# Nickel Industries (NIC.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NIC.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 0.71 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 0.61 per share, central AUD 0.68 per share, high AUD 0.78 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 0.68 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.7% at the stated quote. About 9.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.49×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.34×

- FY2020: 0.30×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.16×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 22.5pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 22.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 32.5%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 1

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 41.5%

- FY2020: 27.9%

- FY2021: 17.8%

- FY2022: 16.8%

- FY2023: 11.1%

- FY2024: 4.1%

- FY2025: 3.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 2.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $444M

- Net income, five-year total: $153M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 47.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.28×

- FY2022: 1.41×

- FY2023: 1.30×

- FY2024: 0.65×

- FY2025: -0.74×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 41.5% vs 4.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.04 to -0.01 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 11.5%

- Market cap gain: $2.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$61M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 11.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: -$0.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.04

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.01

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.20

- Average buyback yield: 0.7%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 41.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: $0.02

- FY2019: $0.07

- FY2020: $0.04

- FY2021: $0.04

- FY2022: $0.06

- FY2023: $0.03

- FY2024: -$0.04

- FY2025: -$0.01

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.62×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 14.1%

- FY2019: 8.3%

- FY2020: -3.2%

- FY2021: -5.0%

- FY2022: -2.5%

- FY2023: -2.7%

- FY2024: -11.5%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 54% since Feb 2022 · sales -2.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.615Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: $45M 

- FY2019: $478M 

- FY2020: $401M 

- FY2021: $468M 

- FY2022: $1.2B 

- FY2023: $1.9B 

- FY2024: $1.7B 

- FY2025: $1.7B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 10%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 47.6% 

- FY2019: 35.3% 

- FY2020: 38.6% 

- FY2021: 39.1% 

- FY2022: 29.6% 

- FY2023: 23.9% 

- FY2024: 18.0% 

- FY2025: 10.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in other industrial metals & mining; annual sales are USD 1.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2025: revenue 1706607410; grossProfit 171125095; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 10% to 23.9% during 2023–25; it earns 17.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 23.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,1.000001],[2019,0.4146112920841484],[2020,0.2790653896380506],[2021,0.17752115117330886],[2022,0.16844037573421083],[2023,0.1105860218609475],[2024,0.04092940205375438],[2025,0.035576407711270984]]; median 0.17298076345375984. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 13632340; owner earnings 36952094. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 29974317; owner earnings 116536656. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 7387864; owner earnings 131434691. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 6494484; owner earnings 128230419. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 9393090; owner earnings 224794710.36810294. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 58994541; owner earnings 157978132.17966413. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 16683718; owner earnings 43539545. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); Dividend observations: [[2018,15441648],[2019,15441648],[2020,15441648],[2021,75088707],[2022,100855990],[2023,85569052],[2024,174126232],[2025,17606933]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50.8% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NIC.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50.760000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:42.092Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0064555618308029805. Price 0.705; FX 1.4454626926079037; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2018-08: AUD 0.35 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 0.31 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 0.26 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 0.25 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 0.25 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 0.31 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 0.41 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 0.40 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 0.41 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 0.40 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 0.53 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 0.53 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 0.66 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 0.61 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 0.60 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 0.63 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 0.60 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 0.48 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 0.45 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 0.53 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 0.53 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 0.58 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 0.57 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 0.67 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 0.66 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 0.88 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 1.06 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 1.11 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 1.26 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 1.40 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 1.03 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 0.99 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 1.10 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 1.02 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 0.94 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 1.05 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 1.42 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 1.43 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 1.43 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 1.53 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 1.27 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 1.32 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 1.29 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 0.98 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 1.09 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 0.99 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 0.79 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 0.73 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 0.98 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 0.97 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 1.10 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 0.98 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 0.90 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 0.95 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 0.90 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 0.89 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 0.83 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 0.80 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 0.75 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 0.75 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 0.72 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 0.70 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 0.80 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 0.71 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 0.81 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 0.95 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 0.96 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 0.80 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 0.84 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 0.93 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 0.91 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 0.90 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 0.83 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 0.77 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 0.72 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 0.60 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 0.57 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 0.69 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 0.70 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 0.74 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 0.70 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 0.71 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 0.74 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 0.73 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 0.84 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 0.92 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 1.01 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 0.89 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 1.06 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 0.95 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 0.82 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 0.86 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 0.80 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 0.72 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2022: low AUD 1.98 per share, central AUD 2.24 per share, high AUD 2.60 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 2.25 per share, central AUD 2.53 per share, high AUD 2.90 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 1.24 per share, central AUD 1.40 per share, high AUD 1.62 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 0.61 per share, central AUD 0.68 per share, high AUD 0.78 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:46:13.322Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations