# Metcash (MTS.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/MTS.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 3.15 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 1.10 per share, central AUD 1.25 per share, high AUD 1.45 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 1.25 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.7% at the stated quote. About 5.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.24×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.02×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.02×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.02×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- FY2026: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 10.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 4.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 27.4%

- FY2018: 18.7%

- FY2019: 24.7%

- FY2020: 11.3%

- FY2021: 15.2%

- FY2022: 17.1%

- FY2023: 17.4%

- FY2024: 16.2%

- FY2025: 15.3%

- FY2026: 13.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.39×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 518M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 1.3B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.39×

- FY2023: 0.28×

- FY2024: 0.39×

- FY2025: 0.46×

- FY2026: 0.42×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 24.7% vs 15.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.18 to 0.25 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Market cap gain: AUD 904M

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 533M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.6%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.08

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.25

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.11

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 990M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 1.7B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 24.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 15.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.18

- FY2018: AUD -0.16

- FY2019: AUD 0.21

- FY2020: AUD -0.05

- FY2021: AUD 0.24

- FY2022: AUD 0.25

- FY2023: AUD 0.27

- FY2024: AUD 0.23

- FY2025: AUD 0.26

- FY2026: AUD 0.25

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.00×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.91×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -11.4%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -3.7%

- FY2021: -4.9%

- FY2022: -3.6%

- FY2023: -2.1%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: -3.7%

- FY2026: -4.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Apr 2022 · sales +0.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.224Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +0.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 14B 

- FY2018: AUD 14B 

- FY2019: AUD 13B 

- FY2020: AUD 13B 

- FY2021: AUD 14B 

- FY2022: AUD 15B 

- FY2023: AUD 16B 

- FY2024: AUD 16B 

- FY2025: AUD 17B 

- FY2026: AUD 17B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 4.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 8.8% 

- FY2018: 8.9% 

- FY2019: 9.9% 

- FY2020: 9.9% 

- FY2021: 10.1% 

- FY2022: 10.9% 

- FY2023: 11.5% 

- FY2024: 12.2% 

- FY2025: 12.9% 

- FY2026: 4.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in food distribution; annual sales are AUD 17.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2026: revenue 17354000000; grossProfit 858200000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTS.AU: Metcash Limited operates as a wholesale and distribution company in Australia. The company operates through Food, Liquor, and Hardware segments. Its Food segment distributes a range of products and services to independent supermarket, convenience retail outlets, and food service customers. The Liquor segment engages in the distribution of liquor products to independent retail outlets and hotels. Its Hardware segment distributes hardware products to independent retail outlets; and operates company owned retail stores. The company sells its products under the IGA, Foodland, Mitre 10, Home Hardware, Total Tools, Cellarbrations, IGA Liquor, and the Bottle-O brand names. Metcash Limited was founded in 1927 and is based in Macquarie Park, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 4.9% to 12.9% during 2024–26; it earns 16.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2740767586518051],[2018,0.1866624347580759],[2019,0.247286364453543],[2020,0.11266565473757954],[2021,0.15201165557426885],[2022,0.17056786130810567],[2023,0.17357509380821234],[2024,0.1619586616243109],[2025,0.15298186330855768],[2026,0.1389111440909649]]; median 0.1662632614662083. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 11% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.10129721347090176],[2022,0.10885735387212492],[2023,0.11457028234430565]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 200000 of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 44400000; owner earnings 191000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 54200000; owner earnings 193820000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 85600000; owner earnings 112880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 121700000; owner earnings 96380000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 152100000; owner earnings 73620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 135900000; owner earnings 100940000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 148500000; owner earnings 129080000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 175200000; owner earnings 118460000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,1400000],[2018,105300000],[2019,128800000],[2020,118200000],[2021,148300000],[2022,198500000],[2023,217200000],[2024,147300000],[2025,167000000],[2026,193800000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 200000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); MTS.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.17500000000000002 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 7.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:07.690Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16853518436117282. Price 3.15; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.22719109377169183 → FY2026 0.107102284670929. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 1.99 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 2.06 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 2.28 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 2.11 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 2.16 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 2.40 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 2.62 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 2.56 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 2.69 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 3.24 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 3.13 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 3.60 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 2.90 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 2.61 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 2.63 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 2.76 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 2.77 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 2.45 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 2.48 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 2.61 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 2.65 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 2.82 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 2.90 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 2.99 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 2.82 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 2.62 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.15 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 2.49 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 2.70 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 2.71 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 2.92 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 2.76 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 3.42 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 3.37 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 3.68 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 3.55 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 3.54 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 3.99 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 4.01 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 4.08 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 3.93 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 4.07 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 4.07 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 4.50 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.95 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 4.12 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 4.54 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 4.79 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 4.31 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 4.14 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 4.12 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 3.87 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 4.10 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 3.98 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 4.18 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 4.07 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.55 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 3.76 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.60 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.73 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 3.78 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 3.68 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 3.64 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 3.71 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 3.94 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 3.54 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 3.66 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 3.58 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 3.58 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 3.06 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 3.10 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 3.17 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 3.14 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 3.16 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 3.91 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 3.70 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 3.32 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 2.96 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 3.07 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 3.04 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 2.94 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 2.91 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 3.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 1.99 per share, central AUD 2.56 per share, high AUD 2.99 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 1.78 per share, central AUD 2.02 per share, high AUD 2.35 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 2.06 per share, central AUD 2.34 per share, high AUD 2.72 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 1.86 per share, central AUD 2.12 per share, high AUD 2.46 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 1.23 per share, central AUD 1.40 per share, high AUD 1.62 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 1.09 per share, central AUD 1.24 per share, high AUD 1.44 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 1.13 per share, central AUD 1.29 per share, high AUD 1.50 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 1.01 per share, central AUD 1.14 per share, high AUD 1.33 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 1.09 per share, central AUD 1.24 per share, high AUD 1.44 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 1.09 per share, central AUD 1.24 per share, high AUD 1.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:45:57.637Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations