# Neste Oil Oyj (NESTE.HE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NESTE.HE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:24.580Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 32.08 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 9.53 per share, central EUR 10.72 per share, high EUR 12.31 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 10.72 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:24.580Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FI 10-year bond 3.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.51×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.00×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 9.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 19.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 9.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 15.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 5.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 23.0%

- FY2017: 20.6%

- FY2018: 18.5%

- FY2019: 33.8%

- FY2020: 13.6%

- FY2021: 27.5%

- FY2022: 21.6%

- FY2023: 14.5%

- FY2024: 0.2%

- FY2025: 3.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.64×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 3.3B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 5.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -5.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 14.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.95×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.47×

- FY2024: 9.37×

- FY2025: -0.23×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 20.6% vs 3.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.19 to 0.19 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: EUR 5.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 3.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -20.6%

- Per-share value change: EUR -1.00

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.19

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.19

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 610M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 10B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 20.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 1.22

- FY2017: EUR 1.19

- FY2018: EUR 1.01

- FY2019: EUR 2.34

- FY2020: EUR 0.93

- FY2021: EUR 2.31

- FY2022: EUR 2.46

- FY2023: EUR 1.87

- FY2024: EUR -0.13

- FY2025: EUR 0.19

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 12.13×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.4%

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: -8.2%

- FY2019: 3.4%

- FY2020: -13.7%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: 4.6%

- FY2023: -5.3%

- FY2024: -8.2%

- FY2025: -10.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 36% since Jul 2022 · "Biofuel maker Neste expects limited impact from tariffs, but supply glut still weighs" (ca.finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2025) · sales -7.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.507Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.5% a year for ten years

- 2026-07-29: Neste Oyj (HLSE:NESTE) Earnings Beat And 2026 Guidance Put Valuation Back In Focus ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/neste-oyj-hlse-neste-earnings-140810283.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -7.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/1/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: EUR 12B 

- FY2017: EUR 13B 

- FY2018: EUR 15B 

- FY2019: EUR 16B 

- FY2020: EUR 12B 

- FY2021: EUR 15B 

- FY2022: EUR 26B 

- FY2023: EUR 23B 

- FY2024: EUR 21B 

- FY2025: EUR 19B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 5.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/1/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml; observed 2026-03-04.

- FY2016: 15.4% 

- FY2017: 14.5% 

- FY2018: 12.4% 

- FY2019: 19.6% 

- FY2020: 15.4% 

- FY2021: 18.6% 

- FY2022: 13.3% 

- FY2023: 16.0% 

- FY2024: 10.0% 

- FY2025: 5.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas refining & marketing; annual sales are EUR 19 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/1/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: revenue 19016000000; grossProfit 1126000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NESTE.HE: Neste Oyj, together with its subsidiaries, provides renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in Finland, other Nordic countries, Baltic Rim, other European countries, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Renewable Products, Oil Products, Marketing & Services segments. It produces, markets, and sells renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and related solutions. The company also provides various oil products, including diesel, gasoline, aviation and marine fuels, light and heavy fuel oils, gasoline components, and special fuels, such as small-engine gasoline, solvents, and liquid gases for retailers and distributors, oil majors and trading companies, and companies marketing lubricants and solvents. In addition, the company markets and sells lower emission fuels, oil products, and associated digital solutions to consumers, transport service providers, aviation, shipping, industrial and agricultural, and municipalities and heating fuel customers and fuel distributors; and markets transport fuels and electric vehicle charging services. The company was formerly known as Neste Oil Oyj and changed its name to Neste Oyj in June 2015. Neste Oyj was founded in 1948 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 5.9% to 16% during 2023–25; it earns 19.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 10%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/1/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml (filed 2026-03-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 5.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.22976216244753583],[2017,0.2064424764286235],[2018,0.185182221764567],[2019,0.33768806254266426],[2020,0.13579214149769364],[2021,0.27464788947969376],[2022,0.21578690359659675],[2023,0.14475164477429825],[2024,0.001779920692141312],[2025,0.03382726077585902]]; median 0.19581234909659526. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2016: growth capex 41000000; upkeep 366000000; owner earnings 939000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.043663471778487756.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2017: growth capex 104000000; upkeep 371000000; owner earnings 911000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1141602634467618.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 381000000; owner earnings 1011000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2019: growth capex 65000000; upkeep 502000000; owner earnings 1704200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03814106325548645.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 762000000; owner earnings 382400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2021: growth capex 393000000; upkeep 584000000; owner earnings 1682200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23362263702294614.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2022: growth capex 1105000000; upkeep 638000000; owner earnings 1866000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5921757770632369.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1430000000; owner earnings 675600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,256000000],[2017,332000000],[2018,435000000],[2019,583000000],[2020,783000000],[2021,614000000],[2022,630000000],[2023,1168000000],[2024,922000000],[2025,154000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 46.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NESTE.HE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 46.219 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21145608136879923. Price 32.08; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5373895286259054 → FY2025 -0.042954946249043925. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 13.11 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 12.92 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 12.17 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 10.75 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 10.96 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 12.19 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 12.50 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 11.80 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 11.50 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 12.21 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 12.35 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 12.32 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 15.94 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 17.40 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 17.78 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 18.56 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 20.08 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 18.87 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 23.30 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 23.21 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 22.40 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 23.54 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 24.93 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 23.73 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 24.25 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 23.01 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 22.45 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 26.71 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 28.17 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 31.67 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 29.44 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 30.26 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 29.84 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 29.99 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 28.64 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 30.37 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 32.36 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 30.68 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 31.02 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 35.88 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 35.66 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 30.85 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 32.33 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 36.32 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 34.81 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 38.88 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 44.81 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 44.97 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 44.68 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 56.18 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 59.16 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 58.28 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 54.46 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 45.26 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 50.40 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 53.90 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 51.64 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 51.82 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 51.54 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 48.97 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 48.19 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 41.77 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 43.36 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 39.77 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 35.18 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 41.48 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 41.20 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 42.71 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 42.24 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 50.08 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 49.25 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 44.80 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 44.34 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 49.34 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 43.02 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 43.83 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 45.69 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 45.43 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 43.94 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 35.37 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 35.26 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 33.46 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 33.78 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 32.13 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 31.71 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 34.88 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 32.33 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 32.05 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 25.37 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 25.10 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 21.34 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 19.27 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 16.63 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 18.66 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 21.15 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 17.43 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 14.68 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 14.41 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 12.13 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 12.24 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 8.60 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 8.53 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 9.16 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 9.45 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 11.52 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 13.84 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 15.69 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 15.59 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 17.96 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 19.41 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 21.56 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 21.18 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 27.95 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 29.37 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 28.13 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 28.64 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 30.56 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 31.88 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 32.74 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 32.61 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 6.75 per share, central EUR 7.58 per share, high EUR 8.69 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 7.64 per share, central EUR 8.61 per share, high EUR 9.88 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 15.59 per share, central EUR 17.57 per share, high EUR 20.21 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 19.44 per share, central EUR 25.06 per share, high EUR 29.05 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 13.24 per share, central EUR 14.83 per share, high EUR 16.94 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 16.70 per share, central EUR 18.74 per share, high EUR 21.47 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 30.16 per share, central EUR 37.63 per share, high EUR 43.77 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 25.57 per share, central EUR 29.43 per share, high EUR 33.98 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 10.52 per share, central EUR 11.87 per share, high EUR 13.66 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 9.26 per share, central EUR 10.36 per share, high EUR 11.82 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14/2025-12-31/ESEF/FI/1/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi/reports/5493009GY1X8GQ66AM14-2025-12-31-1-fi.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations