# Magellan Financial Group (MFG.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MFG.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 8.41 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 5.35 per share, central AUD 5.92 per share, high AUD 6.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 5.92 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.76×

- FY2018: 0.78×

- FY2019: 0.82×

- FY2020: 0.75×

- FY2021: 0.54×

- FY2022: 0.65×

- FY2023: 0.70×

- FY2024: 0.79×

- FY2025: 0.74×

- FY2026: 0.30×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 9.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 87.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 86.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 3

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 46.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 68.0%

- FY2018: 73.9%

- FY2019: 82.2%

- FY2020: 76.1%

- FY2021: 17.6%

- FY2022: 18.3%

- FY2023: 9.5%

- FY2024: 32.5%

- FY2025: 22.6%

- FY2026: 8.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 1.1B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 1.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.01×

- FY2025: 1.02×

- FY2026: 1.03×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 73.9% vs 22.6%

- Per-share earnings: 1.15 to 0.96 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: AUD -3.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 85M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -2.2%

- Per-share value change: AUD -0.19

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 1.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.96

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.09

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 413M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 2.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 73.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 22.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 1.14

- FY2018: AUD 1.20

- FY2019: AUD 2.09

- FY2020: AUD 2.16

- FY2021: AUD 1.44

- FY2022: AUD 2.09

- FY2023: AUD 1.01

- FY2024: AUD 1.33

- FY2025: AUD 0.96

- FY2026: AUD 0.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.90×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.46×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.20×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 6.4%

- FY2018: 6.1%

- FY2019: 7.8%

- FY2020: -0.2%

- FY2021: -6.8%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -0.2%

- FY2024: 17.6%

- FY2025: 1.1%

- FY2026: -3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 76% since Oct 2021 · sales -34%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.044Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -34%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 339M 

- FY2018: AUD 451M 

- FY2019: AUD 616M 

- FY2020: AUD 687M 

- FY2021: AUD 699M 

- FY2022: AUD 669M 

- FY2023: AUD 381M 

- FY2024: AUD 349M 

- FY2025: AUD 314M 

- FY2026: AUD 207M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 86.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 86.0% 

- FY2018: 88.5% 

- FY2019: 89.8% 

- FY2020: 88.1% 

- FY2021: 64.3% 

- FY2022: 95.5% 

- FY2023: 87.2% 

- FY2024: 79.1% 

- FY2025: 99.9% 

- FY2026: 86.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in asset management; annual sales are AUD 206.8 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2026: revenue 206784000; grossProfit 178712000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 79.1% to 99.9% during 2024–26; it earns 27.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 79.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 99.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 86.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.6799116740810077],[2018,0.7393854973083208],[2019,0.8219245790056703],[2020,0.7612911903160726],[2021,0.17637389700578704],[2022,0.18280474917592845],[2023,0.09511445699131316],[2024,0.3249893690746254],[2025,0.2255983026332698],[2026,0.08064019917340605]]; median 0.2752938358539476. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 40.4 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 368000; owner earnings 196249000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 139000; owner earnings 213550000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 372000; owner earnings 381509000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 263000; owner earnings 403055000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 272000; owner earnings 271955000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 261000; owner earnings 389892000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 112000; owner earnings 188579000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 458000; owner earnings 242259000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 324000; owner earnings 168824000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 198000; owner earnings 90230000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,126708000],[2018,156948000],[2019,287596000],[2020,364641000],[2021,398523000],[2022,381819000],[2023,211118000],[2024,178729000],[2025,111286000],[2026,146374000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 40397000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 37.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MFG.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 37.653999999999996 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:39.325Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0758154792918958. Price 8.41; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.1525148718533742 → FY2026 0.4637670134853764. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 21.29 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 22.82 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 23.77 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 23.50 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 22.83 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 23.63 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 23.58 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 25.18 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 28.84 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 26.41 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 24.73 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 24.56 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 24.27 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 25.30 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 26.96 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 27.55 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 25.42 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 23.84 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 23.36 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 23.09 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 23.30 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 24.68 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 28.02 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 27.69 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 26.64 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 26.09 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 23.54 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 28.54 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 34.86 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 36.43 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 44.61 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 43.43 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 51.00 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 61.88 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 50.74 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 51.44 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 48.17 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 52.49 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 56.95 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 67.27 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 55.76 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 43.52 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 51.02 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 58.35 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 58.01 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 61.16 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 59.25 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 56.64 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 55.10 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 59.18 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 53.66 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 47.92 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 43.44 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 45.17 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 48.50 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 47.88 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 53.86 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 48.87 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 43.34 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 35.37 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 34.67 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 33.16 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 21.24 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 18.61 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 18.40 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 15.94 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 16.31 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 15.68 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 12.92 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 14.58 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 13.02 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 11.26 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 9.93 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 9.79 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 8.94 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 8.92 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 8.56 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 8.68 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 8.12 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 7.89 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 9.49 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 9.33 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 8.95 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 9.22 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 6.49 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 7.44 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 9.28 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 9.07 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 8.11 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 9.89 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 8.93 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 8.17 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 8.42 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 10.22 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 9.53 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 10.02 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 10.76 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 10.93 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 11.12 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 10.51 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 8.07 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 7.66 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 7.67 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 8.37 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 8.56 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 10.69 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 10.22 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 9.61 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 9.62 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 9.51 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 9.98 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 8.73 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 8.46 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 9.81 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 10.20 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 8.45 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 9.69 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 9.55 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 8.98 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 8.37 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 8.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 16.30 per share, central AUD 22.94 per share, high AUD 26.81 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 21.01 per share, central AUD 29.63 per share, high AUD 34.65 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 28.52 per share, central AUD 40.30 per share, high AUD 47.16 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 32.26 per share, central AUD 45.09 per share, high AUD 52.56 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 34.74 per share, central AUD 38.05 per share, high AUD 42.45 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 41.68 per share, central AUD 55.82 per share, high AUD 63.71 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 26.19 per share, central AUD 28.03 per share, high AUD 30.49 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 14.10 per share, central AUD 15.81 per share, high AUD 18.07 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 11.74 per share, central AUD 13.23 per share, high AUD 15.21 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 8.04 per share, central AUD 8.91 per share, high AUD 10.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations