# Orora (ORA.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORA.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 1.35 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 0.99 per share, central AUD 1.07 per share, high AUD 1.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 1.07 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.9% at the stated quote. About 7.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.22×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.07×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.06×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.07×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.5%

- FY2018: 12.8%

- FY2019: 8.1%

- FY2020: 13.3%

- FY2021: 13.5%

- FY2022: 16.9%

- FY2023: 15.3%

- FY2024: 7.9%

- FY2025: 3.0%

- FY2026: 7.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.63×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 576M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 911M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -3.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.90×

- FY2023: 0.71×

- FY2024: 0.55×

- FY2025: 0.85×

- FY2026: 1.06×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 11.5% vs 7.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.18 to 0.14 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 6.8%

- Market cap gain: AUD -1.6B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 13M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -3.0%

- Per-share value change: AUD -0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD 0.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.14

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.37

- Average buyback yield: 3.5%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: AUD 1.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 1.6B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 11.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD 0.18

- FY2018: AUD 0.22

- FY2019: AUD 0.12

- FY2020: AUD 0.07

- FY2021: AUD 0.15

- FY2022: AUD 0.20

- FY2023: AUD 0.16

- FY2024: AUD 0.14

- FY2025: AUD 0.77

- FY2026: AUD -0.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -20.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.32×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.4%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: 1.9%

- FY2021: -5.6%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -2.3%

- FY2024: -3.4%

- FY2025: 12.4%

- FY2026: -20.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 64% since Apr 2022 · "Orora Shares Fall 19% To 12-Year Low After Profit Forecast Cut" (finance.yahoo.com, Apr 2026) · sales +6.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.734Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 5.2% a year for ten years

- 2026-04-09: Orora Shares Fall 19% To 12-Year Low After Profit Forecast Cut ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/orora-shares-fall-19-12-151804239.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +6.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 4.0B 

- FY2018: AUD 4.2B 

- FY2019: AUD 3.4B 

- FY2020: AUD 3.6B 

- FY2021: AUD 3.5B 

- FY2022: AUD 4.1B 

- FY2023: AUD 4.3B 

- FY2024: AUD 4.7B 

- FY2025: AUD 2.1B 

- FY2026: AUD 2.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 21.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 18.9% 

- FY2018: 19.0% 

- FY2019: 20.2% 

- FY2020: 18.3% 

- FY2021: 19.1% 

- FY2022: 18.9% 

- FY2023: 18.6% 

- FY2024: 19.5% 

- FY2025: 23.1% 

- FY2026: 21.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in packaging & containers; annual sales are AUD 2.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2026: revenue 2225900000; grossProfit 475400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORA.AU: Orora Limited designs, manufactures, and supplies packaging products and services in Australasia, Europe, and internationally. It also provides aluminum cans, such as aluminium cans including classic cans, sleek cans and can ends; glass bottles, including beer, wine, cider and alcoholic ready-to-drink styles, carbonated soft drinks, juices, olive oil, spirits, as well as custom designs and innovative glass bottle sleeving; and saverglass which offers glass for wines and spirits. Orora Limited was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Hawthorn, Australia.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.5% to 23.1% during 2024–26; it earns 12.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 23.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 21.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11515118707553205],[2018,0.12785888457707004],[2019,0.08051919013450247],[2020,0.1329482163024899],[2021,0.134945996268866],[2022,0.169237330113579],[2023,0.15280218178430902],[2024,0.07888953795654956],[2025,0.029714143233984722],[2026,0.07160223367697595]]; median 0.12150503582630104. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 19% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.19055963821368005],[2022,0.18888725921580132],[2023,0.1863770885279519]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back AUD 120.7 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2017: growth capex 40600000; upkeep 116500000; owner earnings 171100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23728813559322035.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2018: growth capex 66600000; upkeep 122300000; owner earnings 212200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.31385485391140433.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 190200000; owner earnings 109340000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 116200000; owner earnings 20680000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 57100000; owner earnings 148320000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 92200000; owner earnings 165600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2023: growth capex 57907888.16339508; upkeep 131792111.83660492; owner earnings 130487888.16339508. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.44377979426629727.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2024: growth capex 48300000; upkeep 212500000; owner earnings 101300000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4768015794669299.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 266600000; owner earnings 831100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,119600000],[2018,144200000],[2019,156700000],[2020,606600000],[2021,113000000],[2022,134800000],[2023,143400000],[2024,142900000],[2025,132800000],[2026,125300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 120700000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 5.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORA.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 5.11 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 5.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:43:30.263Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.06099830249090765. Price 1.35; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.17390879195588288 → FY2026 -0.5335892539491293. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 3.39 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 3.24 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 3.33 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 3.47 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 3.46 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 3.52 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 3.28 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 3.34 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 3.22 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 3.62 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 3.97 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 3.84 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 3.96 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 3.81 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 3.90 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 4.02 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 4.24 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 4.12 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 3.88 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.92 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.82 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.59 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 3.69 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 3.68 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 3.54 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 3.67 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 3.78 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 3.95 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 3.26 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 3.38 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 3.61 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 3.77 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 3.71 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 3.76 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 3.19 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 2.83 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 3.10 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 2.37 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 2.09 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 2.24 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 2.41 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 2.48 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 2.52 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 2.35 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 2.73 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 2.84 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 2.97 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 2.95 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 3.11 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 3.36 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 3.19 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 2.91 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 3.08 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 3.13 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 3.27 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 3.23 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 3.49 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 3.37 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 3.74 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 3.66 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 3.41 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 3.32 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 3.10 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 2.83 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 2.92 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 2.70 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 2.78 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 3.20 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 3.07 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 3.07 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 3.35 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 3.29 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 2.75 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 2.46 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 2.54 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 2.60 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 2.68 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 2.72 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 2.19 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 1.97 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 2.04 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 2.50 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 2.73 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 2.41 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 2.43 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 2.46 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 2.37 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 2.11 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 1.88 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 1.81 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 1.87 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 1.89 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 2.08 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 2.08 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 2.08 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 2.01 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 2.23 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 2.21 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 2.14 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 1.89 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 1.31 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 1.31 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 1.39 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 1.46 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 1.46 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 1.40 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 1.39 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2017: low AUD 1.74 per share, central AUD 1.98 per share, high AUD 2.30 per share

- FY2018: low AUD 2.04 per share, central AUD 2.32 per share, high AUD 2.69 per share

- FY2019: low AUD 1.62 per share, central AUD 1.84 per share, high AUD 2.13 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 1.77 per share, central AUD 2.01 per share, high AUD 2.33 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 1.84 per share, central AUD 2.10 per share, high AUD 2.43 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 1.96 per share, central AUD 2.23 per share, high AUD 2.59 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 1.50 per share, central AUD 1.98 per share, high AUD 2.31 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 1.34 per share, central AUD 1.58 per share, high AUD 1.81 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 0.90 per share, central AUD 1.00 per share, high AUD 1.13 per share

- FY2026: low AUD 0.99 per share, central AUD 1.07 per share, high AUD 1.18 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations