# Pan American Silver (PAAS.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PAAS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:31:01.398Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $43.77 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $14.80 per share, central $16.30 per share, high $18.30 per share. Buy at or below the central value $16.30 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:31:01.398Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.1% at the stated quote. About 5.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.23×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.20×

- FY2022: -0.18×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.32×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.39×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 19.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 19.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.8%

- FY2017: 9.8%

- FY2018: 2.1%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 6.2%

- FY2021: 8.9%

- FY2022: -9.1%

- FY2023: 0.6%

- FY2024: 7.5%

- FY2025: 14.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.88×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: $760M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -2.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -14.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 22.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.61×

- FY2022: 0.88×

- FY2023: -0.01×

- FY2024: 3.23×

- FY2025: 1.21×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.8% vs 7.5%

- Per-share earnings: 0.66 to 0.31 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 9.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 12.7%

- Market cap gain: $17B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $419M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 9.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 12.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -9.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.66

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.31

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.50

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.9M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $1.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.66

- FY2017: $0.79

- FY2018: $0.07

- FY2019: $0.55

- FY2020: $0.85

- FY2021: $0.46

- FY2022: -$1.62

- FY2023: -$0.32

- FY2024: $0.31

- FY2025: $2.61

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.41×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: -5.2%

- FY2018: -7.5%

- FY2019: -4.9%

- FY2020: -8.3%

- FY2021: -8.4%

- FY2022: -11.4%

- FY2023: -7.7%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -4.2%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 36% since Feb 2026 · sales +16.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:21.509Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.7% a year for ten years

- 2026-02-19: Pan American Silver Earnings Beat Sparks Guidance Hike And Valuation Debate ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pan-american-silver-earnings-beat-043659120.html))

- 2026-08-17: PAAS Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates, Revenues Rise Y/Y on Metal Prices ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/paas-q2-earnings-miss-estimates-161000398.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +16.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2017: $817M 

- FY2018: $784M 

- FY2019: $1.4B 

- FY2020: $1.3B 

- FY2021: $1.6B 

- FY2022: $1.5B 

- FY2023: $2.3B 

- FY2024: $2.8B 

- FY2025: $3.7B 

- FY2026: $4.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 25.7% 

- FY2017: 20.7% 

- FY2018: 12.9% 

- FY2019: 15.2% 

- FY2020: 19.3% 

- FY2021: 22.5% 

- FY2022: 3.2% 

- FY2023: 12.8% 

- FY2024: 19.5% 

- FY2025: 37.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 3.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 3682352526; grossProfit 1386860042; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.8% to 37.7% during 2023–25; it earns 6.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 19.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09837037669041424],[2017,0.09824458553070162],[2018,0.021355719966720976],[2019,0.03257817490674217],[2020,0.0624499213045526],[2021,0.08929584621700563],[2022,-0.09099540010319578],[2023,0.005877103916897723],[2024,0.07467366598116679],[2025,0.14247749671611945]]; median 0.06856179364285969. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 46.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 86706000; upkeep 115955000; owner earnings 100085000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.866323624918819.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 39563000; upkeep 122888000; owner earnings 120991000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3269912638130109.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 151848000; owner earnings 5735000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 207352000; owner earnings 156839000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 178556000; owner earnings 271770000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 243478000; owner earnings 156908000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 379000000; owner earnings 1500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 323300000; owner earnings 359900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 319496734; owner earnings 1207779071. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,7606000],[2017,15314000],[2018,21284000],[2019,29332000],[2020,46223000],[2021,71500000],[2022,94700000],[2023,130400000],[2024,145400000],[2025,178063468]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 46805254 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PAAS.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.065 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.21417631097948686. Price 43.77; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -1.4668292522163267 → FY2025 3.165230270692416. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $16.03 per share

- 2016-11: $16.85 per share

- 2016-12: $15.07 per share

- 2017-01: $19.53 per share

- 2017-02: $17.95 per share

- 2017-03: $17.52 per share

- 2017-04: $16.77 per share

- 2017-05: $17.44 per share

- 2017-06: $16.82 per share

- 2017-07: $16.85 per share

- 2017-08: $18.66 per share

- 2017-09: $17.05 per share

- 2017-10: $16.33 per share

- 2017-11: $15.14 per share

- 2017-12: $15.56 per share

- 2018-01: $16.42 per share

- 2018-02: $15.14 per share

- 2018-03: $16.15 per share

- 2018-04: $16.12 per share

- 2018-05: $17.69 per share

- 2018-06: $17.90 per share

- 2018-07: $16.47 per share

- 2018-08: $15.59 per share

- 2018-09: $14.76 per share

- 2018-10: $14.68 per share

- 2018-11: $12.90 per share

- 2018-12: $14.60 per share

- 2019-01: $14.91 per share

- 2019-02: $13.36 per share

- 2019-03: $13.25 per share

- 2019-04: $12.71 per share

- 2019-05: $10.87 per share

- 2019-06: $12.91 per share

- 2019-07: $15.19 per share

- 2019-08: $18.45 per share

- 2019-09: $15.68 per share

- 2019-10: $17.05 per share

- 2019-11: $19.25 per share

- 2019-12: $23.69 per share

- 2020-01: $22.98 per share

- 2020-02: $19.80 per share

- 2020-03: $14.33 per share

- 2020-04: $21.24 per share

- 2020-05: $29.30 per share

- 2020-06: $30.39 per share

- 2020-07: $37.36 per share

- 2020-08: $36.16 per share

- 2020-09: $32.15 per share

- 2020-10: $31.80 per share

- 2020-11: $29.53 per share

- 2020-12: $34.51 per share

- 2021-01: $32.46 per share

- 2021-02: $33.02 per share

- 2021-03: $30.03 per share

- 2021-04: $31.82 per share

- 2021-05: $33.64 per share

- 2021-06: $28.57 per share

- 2021-07: $28.07 per share

- 2021-08: $25.94 per share

- 2021-09: $23.27 per share

- 2021-10: $25.61 per share

- 2021-11: $25.54 per share

- 2021-12: $24.97 per share

- 2022-01: $21.67 per share

- 2022-02: $23.63 per share

- 2022-03: $27.30 per share

- 2022-04: $24.77 per share

- 2022-05: $21.97 per share

- 2022-06: $19.67 per share

- 2022-07: $20.33 per share

- 2022-08: $14.88 per share

- 2022-09: $15.88 per share

- 2022-10: $15.98 per share

- 2022-11: $16.39 per share

- 2022-12: $16.34 per share

- 2023-01: $18.23 per share

- 2023-02: $14.86 per share

- 2023-03: $18.20 per share

- 2023-04: $17.81 per share

- 2023-05: $15.23 per share

- 2023-06: $14.58 per share

- 2023-07: $16.88 per share

- 2023-08: $16.55 per share

- 2023-09: $14.48 per share

- 2023-10: $14.61 per share

- 2023-11: $15.66 per share

- 2023-12: $16.33 per share

- 2024-01: $13.52 per share

- 2024-02: $12.41 per share

- 2024-03: $15.08 per share

- 2024-04: $18.44 per share

- 2024-05: $22.00 per share

- 2024-06: $19.88 per share

- 2024-07: $22.98 per share

- 2024-08: $20.21 per share

- 2024-09: $20.87 per share

- 2024-10: $23.41 per share

- 2024-11: $21.97 per share

- 2024-12: $20.22 per share

- 2025-01: $23.21 per share

- 2025-02: $23.83 per share

- 2025-03: $25.83 per share

- 2025-04: $25.18 per share

- 2025-05: $24.39 per share

- 2025-06: $28.40 per share

- 2025-07: $27.02 per share

- 2025-08: $33.92 per share

- 2025-09: $38.73 per share

- 2025-10: $35.21 per share

- 2025-11: $45.67 per share

- 2025-12: $51.81 per share

- 2026-01: $54.60 per share

- 2026-02: $68.70 per share

- 2026-03: $54.63 per share

- 2026-04: $52.29 per share

- 2026-05: $56.99 per share

- 2026-06: $44.79 per share

- 2026-07: $43.11 per share

- 2026-08: $51.92 per share

- 2026-09: $45.51 per share

- 2026-10: $46.27 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $1.71 per share, central $1.80 per share, high $1.89 per share

- FY2019: low $9.55 per share, central $10.73 per share, high $12.29 per share

- FY2020: low $10.30 per share, central $11.70 per share, high $13.40 per share

- FY2021: low $11.29 per share, central $12.64 per share, high $14.45 per share

- FY2022: low $8.34 per share, central $9.85 per share, high $11.38 per share

- FY2023: low $9.22 per share, central $11.06 per share, high $12.70 per share

- FY2024: low $10.43 per share, central $11.56 per share, high $13.05 per share

- FY2025: low $13.39 per share, central $14.79 per share, high $16.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:36:45.790Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 40-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771992/000077199226000019/paas-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 2,417,389 PAAS shares; USD 108,263,000 reported position value; 0.18% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Lee Ainslie](https://gigainvestors.com/mc): 18,255 PAAS shares; USD 818,000 reported position value; 0.01% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# PAAS — Pan American Silver Corp.

Held by 2 investors · USD 109,081,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 44.81 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PAAS

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 108,263,000 | 0.2% | hold |
| Lee Ainslie (https://gigainvestors.com/mc) | USD 818,000 | <0.1% | reduce -44.54% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2025 Q1: USD 700,121 · 1 holder · USD 25.85
- 2025 Q2: USD 768,915 · 1 holder · USD 28.39
- 2025 Q3: USD 177,992,247 · 1 holder · USD 38.74
- 2025 Q4: USD 180,902,524 · 1 holder · USD 51.85
- 2026 Q1: USD 134,080,635 · 2 holders · USD 54.72
- 2026 Q2: USD 109,081,000 · 2 holders · USD 44.81