# MSC Industrial Direct Company (MSM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MSM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:30:25.755Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $130.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $58.94 per share, central $67.07 per share, high $77.88 per share. Buy at or below the central value $67.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:30:25.755Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.5% at the stated quote. About 6.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 41.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 40.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.8%

- FY2017: 22.2%

- FY2018: 28.4%

- FY2019: 26.8%

- FY2020: 23.3%

- FY2021: 20.6%

- FY2022: 24.6%

- FY2023: 30.0%

- FY2024: 25.1%

- FY2025: 20.5%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.03×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $1.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.15×

- FY2022: 1.08×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 23.8% vs 25.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.79 to 4.58 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Market cap gain: $1.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$736M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 2.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.80

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.79

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $4.58

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.20

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $268M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $2.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 23.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.79

- FY2017: $4.06

- FY2018: $5.81

- FY2019: $5.20

- FY2020: $4.51

- FY2021: $3.87

- FY2022: $6.06

- FY2023: $6.11

- FY2024: $4.58

- FY2025: $3.57

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -5.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.67×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.58×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.2%

- FY2017: -0.7%

- FY2018: -0.5%

- FY2019: -1.7%

- FY2020: -6.1%

- FY2021: -0.3%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: -14.0%

- FY2024: -6.2%

- FY2025: -5.5%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.3% a year for ten years · "MSM Q3 Earnings Call Shows Early Gains in Volume, Cost Reset" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2026) · sales -1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:12.874Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 9.3% a year for ten years

- 2026-06-07: MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Is Up 5.5% After Announcing Major 1,000-Job Cost-Cutting Plan ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/msc-industrial-direct-msm-5-230828042.html))

- 2026-07-02: MSM Q3 Earnings Call Shows Early Gains in Volume, Cost Reset ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/msm-q3-earnings-call-shows-091400496.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-23.

- FY2016: $2.9B 

- FY2017: $2.9B 

- FY2018: $3.2B 

- FY2019: $3.4B 

- FY2020: $3.2B 

- FY2021: $3.2B 

- FY2022: $3.7B 

- FY2023: $4.0B 

- FY2024: $3.8B 

- FY2025: $3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 40.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm; observed 2025-10-23.

- FY2016: 45.0% 

- FY2017: 44.5% 

- FY2018: 43.5% 

- FY2019: 42.6% 

- FY2020: 39.9% 

- FY2021: 41.1% 

- FY2022: 42.2% 

- FY2023: 41.0% 

- FY2024: 41.1% 

- FY2025: 40.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in industrial distribution; annual sales are USD 3.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-23); FY2025: revenue 3769521000; grossProfit 1536135000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MSM.US: MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the distribution of metalworking and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) products and services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company's metalworking and MRO products include cutting tools, abrasives, machining fluids, measuring instruments, metalworking products, machinery and accessories, tooling components, fasteners, flat stock products, raw materials, machinery hand and power tools, safety and janitorial supplies, plumbing supplies, materials handling products, power transmission components, and electrical supplies. It also offers stock-keeping units through its catalogs and brochures; e-commerce channels, including its website; inventory management solutions; and customer care centers, customer fulfillment centers, regional inventory centers and warehouses. In addition, the company serves individual machine shops, manufacturing companies, and government agencies. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Melville, New York.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 40.8% to 41.1% during 2023–25; it earns 24.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 41%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 41.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-23); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 40.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.23766541823935766],[2017,0.22227615838947007],[2018,0.28431424283754203],[2019,0.268439073021018],[2020,0.23324444458271745],[2021,0.20590130349288432],[2022,0.24609603831281812],[2023,0.30029964269308634],[2024,0.2512958312886622],[2025,0.2052837020088158]]; median 0.2418807282760879. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 42% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-23); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.41116956460608334],[2022,0.4220729040630376],[2023,0.40979033153567146]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 0.4% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 87930000; owner earnings 214816000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 46548000; cash acquisitions 42345000; owner earnings 247462000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1711171816278863.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 44919000; cash acquisitions 87000000; owner earnings 346930000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.25077104891476665.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 51773000; cash acquisitions 11625000; owner earnings 302081000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.038483055869121194.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 46991000; cash acquisitions 2286000; owner earnings 295514000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0077356741135783755.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 53746000; cash acquisitions 22000000; owner earnings 249872000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08804507908048921.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 61373000; cash acquisitions 57865000; owner earnings 365551000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.15829528574672208.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2023: growth capex 17762000; upkeep 74731000; cash acquisitions 20182000; owner earnings 343233000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.11054881086608805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 99406000; cash acquisitions 23990000; owner earnings 241698000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09925609645094291.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-23); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 92840000; cash acquisitions 790000; owner earnings 196666000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0040169627693653195.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); Dividend observations: [[2016,105778000],[2017,102216000],[2018,125430000],[2019,145709000],[2020,444171000],[2021,362650000],[2022,167376000],[2023,176715000],[2024,187280000],[2025,189650000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm (filed 2025-10-23); FY2025: cash repurchases 39317000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 26.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MSM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 26.759 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 9.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 1.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-10-23); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12046303315903006. Price 130.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.054222843853172 → FY2025 3.518552975274627. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $72.80 per share

- 2016-11: $89.34 per share

- 2016-12: $92.39 per share

- 2017-01: $102.15 per share

- 2017-02: $100.59 per share

- 2017-03: $102.76 per share

- 2017-04: $89.53 per share

- 2017-05: $83.94 per share

- 2017-06: $85.96 per share

- 2017-07: $71.21 per share

- 2017-08: $68.88 per share

- 2017-09: $75.57 per share

- 2017-10: $82.90 per share

- 2017-11: $90.07 per share

- 2017-12: $96.66 per share

- 2018-01: $93.88 per share

- 2018-02: $87.48 per share

- 2018-03: $91.71 per share

- 2018-04: $86.44 per share

- 2018-05: $91.83 per share

- 2018-06: $84.85 per share

- 2018-07: $84.63 per share

- 2018-08: $85.48 per share

- 2018-09: $88.11 per share

- 2018-10: $81.06 per share

- 2018-11: $88.59 per share

- 2018-12: $76.92 per share

- 2019-01: $83.49 per share

- 2019-02: $84.41 per share

- 2019-03: $82.71 per share

- 2019-04: $83.65 per share

- 2019-05: $70.66 per share

- 2019-06: $74.26 per share

- 2019-07: $71.05 per share

- 2019-08: $67.62 per share

- 2019-09: $72.53 per share

- 2019-10: $73.21 per share

- 2019-11: $73.41 per share

- 2019-12: $78.47 per share

- 2020-01: $68.07 per share

- 2020-02: $61.82 per share

- 2020-03: $54.97 per share

- 2020-04: $59.64 per share

- 2020-05: $69.34 per share

- 2020-06: $72.81 per share

- 2020-07: $66.01 per share

- 2020-08: $65.90 per share

- 2020-09: $63.28 per share

- 2020-10: $69.66 per share

- 2020-11: $83.32 per share

- 2020-12: $84.39 per share

- 2021-01: $77.57 per share

- 2021-02: $86.13 per share

- 2021-03: $90.19 per share

- 2021-04: $90.16 per share

- 2021-05: $94.40 per share

- 2021-06: $89.73 per share

- 2021-07: $89.17 per share

- 2021-08: $84.21 per share

- 2021-09: $80.19 per share

- 2021-10: $84.07 per share

- 2021-11: $78.70 per share

- 2021-12: $84.06 per share

- 2022-01: $81.64 per share

- 2022-02: $77.48 per share

- 2022-03: $85.21 per share

- 2022-04: $82.86 per share

- 2022-05: $84.93 per share

- 2022-06: $75.11 per share

- 2022-07: $82.66 per share

- 2022-08: $79.21 per share

- 2022-09: $72.81 per share

- 2022-10: $82.98 per share

- 2022-11: $85.83 per share

- 2022-12: $81.70 per share

- 2023-01: $82.70 per share

- 2023-02: $84.52 per share

- 2023-03: $84.00 per share

- 2023-04: $90.73 per share

- 2023-05: $89.92 per share

- 2023-06: $95.28 per share

- 2023-07: $100.92 per share

- 2023-08: $102.06 per share

- 2023-09: $98.15 per share

- 2023-10: $94.75 per share

- 2023-11: $97.42 per share

- 2023-12: $101.26 per share

- 2024-01: $98.68 per share

- 2024-02: $100.94 per share

- 2024-03: $97.04 per share

- 2024-04: $91.24 per share

- 2024-05: $85.90 per share

- 2024-06: $79.31 per share

- 2024-07: $88.95 per share

- 2024-08: $82.24 per share

- 2024-09: $86.06 per share

- 2024-10: $79.07 per share

- 2024-11: $85.88 per share

- 2024-12: $74.69 per share

- 2025-01: $80.41 per share

- 2025-02: $80.36 per share

- 2025-03: $77.67 per share

- 2025-04: $76.48 per share

- 2025-05: $81.20 per share

- 2025-06: $85.02 per share

- 2025-07: $86.62 per share

- 2025-08: $90.23 per share

- 2025-09: $92.14 per share

- 2025-10: $84.91 per share

- 2025-11: $88.96 per share

- 2025-12: $84.10 per share

- 2026-01: $84.34 per share

- 2026-02: $93.84 per share

- 2026-03: $92.27 per share

- 2026-04: $102.27 per share

- 2026-05: $109.47 per share

- 2026-06: $118.95 per share

- 2026-07: $123.40 per share

- 2026-08: $118.88 per share

- 2026-09: $123.72 per share

- 2026-10: $130.70 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $51.85 per share, central $67.96 per share, high $79.54 per share

- FY2017: low $55.02 per share, central $70.77 per share, high $82.77 per share

- FY2018: low $65.43 per share, central $88.84 per share, high $104.13 per share

- FY2019: low $62.63 per share, central $79.02 per share, high $92.27 per share

- FY2020: low $62.51 per share, central $77.64 per share, high $90.42 per share

- FY2021: low $58.54 per share, central $68.82 per share, high $80.06 per share

- FY2022: low $71.17 per share, central $86.77 per share, high $101.14 per share

- FY2023: low $77.73 per share, central $98.70 per share, high $115.29 per share

- FY2024: low $65.53 per share, central $77.27 per share, high $89.90 per share

- FY2025: low $56.79 per share, central $64.62 per share, high $75.05 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1003078/000100307825000123/msm-20250830.htm); period 2025-08-30, filed 2025-10-23.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): 373,664 MSM shares; USD 44,447,000 reported position value; 0.13% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# MSM — MSC Industrial Direct

Held by 1 investor · USD 44,447,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 118.95 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MSM

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Richard Pzena (https://gigainvestors.com/PIM) | USD 44,447,000 | 0.1% | reduce -15.96% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2019 Q3: USD 13,431,250 · 1 holder · USD 72.53
- 2019 Q4: USD 14,468,063 · 1 holder · USD 78.47
- 2020 Q1: USD 84,154,123 · 1 holder · USD 54.97
- 2020 Q2: USD 90,229,356 · 1 holder · USD 72.81
- 2020 Q3: USD 82,860,857 · 1 holder · USD 63.28
- 2020 Q4: USD 107,541,806 · 1 holder · USD 84.39
- 2021 Q1: USD 116,014,734 · 1 holder · USD 90.19
- 2021 Q2: USD 112,330,923 · 1 holder · USD 89.73
- 2021 Q3: USD 100,303,817 · 1 holder · USD 80.19
- 2021 Q4: USD 104,893,935 · 1 holder · USD 84.06
- 2022 Q1: USD 106,282,689 · 1 holder · USD 85.21
- 2022 Q2: USD 93,502,561 · 1 holder · USD 75.11
- 2022 Q3: USD 26,621,884 · 1 holder · USD 72.81
- 2022 Q4: USD 24,275,684 · 1 holder · USD 81.70
- 2023 Q1: USD 25,203,780 · 1 holder · USD 84.00
- 2023 Q2: USD 27,729,815 · 1 holder · USD 95.28
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q1: USD 44,822,873 · 1 holder · USD 97.04
- 2024 Q2: USD 36,633,368 · 1 holder · USD 79.31
- 2024 Q3: USD 39,753,782 · 1 holder · USD 86.06
- 2024 Q4: USD 34,501,626 · 1 holder · USD 74.69
- 2025 Q1: USD 35,878,181 · 1 holder · USD 77.67
- 2025 Q2: USD 39,273,374 · 1 holder · USD 85.02
- 2025 Q3: USD 40,971,525 · 1 holder · USD 92.14
- 2025 Q4: USD 37,396,411 · 1 holder · USD 84.10
- 2026 Q1: USD 41,024,165 · 1 holder · USD 92.27
- 2026 Q2: USD 44,447,000 · 1 holder · USD 118.95