024-08: $130.93 per share

- 2024-09: $105.99 per share

- 2024-10: $110.14 per share

- 2024-11: $106.40 per share

- 2024-12: $94.71 per share

- 2025-01: $95.10 per share

- 2025-02: $104.74 per share

- 2025-03: $92.85 per share

- 2025-04: $87.89 per share

- 2025-05: $79.77 per share

- 2025-06: $84.89 per share

- 2025-07: $78.90 per share

- 2025-08: $93.96 per share

- 2025-09: $81.68 per share

- 2025-10: $74.79 per share

- 2025-11: $77.31 per share

- 2025-12: $78.13 per share

- 2026-01: $76.17 per share

- 2026-02: $70.59 per share

- 2026-03: $74.07 per share

- 2026-04: $85.84 per share

- 2026-05: $90.40 per share

- 2026-06: $86.64 per share

- 2026-07: $88.78 per share

- 2026-08: $105.14 per share

- 2026-09: $94.06 per share

- 2026-10: $94.84 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2023: low $130.76 per share, central $145.36 per share, high $164.79 per share

- FY2024: low $165.44 per share, central $184.97 per share, high $210.97 per share

- FY2025: low $243.39 per share, central $273.81 per share, high $314.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1985487/000198548726000008/kspi-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [John Rogers](https://gigainvestors.com/AI): 23,614 KSPI shares; USD 2,046,000 reported position value; 0.02% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): 252,826 KSPI shares; USD 21,905,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Prem Watsa](https://gigainvestors.com/FFH): 106,000 KSPI shares; USD 9,175,000 reported position value; 0.35% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Mohnish Pabrai](https://gigainvestors.com/PI): 1,702 KSPI shares; USD 147,000 reported position value; 0.04% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): 3,071,888 KSPI shares; USD 266,148,000 reported position value; 0.78% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Bill Ruane](https://gigainvestors.com/RC): 3,934 KSPI shares; USD 341,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): 212,999 KSPI shares; USD 18,454,000 reported position value; 0.96% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# KSPI — Jsc Kaspi.kz ADR

Held by 7 investors · USD 318,216,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 86.64 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/KSPI

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Richard Pzena (https://gigainvestors.com/PIM) | USD 266,148,000 | 0.8% | add +14.95% |
| David Hoeft (https://gigainvestors.com/DAC) | USD 21,905,000 | <0.1% | add +20.26% |
| Mason Hawkins (https://gigainvestors.com/SE) | USD 18,454,000 | 1.0% | reduce -11.48% |
| Prem Watsa (https://gigainvestors.com/FFH) | USD 9,175,000 | 0.4% | new |
| John Rogers (https://gigainvestors.com/AI) | USD 2,046,000 | <0.1% | add +3.92% |
| Bill Ruane (https://gigainvestors.com/RC) | USD 341,000 | <0.1% | reduce -3.65% |
| Mohnish Pabrai (https://gigainvestors.com/PI) | USD 147,000 | <0.1% | new |

## Total held by quarter

- 2024 Q1: USD 710,975 · 1 holder · USD 128.66
- 2024 Q2: USD 112,974,832 · 3 holders · USD 129.01
- 2024 Q3: USD 113,873,676 · 3 holders · USD 105.99
- 2024 Q4: USD 107,648,125 · 3 holders · USD 94.73
- 2025 Q1: USD 134,311,282 · 3 holders · USD 92.85
- 2025 Q2: USD 160,296,810 · 4 holders · USD 84.89
- 2025 Q3: USD 158,818,204 · 5 holders · USD 81.68
- 2025 Q4: USD 245,903,755 · 5 holders · USD 78.13
- 2026 Q1: USD 233,323,420 · 5 holders · USD 74.07
- 2026 Q2: USD 318,216,000 · 7 holders · USD 86.64