# Morgan Stanley (MS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:23.581Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $182.10 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $79.75 per share, central $99.69 per share, high $132.92 per share. Buy at or below the central value $99.69 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:23.581Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.2% at the stated quote. About 8.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.20×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $5.5B

- FY2017: $5.6B

- FY2018: $8.2B

- FY2019: $8.5B

- FY2020: $11B

- FY2021: $15B

- FY2022: $11B

- FY2023: $8.5B

- FY2024: $13B

- FY2025: $16B

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- median cost/income ratio exceeds 65%

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 12.1%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 9.3%

- Cost / income, median: 72.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.3%

- FY2017: 9.3%

- FY2018: 11.5%

- FY2019: 11.8%

- FY2020: 12.3%

- FY2021: 18.2%

- FY2022: 13.9%

- FY2023: 11.3%

- FY2024: 15.7%

- FY2025: 18.3%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 12.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $29.75

- Ending book value per share: $55.84

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 8.3%

- FY2018: 29.2%

- FY2019: 11.2%

- FY2020: 22.8%

- FY2021: -11.3%

- FY2022: 7.2%

- FY2023: 11.2%

- FY2024: 18.8%

- FY2025: 18.8%

### management: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.4%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -2.0%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: -0.4%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 32.81×

- Book value created per share: $26.09

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $0.80

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 97

- FY2017: 93

- FY2018: 89

- FY2019: 84

- FY2020: 83

- FY2021: 93

- FY2022: 88

- FY2023: 84

- FY2024: 82

- FY2025: 82

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Deposits, annualized growth: 10.3%

- Known restatement years: 0

- Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 3

## Holders

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever · "Morgan Stanley Sees Wealth, AI Financing and Deal Rebound Powering Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · net income +26.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.316Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever

- 2025-07-16: Morgan Stanley earnings top estimates on increased trading revenue ([cnbc.com](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/16/morgan-stanley-ms-earnings-q2-2025.html))

- 2025-10-15: Morgan Stanley profit beats estimates on dealmaking boost, shares soar ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-profit-beats-estimates-190339247.html))

- 2026-01-15: Morgan Stanley Fourth-Quarter Results Top Street Views Amid Investment Banking Revenue Surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-fourth-quarter-results-161800051.html))

- 2026-02-23: Morgan Stanley’s Advisor Recruiting Costs Pile Up ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a08ba13d-8c43-34ff-8c32-f4e946223c81/morgan-stanley%E2%80%99s-advisor.html))

- 2026-04-15: Morgan Stanley's Quarterly Results Beat Estimates Amid Investment Banking, Trading Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/morgan-stanley-apos-quarterly-results-145838187.html))

- 2026-07-15: AI stock frenzy drives record revenue at Morgan Stanley, capping big bank earnings blowout ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/ai-stock-frenzy-drives-record-revenue-at-morgan-stanley-capping-big-bank-earnings-blowout-122105807.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +26.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-19.

- FY2016: $5.5B 

- FY2017: $5.6B 

- FY2018: $8.2B 

- FY2019: $8.5B 

- FY2020: $11B 

- FY2021: $15B 

- FY2022: $11B 

- FY2023: $8.5B 

- FY2024: $13B 

- FY2025: $16B 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in capital markets; annual sales are USD 70.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm#000089542126000086 (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: revenue 70645000000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 12.1% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.0929902755267423],[2017,0.0934042055293685],[2018,0.11516212619931368],[2019,0.11773330198204678],[2020,0.12328863631026465],[2021,0.18151231183331673],[2022,0.13892000896258122],[2023,0.11331632924172379],[2024,0.1573409381453437],[2025,0.18278662706983442]]; median 0.12051096914615572. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 5.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Dividend observations: [[2016,1746000000],[2017,2085000000],[2018,2375000000],[2019,2627000000],[2020,2739000000],[2021,4171000000],[2022,5401000000],[2023,5763000000],[2024,6138000000],[2025,6593000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-19); FY2025: cash repurchases 5835000000 USD.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 7.8% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-19); Price 182.1; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 3.9875785715174725; discount 0.1; growth 0.07810225935465419. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.57 per share

- 2016-11: $41.36 per share

- 2016-12: $42.25 per share

- 2017-01: $42.49 per share

- 2017-02: $45.67 per share

- 2017-03: $42.84 per share

- 2017-04: $43.37 per share

- 2017-05: $41.74 per share

- 2017-06: $44.56 per share

- 2017-07: $46.90 per share

- 2017-08: $45.50 per share

- 2017-09: $48.17 per share

- 2017-10: $50.00 per share

- 2017-11: $51.61 per share

- 2017-12: $52.47 per share

- 2018-01: $56.55 per share

- 2018-02: $56.02 per share

- 2018-03: $53.96 per share

- 2018-04: $51.62 per share

- 2018-05: $50.14 per share

- 2018-06: $47.40 per share

- 2018-07: $50.56 per share

- 2018-08: $48.83 per share

- 2018-09: $46.57 per share

- 2018-10: $45.66 per share

- 2018-11: $44.39 per share

- 2018-12: $39.65 per share

- 2019-01: $42.30 per share

- 2019-02: $41.98 per share

- 2019-03: $42.20 per share

- 2019-04: $48.25 per share

- 2019-05: $40.69 per share

- 2019-06: $43.81 per share

- 2019-07: $44.56 per share

- 2019-08: $41.49 per share

- 2019-09: $42.67 per share

- 2019-10: $46.05 per share

- 2019-11: $49.48 per share

- 2019-12: $51.12 per share

- 2020-01: $52.26 per share

- 2020-02: $45.03 per share

- 2020-03: $34.00 per share

- 2020-04: $39.43 per share

- 2020-05: $44.20 per share

- 2020-06: $48.30 per share

- 2020-07: $48.88 per share

- 2020-08: $52.26 per share

- 2020-09: $48.35 per share

- 2020-10: $48.15 per share

- 2020-11: $61.83 per share

- 2020-12: $68.53 per share

- 2021-01: $67.05 per share

- 2021-02: $76.87 per share

- 2021-03: $77.66 per share

- 2021-04: $82.55 per share

- 2021-05: $90.95 per share

- 2021-06: $91.69 per share

- 2021-07: $95.98 per share

- 2021-08: $104.43 per share

- 2021-09: $97.31 per share

- 2021-10: $102.78 per share

- 2021-11: $94.82 per share

- 2021-12: $98.16 per share

- 2022-01: $102.54 per share

- 2022-02: $90.74 per share

- 2022-03: $87.40 per share

- 2022-04: $80.59 per share

- 2022-05: $86.14 per share

- 2022-06: $76.06 per share

- 2022-07: $84.30 per share

- 2022-08: $85.22 per share

- 2022-09: $79.01 per share

- 2022-10: $82.17 per share

- 2022-11: $93.07 per share

- 2022-12: $85.02 per share

- 2023-01: $97.33 per share

- 2023-02: $96.50 per share

- 2023-03: $87.80 per share

- 2023-04: $89.97 per share

- 2023-05: $81.76 per share

- 2023-06: $85.40 per share

- 2023-07: $91.56 per share

- 2023-08: $85.15 per share

- 2023-09: $81.67 per share

- 2023-10: $70.82 per share

- 2023-11: $79.34 per share

- 2023-12: $93.25 per share

- 2024-01: $87.24 per share

- 2024-02: $86.04 per share

- 2024-03: $94.16 per share

- 2024-04: $90.84 per share

- 2024-05: $97.84 per share

- 2024-06: $97.19 per share

- 2024-07: $103.21 per share

- 2024-08: $103.61 per share

- 2024-09: $104.24 per share

- 2024-10: $116.25 per share

- 2024-11: $131.61 per share

- 2024-12: $125.72 per share

- 2025-01: $138.43 per share

- 2025-02: $133.11 per share

- 2025-03: $116.67 per share

- 2025-04: $115.42 per share

- 2025-05: $128.03 per share

- 2025-06: $140.86 per share

- 2025-07: $142.46 per share

- 2025-08: $150.48 per share

- 2025-09: $158.96 per share

- 2025-10: $164.00 per share

- 2025-11: $169.66 per share

- 2025-12: $177.53 per share

- 2026-01: $182.80 per share

- 2026-02: $166.51 per share

- 2026-03: $164.57 per share

- 2026-04: $190.59 per share

- 2026-05: $208.00 per share

- 2026-06: $209.04 per share

- 2026-07: $210.42 per share

- 2026-08: $213.32 per share

- 2026-09: $188.08 per share

- 2026-10: $186.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $11.03 per share, central $13.22 per share, high $16.48 per share

- FY2017: low $11.71 per share, central $14.02 per share, high $17.48 per share

- FY2018: low $20.29 per share, central $25.36 per share, high $33.81 per share

- FY2019: low $26.00 per share, central $32.50 per share, high $43.34 per share

- FY2020: low $30.93 per share, central $38.66 per share, high $51.55 per share

- FY2021: low $27.85 per share, central $34.81 per share, high $46.41 per share

- FY2022: low $42.48 per share, central $53.10 per share, high $70.80 per share

- FY2023: low $56.36 per share, central $70.45 per share, high $93.94 per share

- FY2024: low $64.43 per share, central $80.54 per share, high $107.39 per share

- FY2025: low $74.92 per share, central $93.65 per share, high $124.87 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/895421/000089542126000086/ms-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-19.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): 205,191 MS shares; USD 38,592,000 reported position value; 3.18% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q3.
- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): 1,036 MS shares; USD 217,001 reported position value; 0% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): 454,492 MS shares; USD 95,007,000 reported position value; 0.28% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Robert Torray](https://gigainvestors.com/T): 2,377 MS shares; USD 497,000 reported position value; 0.07% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Andreas Halvorsen](https://gigainvestors.com/vg): 1,622,593 MS shares; USD 339,187,000 reported position value; 0.97% of portfolio; new; quarter 2026 Q2.

# MS — Morgan Stanley

Held by 1 investor · USD 38,592,000 total · 2026 Q3 · reported price USD 188.08 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MS

## Holders (2026 Q3)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| David Katz (https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX) | USD 38,592,000 | 3.2% | reduce -1.37% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2006 Q4: USD 55,722,549 · 2 holders · USD 81.43
- 2007 Q1: USD 44,066,990 · 2 holders · USD 78.77
- 2007 Q2: USD 6,458,760 · 1 holder · USD 83.88
- 2007 Q3: USD 7,182,000 · 1 holder · USD 63.00
- 2007 Q4: USD 5,948,320 · 1 holder · USD 53.11
- 2008 Q1: USD 6,055,250 · 1 holder · USD 45.70
- 2008 Q2: USD 4,166,085 · 1 holder · USD 36.07
- 2008 Q3: USD 2,576,000 · 1 holder · USD 23.00
- 2008 Q4: USD 1,988,960 · 1 holder · USD 16.04
- 2009 Q1: USD 2,231,460 · 1 holder · USD 22.77
- 2009 Q2: USD 38,702,325 · 2 holders · USD 28.51
- 2009 Q3: USD 54,219,104 · 2 holders · USD 30.88
- 2009 Q4: USD 45,814,880 · 2 holders · USD 29.60
- 2010 Q1: USD 55,366,887 · 2 holders · USD 29.29
- 2010 Q2: USD 96,882,727 · 3 holders · USD 23.21
- 2010 Q3: USD 788,047,460 · 3 holders · USD 24.68
- 2010 Q4: USD 876,955,695 · 3 holders · USD 27.21
- 2011 Q1: USD 1,034,478,352 · 2 holders · USD 29.68
- 2011 Q2: USD 842,164,614 · 2 holders · USD 24.16
- 2011 Q3: USD 1,491,750 · 1 holder · USD 13.50
- 2011 Q4: USD 1,671,865 · 1 holder · USD 15.13
- 2012 Q1: USD 2,170,220 · 1 holder · USD 19.64
- 2012 Q2: USD 1,612,195 · 1 holder · USD 14.59
- 2012 Q3: USD 1,648,890 · 1 holder · USD 16.74
- 2012 Q4: USD 1,701,680 · 1 holder · USD 19.12
- 2013 Q1: USD 1,802,360 · 1 holder · USD 21.98
- 2013 Q2: USD 2,003,260 · 1 holder · USD 24.43
- 2013 Q3: USD 2,236,850 · 1 holder · USD 26.95
- 2013 Q4: USD 2,414,720 · 1 holder · USD 31.36
- 2014 Q1: USD 2,609,850 · 2 holders · USD 31.16
- 2014 Q2: USD 2,409,330 · 1 holder · USD 32.34
- 2014 Q3: USD 2,316,190 · 1 holder · USD 34.57
- 2014 Q4: USD 2,249,820 · 1 holder · USD 38.79
- 2015 Q1: USD 2,070,020 · 1 holder · USD 35.69
- 2015 Q2: USD 2,249,820 · 1 holder · USD 38.79
- 2015 Q3: USD 1,796,070 · 1 holder · USD 31.51
- 2015 Q4: USD 1,813,170 · 1 holder · USD 31.81
- 2016 Q1: USD 1,476,180 · 1 holder · USD 25.02
- 2016 Q2: USD 988,772,820 · 2 holders · USD 25.98
- 2016 Q3: USD 1,345,206,130 · 2 holders · USD 32.07
- 2016 Q4: USD 1,138,130,130 · 2 holders · USD 42.25
- 2017 Q1: USD 767,334,071 · 2 holders · USD 42.85
- 2017 Q2: USD 798,141,787 · 2 holders · USD 44.56
- 2017 Q3: USD 862,803,275 · 2 holders · USD 48.19
- 2017 Q4: USD 943,684,237 · 2 holders · USD 52.47
- 2018 Q1: USD 970,401,049 · 2 holders · USD 53.96
- 2018 Q2: USD 887,978,087 · 2 holders · USD 47.40
- 2018 Q3: USD 970,265,684 · 2 holders · USD 46.57
- 2018 Q4: USD 1,041,108,329 · 2 holders · USD 39.65
- 2019 Q1: USD 1,108,364,114 · 2 holders · USD 42.20
- 2019 Q2: USD 1,200,703,342 · 3 holders · USD 43.81
- 2019 Q3: USD 1,019,584,716 · 4 holders · USD 42.67
- 2019 Q4: USD 830,950,128 · 3 holders · USD 51.12
- 2020 Q1: USD 630,851,300 · 4 holders · USD 34.00
- 2020 Q2: USD 1,192,930,740 · 4 holders · USD 48.30
- 2020 Q3: USD 1,047,150,134 · 4 holders · USD 48.35
- 2020 Q4: USD 1,278,791,799 · 4 holders · USD 68.53
- 2021 Q1: USD 489,101,204 · 3 holders · USD 77.66
- 2021 Q2: USD 77,907,251 · 3 holders · USD 91.69
- 2021 Q3: USD 76,746,548 · 3 holders · USD 97.31
- 2021 Q4: USD 52,088,710 · 3 holders · USD 98.16
- 2022 Q1: USD 50,782,284 · 3 holders · USD 87.40
- 2022 Q2: USD 46,653,170 · 3 holders · USD 76.06
- 2022 Q3: USD 36,063,857 · 3 holders · USD 79.01
- 2022 Q4: USD 40,172,175 · 3 holders · USD 85.02
- 2023 Q1: USD 23,998,198 · 2 holders · USD 87.80
- 2023 Q2: USD 23,972,976 · 2 holders · USD 85.40
- 2023 Q3: USD 25,312,855 · 3 holders · USD 81.67
- 2023 Q4: USD 29,505,546 · 2 holders · USD 93.30
- 2024 Q1: USD 104,740,381 · 4 holders · USD 94.17
- 2024 Q2: USD 107,736,635 · 4 holders · USD 97.20
- 2024 Q3: USD 115,736,995 · 4 holders · USD 104.24
- 2024 Q4: USD 135,481,072 · 4 holders · USD 125.72
- 2025 Q1: USD 125,868,783 · 4 holders · USD 116.68
- 2025 Q2: USD 157,024,508 · 4 holders · USD 140.86
- 2025 Q3: USD 173,864,010 · 3 holders · USD 158.96
- 2025 Q4: USD 135,611,617 · 3 holders · USD 177.53
- 2026 Q1: USD 122,646,944 · 3 holders · USD 164.57
- 2026 Q2: USD 478,397,101 · 5 holders · USD 209.04
- 2026 Q3: USD 38,592,000 · 1 holder · USD 188.08