# Pan African Resources (PAF.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PAF.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 118.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 41.43 per share, central GBX 46.06 per share, high GBX 52.21 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 46.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.4% at the stated quote. About 5.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.37×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.31×

- FY2021: 0.30×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.32×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.36×

- FY2026: 0.47×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 22.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -8.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 33.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 41.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 23.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.9%

- FY2018: 10.6%

- FY2019: 11.0%

- FY2020: 32.6%

- FY2021: 27.3%

- FY2022: 27.2%

- FY2023: 23.9%

- FY2024: 18.2%

- FY2025: 20.3%

- FY2026: 43.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.68×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $486M

- Net income, five-year total: $714M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 47.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -3.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.38×

- FY2023: -0.51×

- FY2024: -0.09×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 10.6% vs 20.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.01 to 0.07 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- Market cap gain: $2.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $896M

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 27.6%

- Per-share value change: $0.06

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.01

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.07

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 3 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $3.8M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $773M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 10.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 20.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $0.01

- FY2018: -$0.06

- FY2019: $0.02

- FY2020: $0.02

- FY2021: $0.04

- FY2022: $0.04

- FY2023: $0.03

- FY2024: $0.04

- FY2025: $0.07

- FY2026: $0.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -12.4%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.56×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 1.7%

- FY2018: -34.5%

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -3.5%

- FY2021: -4.5%

- FY2022: -13.1%

- FY2023: -12.4%

- FY2024: -1.7%

- FY2025: -1.3%

- FY2026: -12.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 34% since Feb 2026 · sales +114.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:10.444Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 14.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +114.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: $218M 

- FY2018: $139M 

- FY2019: $218M 

- FY2020: $274M 

- FY2021: $369M 

- FY2022: $376M 

- FY2023: $322M 

- FY2024: $374M 

- FY2025: $540M 

- FY2026: $1.2B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 55.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: 13.1% 

- FY2018: 22.0% 

- FY2019: 22.1% 

- FY2020: 34.2% 

- FY2021: 33.8% 

- FY2022: 32.3% 

- FY2023: 31.8% 

- FY2024: 35.1% 

- FY2025: 41.8% 

- FY2026: 55.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are USD 1.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2026: revenue 1156451000; grossProfit 642154000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 35.1% to 55.5% during 2024–26; it earns 22.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2024-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 35.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 41.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 55.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.058577389886578846],[2018,0.10645610305416338],[2019,0.11001656268084381],[2020,0.3255914987783193],[2021,0.2732325211254989],[2022,0.2715909175429142],[2023,0.23922869265598085],[2024,0.1822294945802184],[2025,0.20317902853132966],[2026,0.43917350717757897]]; median 0.22120386059365527. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 32% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.3376704696234658],[2022,0.3225593895385139],[2023,0.3184548795731423]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 43.3% of cash earnings; earns 47.5% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2017-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 35518177; owner earnings 3562298.6499999985. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2019-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2019: growth capex 38790800; upkeep 16324900; owner earnings 38042200. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.0196781469000216.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2020-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2020: growth capex 12776600; upkeep 21780700; owner earnings 44293300. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.28845446150998005.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2021-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2021: growth capex 12007200; upkeep 32388800; owner earnings 73596700. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16314861943538228.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2022-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2022: growth capex 9921219.145936266; upkeep 72761780.85406373; owner earnings 28199619.145936266. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3518210332768261.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2025-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2025: growth capex 124226000; upkeep 34394000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 140865600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.881876057745823.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2026: growth capex 154163000; upkeep 61980000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 355653400. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.4334641535832358.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); Incremental return on capital 0.4753022842694326, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); Dividend observations: [[2017,13290429],[2018,11030000],[2019,3399100],[2020,3399100],[2021,20607000],[2022,24984000],[2023,23168000],[2025,0],[2026,58686097]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/PAN.JSE.json#2026-06-30 (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 1314000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 13.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PAF.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 13.530000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 14.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:39:06.962Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.1936091571417714. Price 118; FX 75.34943299551671; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 19.75 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 19.50 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 15.50 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 15.50 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 16.50 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 15.50 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 15.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 16.25 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 13.75 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 13.75 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 14.50 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 13.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 13.75 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 15.25 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 13.25 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 12.76 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 7.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 7.17 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 7.09 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 7.40 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 7.10 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 7.27 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 7.34 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 8.03 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 8.20 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 8.50 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 8.62 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 10.81 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 10.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 9.15 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 8.95 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 10.46 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 10.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 11.29 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 14.40 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 11.28 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 12.10 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 10.52 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 12.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 13.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 12.30 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 9.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 13.60 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 14.95 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 17.55 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 24.70 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 24.50 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 22.40 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 19.55 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 19.65 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 23.60 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 22.60 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 17.10 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 15.90 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 18.28 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 23.20 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 17.24 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 17.32 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 17.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 15.64 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 17.32 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 18.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 16.70 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 18.20 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 21.70 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 22.40 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 21.85 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 20.20 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 20.75 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 20.30 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 18.40 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 17.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 16.92 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 17.76 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 16.54 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 16.90 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 13.56 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 16.58 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 17.70 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 13.66 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 12.52 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 14.44 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 14.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 14.38 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 16.20 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 16.58 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 16.86 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 17.92 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 19.28 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 22.50 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 24.20 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 25.55 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 26.05 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 29.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 31.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 31.70 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 36.20 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 34.55 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 34.35 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 40.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 34.05 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 42.45 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 44.45 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 46.35 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 45.75 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 53.20 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 63.20 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 87.60 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 83.60 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 100.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 121.00 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 132.20 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 179.20 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 139.40 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 139.60 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 137.70 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 95.50 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 92.15 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 136.30 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 119.60 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 118.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2021: low GBX 26.55 per share, central GBX 30.06 per share, high GBX 34.73 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 26.77 per share, central GBX 30.35 per share, high GBX 35.13 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 23.45 per share, central GBX 26.53 per share, high GBX 30.63 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 12.78 per share, central GBX 14.44 per share, high GBX 16.65 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 18.31 per share, central GBX 20.64 per share, high GBX 23.73 per share

- FY2026: low GBX 43.49 per share, central GBX 48.34 per share, high GBX 54.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:44:46.303Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations