# Nick Scali (NCK.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NCK.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 14.29 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 8.03 per share, central AUD 8.98 per share, high AUD 10.25 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 8.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.1% at the stated quote. About 7.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.22×

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.25×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.27×

- FY2023: 0.38×

- FY2024: 0.37×

- FY2025: 0.20×

- FY2026: 0.23×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 25.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 36.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 20.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 25.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 62.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 74.3%

- FY2018: 51.4%

- FY2019: 53.4%

- FY2020: 20.1%

- FY2021: 38.4%

- FY2022: 26.6%

- FY2023: 43.1%

- FY2024: 34.3%

- FY2025: 18.9%

- FY2026: 20.8%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.73×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 285M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 390M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.67×

- FY2023: 0.85×

- FY2024: 0.60×

- FY2025: 0.82×

- FY2026: 0.71×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 53.4% vs 20.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.46 to 0.88 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: AUD 902M

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 151M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 8.5%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.46

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.88

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 224M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 637M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 53.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.46

- FY2018: AUD 0.51

- FY2019: AUD 0.52

- FY2020: AUD 0.52

- FY2021: AUD 1.04

- FY2022: AUD 0.92

- FY2023: AUD 1.25

- FY2024: AUD 0.94

- FY2025: AUD 0.67

- FY2026: AUD 0.88

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.33×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.99×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.58×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -1.2%

- FY2019: -1.9%

- FY2020: -13.7%

- FY2021: -12.9%

- FY2022: -7.7%

- FY2023: -6.1%

- FY2024: -7.2%

- FY2025: -8.2%

- FY2026: -10.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Oct 2025 · sales +4.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.114Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +4.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 233M 

- FY2018: AUD 251M 

- FY2019: AUD 268M 

- FY2020: AUD 262M 

- FY2021: AUD 373M 

- FY2022: AUD 441M 

- FY2023: AUD 508M 

- FY2024: AUD 468M 

- FY2025: AUD 495M 

- FY2026: AUD 517M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 62.5% 

- FY2018: 62.7% 

- FY2019: 62.9% 

- FY2020: 62.7% 

- FY2021: 63.5% 

- FY2022: 61.0% 

- FY2023: 63.5% 

- FY2024: 65.5% 

- FY2025: 63.5% 

- FY2026: 37.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty retail; annual sales are AUD 516.7 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2026: revenue 516703999; grossProfit 194066000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NCK.AU: Nick Scali Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the sourcing and retailing of household furniture and related accessories in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The company offers recliner, leather, fabric, and quick ship sofas, as well as occasional armchairs and ottomans; TV and entertainment units; coffee, bedside, side, and console and hallway tables; dining tables and chairs, and buffet tables and sideboards; mattresses, bed frames, tallboy, dressers, and daybeds; and rugs and mirrors. It sells its products through a showroom network of stores, as well as online. Nick Scali Limited was incorporated in 1962 and is based in North Ryde, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 37.6% to 65.5% during 2024–26; it earns 36.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 65.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 63.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.7428806931544638],[2018,0.5138822425868146],[2019,0.5342477222498546],[2020,0.20131809854530472],[2021,0.38434668510617775],[2022,0.2664621558099214],[2023,0.4305900740164014],[2024,0.3434855783551302],[2025,0.18884387002631214],[2026,0.2078917486952425]]; median 0.36391613173065396. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2017: growth capex 6691318.09833656; upkeep 7586681.90166344; owner earnings 32463318.09833656. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.20611935225066927.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2018: growth capex 4692718.376215182; upkeep 24128281.623784818; owner earnings 20630718.376215182. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22746267437906284.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2019: growth capex 1030000; upkeep 4253000; owner earnings 42116000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.024456263652768543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 8645000; owner earnings 27177400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 15637000; owner earnings 60810400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 18979000; owner earnings 49910800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 12888000; owner earnings 85660400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 27898000; owner earnings 48387000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 14572000; owner earnings 47469400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 21991000; owner earnings 54039200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,25110000],[2018,29160000],[2019,39690000],[2020,36450000],[2021,50625000],[2022,48600000],[2023,60750000],[2024,56700000],[2025,53785000],[2026,61582000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NCK.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.172 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 13.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:44:39.322Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09278906462687997. Price 14.29; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.18263739994383155 → FY2026 0.6318105662645108. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 5.80 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 6.30 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 6.15 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 6.59 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 7.18 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 7.21 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 6.45 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 6.09 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 6.11 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 6.40 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 6.47 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 6.65 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 6.63 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 6.63 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 7.03 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 7.07 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 6.72 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 6.94 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 6.72 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 6.73 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 6.18 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 6.75 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 5.18 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 5.28 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 6.14 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 6.32 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 7.07 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 6.26 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 6.30 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 6.85 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 7.50 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 6.14 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 6.33 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 6.93 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 7.03 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 7.15 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 4.65 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 6.48 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 7.30 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 8.75 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 8.52 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 8.30 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 8.73 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 9.65 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 10.30 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 10.17 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 9.97 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 11.23 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 11.16 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 11.72 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 12.27 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 12.37 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 11.36 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 14.47 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 15.19 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 15.35 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 13.57 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 11.90 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 11.35 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 10.23 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 9.15 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 8.26 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 9.64 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 11.04 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 9.28 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 10.07 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 11.30 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 10.64 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 11.95 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 9.83 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 9.35 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 9.71 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 8.60 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 9.11 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 10.70 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 12.51 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 11.08 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 10.78 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 10.99 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 12.32 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 12.42 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 14.65 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 15.40 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 15.58 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 13.90 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 13.81 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 15.69 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 15.44 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 16.60 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 14.08 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 14.10 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 15.01 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 16.17 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 16.77 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 15.81 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 17.80 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 19.12 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 18.21 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 19.23 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 24.28 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 23.36 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 25.42 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 23.88 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 23.57 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 24.56 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 18.65 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 15.68 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 14.89 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 14.43 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 16.32 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 15.88 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 14.89 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 14.07 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 14.20 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 3.64 per share, central AUD 5.01 per share, high AUD 5.81 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 3.85 per share, central AUD 5.33 per share, high AUD 6.19 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 4.08 per share, central AUD 5.67 per share, high AUD 6.59 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 5.27 per share, central AUD 7.22 per share, high AUD 8.36 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 9.95 per share, central AUD 13.69 per share, high AUD 15.86 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 9.19 per share, central AUD 12.78 per share, high AUD 14.87 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 14.37 per share, central AUD 20.11 per share, high AUD 23.45 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 7.96 per share, central AUD 8.90 per share, high AUD 10.14 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 8.23 per share, central AUD 9.22 per share, high AUD 10.53 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 8.03 per share, central AUD 8.98 per share, high AUD 10.25 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:50:28.593Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations