# Lotus Bakeries (LOTB.BR)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/LOTB.BR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:29:57.990Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 12,860.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 2,614.84 per share, central EUR 3,594.67 per share, high EUR 4,201.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 3,594.67 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:29:57.990Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; BE 10-year bond 4.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.17×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.17×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 10.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 23.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 21.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 10.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 29.2%

- FY2017: 30.3%

- FY2018: 26.3%

- FY2019: 23.6%

- FY2020: 24.0%

- FY2021: 23.3%

- FY2022: 19.6%

- FY2023: 22.8%

- FY2024: 21.1%

- FY2025: 21.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.87×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 562M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 648M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 33.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.97×

- FY2022: 0.54×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 0.88×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.2% vs 21.5%

- Per-share earnings: 75.77 to 187.67 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: EUR 4.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 657M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.0%

- Per-share value change: EUR 111.90

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 75.77

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 187.67

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.10

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 440M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 997M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 21.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 75.77

- FY2017: EUR 78.49

- FY2018: EUR 82.60

- FY2019: EUR 92.47

- FY2020: EUR 101.70

- FY2021: EUR 111.80

- FY2022: EUR 127.32

- FY2023: EUR 159.07

- FY2024: EUR 187.67

- FY2025: EUR 211.88

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.20×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.4%

- FY2017: -1.9%

- FY2018: 0.0%

- FY2019: -1.0%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -1.9%

- FY2022: -0.7%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -2.1%

- FY2025: -2.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.5% a year for ten years · "Lotus to expand factory to meet Biscoff demand" (finance.yahoo.com, May 2026) · sales +10%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:06.331Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 22.5% a year for ten years

- 2026-05-13: Lotus to expand factory to meet Biscoff demand ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lotus-expand-factory-meet-biscoff-104846804.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: EUR 507M 

- FY2017: EUR 524M 

- FY2018: EUR 556M 

- FY2019: EUR 613M 

- FY2020: EUR 663M 

- FY2021: EUR 750M 

- FY2022: EUR 877M 

- FY2023: EUR 1.1B 

- FY2024: EUR 1.2B 

- FY2025: EUR 1.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.5%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2016: 40.2% 

- FY2017: 39.1% 

- FY2018: 39.4% 

- FY2019: 17.2% 

- FY2020: 17.0% 

- FY2021: 17.6% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 39.2% 

- FY2024: 39.0% 

- FY2025: 17.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaged foods; annual sales are EUR 1.4 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 1355061000; grossProfit 237372000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.5% to 39.2% during 2023–25; it earns 23.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 39%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.291775801120572],[2017,0.3030950781875977],[2018,0.2627876652669754],[2019,0.23630930434786354],[2020,0.23968464585290375],[2021,0.23318977207243893],[2022,0.19595430919783488],[2023,0.2276861106770333],[2024,0.21086659011281403],[2025,0.21494331008840445]]; median 0.23474953821015124. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 37.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 33.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2016: growth capex 23196000; upkeep 15088000; owner earnings 61245000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.37874112172422236.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2017: growth capex 6052195.717047866; upkeep 20119804.282952134; owner earnings 55524195.71704787. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10900105150356335.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 11531785.87486225; upkeep 31058214.12513775; owner earnings 48791785.87486225. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23634687003337335.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 20446335.165206786; upkeep 27031664.834793214; owner earnings 63846535.16520679. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3202418911582383.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 20565000; owner earnings 81525800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 18933000; upkeep 23115000; owner earnings 88211800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2146311491206392.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 53758976.81571615; upkeep 69353023.18428385; owner earnings 55583176.81571615. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9671807171790835.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 32600000; upkeep 32857000; owner earnings 125262800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2602528444198916.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 73749159.50966224; upkeep 43855840.49033776; owner earnings 141251959.50966224. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5221107003801776.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 56478446.61022381; upkeep 56497553.38977619; owner earnings 151709446.6102238. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3722803547977459.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Incremental return on capital 0.3369673277980996, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2016,11606000],[2017,13218000],[2018,16129000],[2019,24059000],[2020,25920000],[2021,28813000],[2022,32805000],[2023,36470000],[2024,47014000],[2025,61735000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: cash repurchases 5905000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); LOTB.BR SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

A description of the double materiality process is included in I.4 Impact, risk and opportunity management.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); Estimates and judgements are continuously evaluated and are based on historical experience a acts, risks and opportunities connected to our value chain have been assessed as part of our Double Materiality Assessment . A description of the double materiality process is included in I.4 Impact, risk and opportunity management. For more information regarding the potential impact of sustainability initiatives and requirements on the financial statements, please refer to Note 1.2 of the Consolidated Financial Statements.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 22.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.31428932631998463. Price 12860; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 56.946754375077575 → FY2025 186.60448537542902. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 2,505.05 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 2,311.20 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 2,500.00 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 2,456.50 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 2,350.00 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 2,321.70 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 2,310.00 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 2,442.00 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 2,331.00 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 2,357.85 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 2,225.00 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 2,240.10 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 2,180.00 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 2,150.00 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 2,116.95 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 2,160.00 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 2,210.00 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 2,380.00 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 2,350.00 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 2,350.00 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 2,390.00 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 2,440.00 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 2,530.00 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 2,520.00 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 2,280.00 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 2,160.00 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 2,150.00 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 2,330.00 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 2,520.00 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 2,370.00 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 2,340.00 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 2,300.00 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 2,350.00 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 2,360.00 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 2,560.00 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 2,580.00 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 2,530.00 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 2,610.00 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 2,590.00 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 2,730.00 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 2,800.00 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 2,790.00 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 2,770.00 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 2,780.00 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 2,830.00 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 2,810.00 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 3,270.00 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 3,350.00 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 3,360.00 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 3,560.00 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 3,680.00 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 3,920.00 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 4,210.00 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 4,510.00 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 4,530.00 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 4,730.00 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 4,770.00 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 4,920.00 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 5,530.00 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 5,300.00 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 5,740.00 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 5,250.00 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 5,590.00 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 5,690.00 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 5,260.00 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 4,750.00 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 5,400.00 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 4,565.00 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 5,240.00 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 5,560.00 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 5,660.00 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 5,250.00 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 5,630.00 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 6,120.00 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 6,320.00 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 5,970.00 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 6,150.00 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 6,450.00 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 6,260.00 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 5,830.00 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 7,270.00 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 7,280.00 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 7,270.00 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 7,690.00 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 7,000.00 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 7,980.00 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 8,230.00 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 7,890.00 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 8,700.00 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 8,950.00 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 9,430.00 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 9,780.00 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 9,630.00 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 10,040.00 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 11,380.00 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 12,040.00 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 12,020.00 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 11,380.00 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 10,780.00 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 10,300.00 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 8,690.00 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 8,210.00 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 8,460.00 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 9,110.00 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 8,170.00 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 7,440.00 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 8,370.00 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 8,020.00 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 7,570.00 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 7,740.00 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 7,850.00 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 9,900.00 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 10,520.00 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 9,740.00 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 10,260.00 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 11,000.00 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 11,620.00 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 11,140.00 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 12,760.00 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 12,240.00 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 12,660.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 975.29 per share, central EUR 1,417.18 per share, high EUR 1,663.63 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 891.30 per share, central EUR 1,136.05 per share, high EUR 1,320.16 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 934.02 per share, central EUR 1,185.65 per share, high EUR 1,378.42 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 940.02 per share, central EUR 1,101.76 per share, high EUR 1,276.32 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 1,074.93 per share, central EUR 1,268.60 per share, high EUR 1,463.41 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 1,306.63 per share, central EUR 1,586.92 per share, high EUR 1,827.42 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 1,455.06 per share, central EUR 1,847.23 per share, high EUR 2,146.62 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 2,089.72 per share, central EUR 2,735.00 per share, high EUR 3,178.90 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 2,440.14 per share, central EUR 3,343.44 per share, high EUR 3,906.12 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 2,642.83 per share, central EUR 3,622.59 per share, high EUR 4,229.53 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:35:42.894Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/5493004C0K34IFI67I03/2025-12-31/ESEF/BE/1/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/5493004C0K34IFI67I03-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations