# Orbia Advance (ORBIA.MX)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ORBIA.MX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2025.

Listing currency: MXN. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: MXN 23.31 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low MXN 25.17 per share, central MXN 26.98 per share, high MXN 29.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value MXN 26.98 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 15.5% at the stated quote. About 15.5% a year at today's price (required return 13.3%). required return 13.3% a year (MX 10-year bond 9.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 9 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.29×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.12×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.12×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 5.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 26.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 6.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 11.6%

- FY2018: 15.2%

- FY2019: 12.1%

- FY2020: 11.1%

- FY2021: 20.3%

- FY2022: 15.0%

- FY2023: 12.6%

- FY2024: 7.0%

- FY2025: 5.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.52×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $977M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.37×

- FY2022: 1.06×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 1.73×

- FY2025: 0.64×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.1% vs 7.0%

- Per-share earnings: 0.10 to 0.03 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: -$3.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$105M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -16.5%

- Per-share value change: -$0.07

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.10

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.03

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 2.2%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.09

- FY2018: $0.17

- FY2019: $0.10

- FY2020: $0.10

- FY2021: $0.34

- FY2022: $0.30

- FY2023: $0.03

- FY2024: $0.08

- FY2025: -$0.24

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -8.5%

- FY2018: -9.3%

- FY2019: -8.7%

- FY2020: -8.8%

- FY2021: -5.5%

- FY2022: -6.2%

- FY2023: -11.5%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -11.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 56% since Oct 2021 · sales +1.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:56.387Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 1.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: $5.8B 

- FY2018: $7.2B 

- FY2019: $7.0B 

- FY2020: $6.4B 

- FY2021: $8.8B 

- FY2022: $9.6B 

- FY2023: $8.2B 

- FY2024: $7.5B 

- FY2025: $7.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 24.9% 

- FY2018: 26.9% 

- FY2019: 28.0% 

- FY2020: 28.8% 

- FY2021: 29.9% 

- FY2022: 26.6% 

- FY2023: 26.5% 

- FY2024: 23.3% 

- FY2025: 21.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in conglomerates; annual sales are USD 7.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2025: revenue 7619000000; grossProfit 1626000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORBIA.MX: Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, provides polymer solutions in the United States, Northwest Europe, Southwest Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Brazil, Mexico, Central and Eastern Europe, Colombia, Central America, Peru, Southeast Europe, Canada, Ecuador, Israel, Argentina, Chile, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Polymer Solutions, Building and Infrastructure, Precision Agriculture, Connectivity Solutions, and Fluor and Energy Materials. The company offers derivatives comprising ethylene, salt, chlorine, caustic soda, methyl and ethyl chloride, hydrochloric acid, and sodium hypochlorite; general-purpose and specialty polyvinyl chloride resins; and plastic compounds. It also provides plastic piping systems and solutions; high-density polyethylene conduit, accessories, and other connectivity infrastructure products; digital education and fiber-optic network design services; sprinklers, micro-sprinklers, drippers, drip lines, greenhouse solutions, and advanced digital technology for agriculture and greenhouse components; and strategic system components, such as filters, valves, and air valves. In addition, the company offers fluorite; hydrofluoric acid and aluminum trifluoride; refrigerant and medical propellant gases, such as R-134a gas; and fluorinated additives and co-solvents, fluor silane and electrolyte additives, electrolyte salts, and binders for lithium-ion batteries. It exports its products. The company was formerly known as Mexichem, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. in August 2019. Orbia Advance Corporation, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.3% to 26.5% during 2023–25; it earns 12.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 23.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); 9-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.11619041177952975],[2018,0.1521628333021959],[2019,0.12057336191014892],[2020,0.11052173773635171],[2021,0.20275840442333476],[2022,0.14971980676328503],[2023,0.1262959575635632],[2024,0.0702029621503017],[2025,0.05844833948339483]]; median 0.12057336191014892. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 253969000; owner earnings 338144000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 282652000; owner earnings 1010115000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 261000000; owner earnings 418808200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 204474000; owner earnings 519022000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 286404000; owner earnings 897008200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 470000000; owner earnings 599862162.1621622. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 589000000; owner earnings 33000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 405000000; owner earnings 250726457.39910313. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,105501000],[2018,196926000],[2019,68000000],[2020,229912000],[2021,199943000],[2022,299000000],[2023,240000000],[2024,160000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 55.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ORBIA.MX SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 55.54 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 1.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:28.993Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.03702030838785858. Price 23.31; FX 18.44337882700111; discount 0.13252; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (MXN per share)

- 2016-10: MXN 45.20 per share

- 2016-11: MXN 49.06 per share

- 2016-12: MXN 47.10 per share

- 2017-01: MXN 49.42 per share

- 2017-02: MXN 47.37 per share

- 2017-03: MXN 51.03 per share

- 2017-04: MXN 51.55 per share

- 2017-05: MXN 48.88 per share

- 2017-06: MXN 48.72 per share

- 2017-07: MXN 50.73 per share

- 2017-08: MXN 47.62 per share

- 2017-09: MXN 48.08 per share

- 2017-10: MXN 49.36 per share

- 2017-11: MXN 48.47 per share

- 2017-12: MXN 48.63 per share

- 2018-01: MXN 52.75 per share

- 2018-02: MXN 52.84 per share

- 2018-03: MXN 55.64 per share

- 2018-04: MXN 58.42 per share

- 2018-05: MXN 56.19 per share

- 2018-06: MXN 57.43 per share

- 2018-07: MXN 65.25 per share

- 2018-08: MXN 64.69 per share

- 2018-09: MXN 64.36 per share

- 2018-10: MXN 53.66 per share

- 2018-11: MXN 47.56 per share

- 2018-12: MXN 49.94 per share

- 2019-01: MXN 51.08 per share

- 2019-02: MXN 46.71 per share

- 2019-03: MXN 46.41 per share

- 2019-04: MXN 44.01 per share

- 2019-05: MXN 41.01 per share

- 2019-06: MXN 40.29 per share

- 2019-07: MXN 35.11 per share

- 2019-08: MXN 36.75 per share

- 2019-09: MXN 39.10 per share

- 2019-10: MXN 42.21 per share

- 2019-11: MXN 42.68 per share

- 2019-12: MXN 40.71 per share

- 2020-01: MXN 44.41 per share

- 2020-02: MXN 38.49 per share

- 2020-03: MXN 26.09 per share

- 2020-04: MXN 28.44 per share

- 2020-05: MXN 32.54 per share

- 2020-06: MXN 33.98 per share

- 2020-07: MXN 35.24 per share

- 2020-08: MXN 35.16 per share

- 2020-09: MXN 38.74 per share

- 2020-10: MXN 37.51 per share

- 2020-11: MXN 41.37 per share

- 2020-12: MXN 46.75 per share

- 2021-01: MXN 44.18 per share

- 2021-02: MXN 48.79 per share

- 2021-03: MXN 54.57 per share

- 2021-04: MXN 56.50 per share

- 2021-05: MXN 56.41 per share

- 2021-06: MXN 52.14 per share

- 2021-07: MXN 54.25 per share

- 2021-08: MXN 57.34 per share

- 2021-09: MXN 52.91 per share

- 2021-10: MXN 53.51 per share

- 2021-11: MXN 49.94 per share

- 2021-12: MXN 52.27 per share

- 2022-01: MXN 48.17 per share

- 2022-02: MXN 52.32 per share

- 2022-03: MXN 52.51 per share

- 2022-04: MXN 49.10 per share

- 2022-05: MXN 52.85 per share

- 2022-06: MXN 47.06 per share

- 2022-07: MXN 44.96 per share

- 2022-08: MXN 38.02 per share

- 2022-09: MXN 33.90 per share

- 2022-10: MXN 33.33 per share

- 2022-11: MXN 37.80 per share

- 2022-12: MXN 34.55 per share

- 2023-01: MXN 37.52 per share

- 2023-02: MXN 38.01 per share

- 2023-03: MXN 39.19 per share

- 2023-04: MXN 41.40 per share

- 2023-05: MXN 37.39 per share

- 2023-06: MXN 36.65 per share

- 2023-07: MXN 38.03 per share

- 2023-08: MXN 37.95 per share

- 2023-09: MXN 36.18 per share

- 2023-10: MXN 29.26 per share

- 2023-11: MXN 37.02 per share

- 2023-12: MXN 37.59 per share

- 2024-01: MXN 34.26 per share

- 2024-02: MXN 31.49 per share

- 2024-03: MXN 34.73 per share

- 2024-04: MXN 28.04 per share

- 2024-05: MXN 27.81 per share

- 2024-06: MXN 25.52 per share

- 2024-07: MXN 24.05 per share

- 2024-08: MXN 21.19 per share

- 2024-09: MXN 19.98 per share

- 2024-10: MXN 18.33 per share

- 2024-11: MXN 18.24 per share

- 2024-12: MXN 14.97 per share

- 2025-01: MXN 13.14 per share

- 2025-02: MXN 14.20 per share

- 2025-03: MXN 15.51 per share

- 2025-04: MXN 13.24 per share

- 2025-05: MXN 13.13 per share

- 2025-06: MXN 13.12 per share

- 2025-07: MXN 12.83 per share

- 2025-08: MXN 14.68 per share

- 2025-09: MXN 17.79 per share

- 2025-10: MXN 16.82 per share

- 2025-11: MXN 16.96 per share

- 2025-12: MXN 15.58 per share

- 2026-01: MXN 18.54 per share

- 2026-02: MXN 20.32 per share

- 2026-03: MXN 21.62 per share

- 2026-04: MXN 20.83 per share

- 2026-05: MXN 23.37 per share

- 2026-06: MXN 22.56 per share

- 2026-07: MXN 24.49 per share

- 2026-08: MXN 21.26 per share

- 2026-09: MXN 19.79 per share

- 2026-10: MXN 23.31 per share

## Annual estimated value (MXN per share)

- FY2021: low MXN 58.52 per share, central MXN 63.45 per share, high MXN 69.44 per share

- FY2022: low MXN 70.56 per share, central MXN 76.12 per share, high MXN 82.86 per share

- FY2023: low MXN 44.03 per share, central MXN 47.66 per share, high MXN 52.07 per share

- FY2024: low MXN 40.95 per share, central MXN 44.27 per share, high MXN 48.31 per share

- FY2025: low MXN 26.21 per share, central MXN 28.01 per share, high MXN 30.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations