# Northern Star Resources (NST.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/NST.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 24.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 10.77 per share, central AUD 15.12 per share, high AUD 17.66 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 15.12 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.31×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.16×

- FY2020: 0.22×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.11×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.21×

- FY2025: 0.31×

- FY2026: 0.35×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.8%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -12.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 83.6%

- FY2018: 48.6%

- FY2019: 18.1%

- FY2020: 14.5%

- FY2021: 3.8%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: 7.1%

- FY2024: 7.9%

- FY2025: 9.1%

- FY2026: 11.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 4.5B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 4.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 48.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 15.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.07×

- FY2023: 0.99×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.93×

- FY2026: 0.96×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 48.6% vs 9.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.30 to 0.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 8.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- Market cap gain: AUD 24B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 3.6B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 8.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 15.1%

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.63

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.86

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 92M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 6.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 48.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.35

- FY2018: AUD 0.30

- FY2019: AUD 0.24

- FY2020: AUD 0.35

- FY2021: AUD 0.88

- FY2022: AUD 0.37

- FY2023: AUD 0.50

- FY2024: AUD 0.55

- FY2025: AUD 0.93

- FY2026: AUD 1.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.75×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.91×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -15.5%

- FY2018: -13.1%

- FY2019: -13.7%

- FY2020: -11.4%

- FY2021: -0.4%

- FY2022: -10.5%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -10.9%

- FY2025: -7.9%

- FY2026: -6.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.7% a year for ten years · sales +18.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.401Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +18.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 869M 

- FY2018: AUD 964M 

- FY2019: AUD 1.4B 

- FY2020: AUD 2.0B 

- FY2021: AUD 2.8B 

- FY2022: AUD 3.8B 

- FY2023: AUD 4.1B 

- FY2024: AUD 4.9B 

- FY2025: AUD 6.4B 

- FY2026: AUD 7.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 37%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 36.0% 

- FY2018: 35.3% 

- FY2019: 21.4% 

- FY2020: 26.0% 

- FY2021: 20.4% 

- FY2022: 13.9% 

- FY2023: 14.0% 

- FY2024: 23.6% 

- FY2025: 56.6% 

- FY2026: 37.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 7.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2026: revenue 7623100000; grossProfit 2823400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NST.AU: Northern Star Resources Limited engages in the exploration, development, mining, and processing of gold deposits in Western Australia and Alaska. It also sells refined gold. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Subiaco, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 23.6% to 56.6% during 2024–26; it earns 10.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 23.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 56.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 37%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.8360060719693698],[2018,0.4864129473982552],[2019,0.1810786150451978],[2020,0.1446828318606397],[2021,0.038171557908867775],[2022,0.03612457619515193],[2023,0.07105765867570693],[2024,0.07867973254859907],[2025,0.09130141020031979],[2026,0.11119848169216989]]; median 0.10124994594624484. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 53.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 48.8% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2017: growth capex 43658124.13374215; upkeep 188262875.86625785; owner earnings 174358124.13374215. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.25039340352305006.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2018: growth capex 36086000; upkeep 160081000; owner earnings 194113000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18590202613941365.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2019: growth capex 33735000; upkeep 253107000; owner earnings 145030200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23260672604740254.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2020: growth capex 3123000; upkeep 359558000; owner earnings 235566600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.013257397271090213.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2021: growth capex 28900000; upkeep 664200000; owner earnings 1004120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.02878142054734494.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 1060600000; owner earnings 461840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1059200000; owner earnings 577180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2024: growth capex 345500000; upkeep 1159000000; owner earnings 606540000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5696244270781812.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2025: growth capex 900000000; upkeep 1396500000; owner earnings 1250000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.72.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2026: growth capex 851700000; upkeep 1641700000; owner earnings 1598420000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5328386781947173.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); Incremental return on capital 0.4882952599639804, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,60050000],[2018,63333000],[2019,70340000],[2020,48670000],[2021,310500000],[2022,218300000],[2023,255300000],[2024,333700000],[2025,558900000],[2026,762900000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 128900000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); NST.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.48900000000000005 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 16.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:34.331Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.17039348736090731. Price 24.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.23547492555991503 → FY2026 1.1117529329732794. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 4.16 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 3.59 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 4.19 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 4.06 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 4.28 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 4.72 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 4.75 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 4.40 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 5.21 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 4.94 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 5.22 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 5.83 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 6.10 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 6.29 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 6.28 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 6.39 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 6.27 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 7.26 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 7.20 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 6.96 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 8.30 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 8.78 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 7.98 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 9.24 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 8.77 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 9.25 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 8.95 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 8.19 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 9.71 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 11.65 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 13.01 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 11.90 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 11.04 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 9.79 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 9.59 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 11.31 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 12.60 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 13.46 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 10.53 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 12.79 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 14.80 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 13.36 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 15.46 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 13.65 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 13.64 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 14.85 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 12.61 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 12.69 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 12.85 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 10.21 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 9.48 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 10.51 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 11.70 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 9.78 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 10.22 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 9.76 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 8.50 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 9.24 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 9.44 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 9.41 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 8.29 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 10.31 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 10.74 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 9.82 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 8.95 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 6.84 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 7.84 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 7.88 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 7.83 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 8.74 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 10.60 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 10.91 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 12.55 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 10.37 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 12.31 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 13.46 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 12.91 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 12.08 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 11.51 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 11.91 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 10.46 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 11.69 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 12.73 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 13.65 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 13.15 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 12.90 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 14.47 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 14.94 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 14.35 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 13.00 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 14.08 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 15.26 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 15.97 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 17.73 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 17.51 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 15.44 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 17.30 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 17.16 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 18.32 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 19.18 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 20.98 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 18.55 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 15.57 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 18.89 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 23.73 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 24.61 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 27.16 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 26.73 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 28.94 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 30.28 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 20.36 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 21.00 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 18.81 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 18.95 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 19.90 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 23.44 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 24.77 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 24.98 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 4.16 per share, central AUD 5.68 per share, high AUD 6.56 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 4.41 per share, central AUD 6.01 per share, high AUD 6.95 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 5.74 per share, central AUD 8.04 per share, high AUD 9.38 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 7.46 per share, central AUD 10.29 per share, high AUD 11.94 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 7.04 per share, central AUD 9.80 per share, high AUD 11.40 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 5.82 per share, central AUD 8.13 per share, high AUD 9.48 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 6.78 per share, central AUD 9.29 per share, high AUD 10.76 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 8.00 per share, central AUD 11.05 per share, high AUD 12.82 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 9.54 per share, central AUD 13.17 per share, high AUD 15.28 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 10.67 per share, central AUD 14.99 per share, high AUD 17.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:18.209Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations