# Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NEU.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 19.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 5.59 per share, central AUD 6.99 per share, high AUD 7.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 6.99 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 4

- Operating margin variation: 1.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.81×

- FY2017: -10.62×

- FY2018: 0.42×

- FY2019: -23.38×

- FY2020: -13.29×

- FY2021: -3.58×

- FY2022: -0.11×

- FY2023: 0.74×

- FY2024: 0.82×

- FY2025: 0.34×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -60.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -62712.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 99.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 100.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 2

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -286.4%

- FY2017: -32.2%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: -304703.0%

- FY2020: -62712.8%

- FY2021: -365.6%

- FY2022: -89.5%

- FY2023: 64.4%

- FY2024: 96.2%

- FY2025: 40.7%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 322M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 322M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 113.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 14.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 91.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 42.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -32.2% vs 64.4%

- Per-share earnings: -0.15 to 1.09 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.6%

- Market cap gain: AUD 2.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 309M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: AUD 1.23

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 1.09

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.07

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 0

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 296M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -32.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 64.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: AUD -0.15

- FY2017: AUD 0.03

- FY2018: AUD 0.03

- FY2019: AUD -0.11

- FY2020: AUD -0.08

- FY2021: AUD -0.06

- FY2022: AUD 0.00

- FY2023: AUD 1.20

- FY2024: AUD 1.09

- FY2025: AUD 0.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -27.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.51×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.12×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.9%

- FY2017: 49.5%

- FY2018: -12.5%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: 5.4%

- FY2022: -7.9%

- FY2023: -11.2%

- FY2024: 37.4%

- FY2025: -27.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 23% since Dec 2023 · sales -69.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.089Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 23.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -69.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: AUD 3.2M 

- FY2017: AUD 631K 

- FY2018: AUD 14M 

- FY2019: AUD 495K 

- FY2020: AUD 717K 

- FY2021: AUD 3.2M 

- FY2022: AUD 15M 

- FY2023: AUD 232M 

- FY2024: AUD 213M 

- FY2025: AUD 65M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 100%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 97.5% 

- FY2017: 87.6% 

- FY2018: 56.4% 

- FY2019: 99.2% 

- FY2020: 99.2% 

- FY2021: 99.7% 

- FY2022: 99.9% 

- FY2023: 88.5% 

- FY2024: 100.0% 

- FY2025: 100.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in biotechnology; annual sales are AUD 64.6 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2025: revenue 64634000; grossProfit 64611000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NEU.AU: Neuren Pharmaceuticals Limited, a biopharmaceutical company, develops drugs for the treatment of neurological disorders. It develops and commercializes DAYBUE (trofinetide) for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adults and pediatric patients 2 years of age and older, as well as in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat Fragile X syndrome. The company also develops NNZ-2591, which has completed Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Phelan-McDermid; and in Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of Angelman and Pitt Hopkins. In addition, it develops NNZ-2591, which is in preclinical trial stage for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome, Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy, and SYNGAP1. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 88.5% to 100% during 2023–25; it lost 60.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 88.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-2.864434616304088],[2017,-0.3223696864781689],[2018,5.320219579139982],[2019,-3047.03],[2020,-627.1283333333333],[2021,-3.655748987854251],[2022,-0.894847409510291],[2023,0.6436579358364615],[2024,0.9621850977817868],[2025,0.40676327801907897]]; median -0.6086085479942299. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid no dividends in 10 years; bought back AUD 39.6 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 12000; owner earnings 3354000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 12000; owner earnings 3138000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2022: growth capex 9000; upkeep 10000; owner earnings 184000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04891304347826087.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2023: growth capex 23000; upkeep 17000; owner earnings 157081000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0001464212731011389.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 10000; owner earnings 142055000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 37000; owner earnings 30422000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 39573000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NEU.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.343 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 23.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:41:42.780Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.32436221879744587. Price 19.19; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.1560627627916357 → FY2025 0.2295066384316116. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 1.30 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 1.16 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 1.46 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 1.40 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 1.38 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 1.30 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 1.18 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 1.22 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 1.54 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 2.50 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 2.78 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 2.94 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 3.47 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 3.05 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 3.05 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 2.71 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 1.26 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 1.38 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 1.40 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 1.31 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 1.16 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 1.19 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 1.22 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 1.15 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 1.53 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 2.02 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 2.29 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 2.52 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 2.48 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 2.83 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 1.82 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 0.99 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 1.51 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 1.69 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 1.37 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 1.29 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 1.27 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 1.11 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 1.01 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 1.21 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 1.29 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 1.30 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 1.37 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 1.44 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 1.30 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 1.30 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 1.63 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 1.61 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 2.18 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 2.10 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 1.89 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 1.80 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 3.77 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.44 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 3.76 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 3.98 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 3.83 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.80 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 5.64 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 5.77 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 6.54 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 7.33 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 8.00 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 7.95 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 7.74 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 7.33 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 13.50 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 14.20 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 13.84 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 12.25 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 13.03 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 12.58 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 11.06 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 10.72 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 15.50 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 24.97 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 23.62 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 19.36 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 21.22 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 19.20 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 21.64 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 21.27 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 19.30 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 15.59 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 15.14 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 12.35 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 12.47 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 12.50 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 14.49 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 13.23 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 11.93 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 11.66 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 13.88 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 14.11 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 17.29 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 19.01 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 19.74 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 21.76 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 19.64 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 18.61 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 16.69 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 13.05 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 11.81 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 12.46 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 14.54 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 17.75 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 18.00 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 19.74 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 20.35 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 19.64 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2024: low AUD 1.95 per share, central AUD 2.07 per share, high AUD 2.14 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 5.34 per share, central AUD 6.68 per share, high AUD 7.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:47:22.686Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations