# Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVO-B.CO)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NOVO-B.CO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:34.518Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: DKK. Reporting currency: DKK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: DKK 263.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low DKK 269.13 per share, central DKK 315.87 per share, high DKK 366.13 per share. Buy at or below the central value DKK 315.87 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:34.518Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.5% at the stated quote. About 11.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; DK 10-year bond 3.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.02×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.44×

- FY2018: 0.42×

- FY2019: 0.43×

- FY2020: 0.43×

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.44×

- FY2024: 0.44×

- FY2025: 0.41×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.43×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 78.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 51.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 84.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 81.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 10.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 65.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: >100%

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: >100%

- FY2019: 90.3%

- FY2020: 70.5%

- FY2021: 62.7%

- FY2022: 74.6%

- FY2023: 82.9%

- FY2024: 51.0%

- FY2025: 36.0%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.75×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: DKK 294B

- Net income, five-year total: DKK 390B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 22.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.01×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.89×

- FY2024: 0.81×

- FY2025: 0.33×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 117.4% vs 51.0%

- Per-share earnings: 7.53 to 22.63 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- Market cap gain: DKK 806B

- Cumulative retained earnings: DKK 149B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 14.7%

- Per-share value change: DKK 15.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: DKK 7.53

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: DKK 22.63

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: DKK 128B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: DKK 586B

- ROIC, first three-year median: >100%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 51.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: DKK 7.53

- FY2017: DKK 7.73

- FY2018: DKK 8.00

- FY2019: DKK 8.22

- FY2020: DKK 9.05

- FY2021: DKK 10.42

- FY2022: DKK 12.24

- FY2023: DKK 18.77

- FY2024: DKK 22.63

- FY2025: DKK 23.02

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.81×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.16×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.67×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -10.7%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -5.4%

- FY2019: -6.2%

- FY2020: -6.8%

- FY2021: -3.7%

- FY2022: -9.7%

- FY2023: -8.0%

- FY2024: -4.3%

- FY2025: -3.1%

## Holders

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 74% since Jun 2024 · "Novo Nordisk (NVO) Raised Its Outlook, Then Aimed for Average Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.739Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-29: Novo Nordisk cuts full-year sales and profit guidance, stock plunges ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nordisk-cuts-full-sales-120408697.html))

- 2025-08-19: Novo Nordisk Soars After 50% Ozempic Discount, Liver Treatment Approval ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nordisk-soars-50-ozempic-103000858.html))

- 2026-01-05: Novo Nordisk Stock Rises on Launch of Weight-Loss Pills ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/bfd61aed-0231-3a5c-ba68-1e425e1ccdb8/novo-nordisk-stock-rises-on.html))

- 2026-02-03: Novo Nordisk Stock Dives on Forecast for 2026 Sales Drop ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/395ae202-3742-3026-8e94-25cada7eaa37/novo-nordisk-stock-dives-on.html))

- 2026-04-30: Eli Lilly, Novo Stocks Jump as FDA Moves to Limit Compounded GLP-1 Drugs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/eli-lilly-novo-stocks-jump-190358412.html))

- 2026-09-21: Novo Nordisk Stock Drops 5.6% as 2030 Goals Match Peers ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/novo-nordisk-stock-drops-5-122029338.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2017: DKK 112B 

- FY2018: DKK 112B 

- FY2019: DKK 122B 

- FY2020: DKK 127B 

- FY2021: DKK 141B 

- FY2022: DKK 177B 

- FY2023: DKK 232B 

- FY2024: DKK 290B 

- FY2025: DKK 309B 

- FY2026: DKK 329B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 81%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-04.

- FY2016: 84.6% 

- FY2017: 84.2% 

- FY2018: 84.2% 

- FY2019: 83.5% 

- FY2020: 83.5% 

- FY2021: 83.2% 

- FY2022: 83.9% 

- FY2023: 84.6% 

- FY2024: 84.7% 

- FY2025: 81.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in drug manufacturers general; annual sales are DKK 309.1 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: revenue 309064000000; grossProfit 250276000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 81% to 84.7% during 2023–25; it earns 78.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 84.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 84.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 81%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,1.5495803465604285],[2017,1.1744741079997119],[2018,1.0439663551813714],[2019,0.9034954261241247],[2020,0.7046145819651227],[2021,0.6273764127419802],[2022,0.7461852691381369],[2023,0.8293884832120091],[2024,0.5097498115133674],[2025,0.3600763157650767]]; median 0.787786876175073. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 84% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.8319744318181819],[2022,0.8392350554381365],[2023,0.8460137517706373]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 26.1% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 22.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2016: growth capex 1005694263.7806282; upkeep 7261305736.219372; owner earnings 33847694263.78063. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.029712341878979642.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 8648000000; owner earnings 32679000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2018: growth capex 39348457.70973396; upkeep 12370651542.290266; owner earnings 30173348457.709732. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0013040799155878855.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2019: growth capex 3283439115.3233957; upkeep 7947560884.676604; owner earnings 35546639115.323395. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09236988916648313.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2020: growth capex 1743851885.1606445; upkeep 20337148114.839355; owner earnings 27155451885.160645. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.064217376773376.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 7385000000; owner earnings 48458200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2022: growth capex 7522000000; upkeep 7231000000; owner earnings 54619200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1377171397603773.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2023: growth capex 21811613664.475147; upkeep 17084386335.524853; owner earnings 74866413664.47514. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29134043687770467.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); FY2024: growth capex 24618626532.93467; upkeep 26690373467.06533; owner earnings 81489426532.93466. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30210823146466537.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: growth capex 8939916539.61119; upkeep 81173083460.38881; owner earnings 34212516539.61119. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2613054356659374.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Incremental return on capital 0.22357176808794618, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Dividend observations: [[2016,23830000000],[2017,18844000000],[2018,19048000000],[2019,19409000000],[2020,20121000000],[2021,21517000000],[2022,25303000000],[2023,31767000000],[2024,44140000000],[2025,51763000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-04); FY2025: cash repurchases 1388000000 DKK.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NOVO-B.CO SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.272 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 1.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-04); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.020803986011807718. Price 263.45; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 6.7929381503566 → FY2025 7.6892427157844185. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (DKK per share)

- 2016-10: DKK 121.20 per share

- 2016-11: DKK 119.00 per share

- 2016-12: DKK 127.35 per share

- 2017-01: DKK 123.70 per share

- 2017-02: DKK 124.60 per share

- 2017-03: DKK 119.75 per share

- 2017-04: DKK 132.85 per share

- 2017-05: DKK 140.70 per share

- 2017-06: DKK 139.40 per share

- 2017-07: DKK 134.05 per share

- 2017-08: DKK 149.00 per share

- 2017-09: DKK 150.50 per share

- 2017-10: DKK 158.90 per share

- 2017-11: DKK 161.40 per share

- 2017-12: DKK 167.25 per share

- 2018-01: DKK 166.70 per share

- 2018-02: DKK 158.30 per share

- 2018-03: DKK 148.75 per share

- 2018-04: DKK 145.90 per share

- 2018-05: DKK 151.23 per share

- 2018-06: DKK 148.00 per share

- 2018-07: DKK 159.08 per share

- 2018-08: DKK 157.38 per share

- 2018-09: DKK 151.20 per share

- 2018-10: DKK 142.45 per share

- 2018-11: DKK 153.00 per share

- 2018-12: DKK 148.95 per share

- 2019-01: DKK 152.10 per share

- 2019-02: DKK 160.93 per share

- 2019-03: DKK 174.20 per share

- 2019-04: DKK 162.75 per share

- 2019-05: DKK 157.35 per share

- 2019-06: DKK 167.25 per share

- 2019-07: DKK 162.00 per share

- 2019-08: DKK 176.15 per share

- 2019-09: DKK 176.08 per share

- 2019-10: DKK 182.93 per share

- 2019-11: DKK 190.60 per share

- 2019-12: DKK 193.33 per share

- 2020-01: DKK 206.25 per share

- 2020-02: DKK 197.90 per share

- 2020-03: DKK 204.58 per share

- 2020-04: DKK 217.15 per share

- 2020-05: DKK 218.13 per share

- 2020-06: DKK 214.70 per share

- 2020-07: DKK 208.45 per share

- 2020-08: DKK 206.58 per share

- 2020-09: DKK 219.68 per share

- 2020-10: DKK 205.28 per share

- 2020-11: DKK 209.85 per share

- 2020-12: DKK 213.33 per share

- 2021-01: DKK 212.70 per share

- 2021-02: DKK 218.98 per share

- 2021-03: DKK 214.88 per share

- 2021-04: DKK 226.53 per share

- 2021-05: DKK 240.65 per share

- 2021-06: DKK 262.70 per share

- 2021-07: DKK 290.00 per share

- 2021-08: DKK 313.85 per share

- 2021-09: DKK 310.70 per share

- 2021-10: DKK 352.15 per share

- 2021-11: DKK 352.35 per share

- 2021-12: DKK 367.50 per share

- 2022-01: DKK 328.05 per share

- 2022-02: DKK 341.05 per share

- 2022-03: DKK 374.45 per share

- 2022-04: DKK 406.15 per share

- 2022-05: DKK 383.85 per share

- 2022-06: DKK 393.60 per share

- 2022-07: DKK 427.00 per share

- 2022-08: DKK 396.25 per share

- 2022-09: DKK 380.70 per share

- 2022-10: DKK 409.55 per share

- 2022-11: DKK 442.00 per share

- 2022-12: DKK 469.00 per share

- 2023-01: DKK 471.50 per share

- 2023-02: DKK 498.10 per share

- 2023-03: DKK 542.90 per share

- 2023-04: DKK 562.30 per share

- 2023-05: DKK 558.10 per share

- 2023-06: DKK 549.70 per share

- 2023-07: DKK 546.10 per share

- 2023-08: DKK 637.00 per share

- 2023-09: DKK 643.90 per share

- 2023-10: DKK 677.00 per share

- 2023-11: DKK 695.50 per share

- 2023-12: DKK 698.10 per share

- 2024-01: DKK 774.80 per share

- 2024-02: DKK 819.70 per share

- 2024-03: DKK 881.30 per share

- 2024-04: DKK 902.60 per share

- 2024-05: DKK 927.30 per share

- 2024-06: DKK 1,005.60 per share

- 2024-07: DKK 912.00 per share

- 2024-08: DKK 938.10 per share

- 2024-09: DKK 786.80 per share

- 2024-10: DKK 763.10 per share

- 2024-11: DKK 757.30 per share

- 2024-12: DKK 624.20 per share

- 2025-01: DKK 607.30 per share

- 2025-02: DKK 644.50 per share

- 2025-03: DKK 469.80 per share

- 2025-04: DKK 435.10 per share

- 2025-05: DKK 453.65 per share

- 2025-06: DKK 439.60 per share

- 2025-07: DKK 314.50 per share

- 2025-08: DKK 358.80 per share

- 2025-09: DKK 344.65 per share

- 2025-10: DKK 315.95 per share

- 2025-11: DKK 317.00 per share

- 2025-12: DKK 325.25 per share

- 2026-01: DKK 369.55 per share

- 2026-02: DKK 237.90 per share

- 2026-03: DKK 230.90 per share

- 2026-04: DKK 272.25 per share

- 2026-05: DKK 292.95 per share

- 2026-06: DKK 314.60 per share

- 2026-07: DKK 306.50 per share

- 2026-08: DKK 292.40 per share

- 2026-09: DKK 253.20 per share

- 2026-10: DKK 256.65 per share

## Annual estimated value (DKK per share)

- FY2016: low DKK 100.83 per share, central DKK 145.40 per share, high DKK 170.26 per share

- FY2017: low DKK 102.48 per share, central DKK 147.95 per share, high DKK 173.32 per share

- FY2018: low DKK 103.06 per share, central DKK 149.08 per share, high DKK 174.74 per share

- FY2019: low DKK 112.17 per share, central DKK 162.37 per share, high DKK 190.37 per share

- FY2020: low DKK 114.22 per share, central DKK 161.00 per share, high DKK 188.65 per share

- FY2021: low DKK 120.99 per share, central DKK 165.97 per share, high DKK 194.11 per share

- FY2022: low DKK 156.90 per share, central DKK 219.36 per share, high DKK 256.75 per share

- FY2023: low DKK 239.23 per share, central DKK 346.36 per share, high DKK 406.10 per share

- FY2024: low DKK 296.23 per share, central DKK 430.03 per share, high DKK 504.65 per share

- FY2025: low DKK 247.15 per share, central DKK 290.67 per share, high DKK 337.45 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:20.441Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/353278/000035327826000012/nvo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-04.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Sarah Ketterer](https://gigainvestors.com/CAU): 1,677,615 NVO shares; USD 80,425,000 reported position value; 0.87% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): 20,397,110 NVO shares; USD 977,837,000 reported position value; 0.51% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): 2,869,774 NVO shares; USD 137,577,000 reported position value; 1.05% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): 1,653,872 NVO shares; USD 79,287,000 reported position value; 0.72% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.