# Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN (PKN.WAR)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PKN.WAR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:58.525Z. Financial observations: FY2004–FY2025.

Listing currency: PLN. Reporting currency: PLN.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: PLN 154.44 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low PLN 153.60 per share, central PLN 175.16 per share, high PLN 198.65 per share. Buy at or below the central value PLN 175.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:58.525Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 11.6% at the stated quote. About 11.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.4%). required return 10.4% a year (PL 10-year bond 6.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- FY2024 operating-margin dip fully recovered the next year and stayed recovered; holding that year at the preceding margin meets the existing variation limit. Raw variation still determines the price discount.

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.42×

- One fully recovered margin dip: Yes

- Variation with recovered dip held at prior margin: 0.34

- Recovered dip fiscal year: FY2024

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.07×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.03×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 12.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -2.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 21.0%

- FY2017: 21.7%

- FY2018: 13.8%

- FY2019: 9.4%

- FY2020: 6.4%

- FY2021: 16.4%

- FY2022: 23.4%

- FY2023: 11.8%

- FY2024: 3.1%

- FY2025: 9.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.43×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: PLN 33B

- Net income, five-year total: PLN 75B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 14.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -7.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.0%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.90×

- FY2022: 0.95×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: -12.07×

- FY2025: -6.22×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 21.0% vs 9.9%

- Per-share earnings: 12.30 to 2.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 10.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 22.1%

- Market cap gain: PLN 75B

- Cumulative retained earnings: PLN 77B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 10.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 22.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -19.4%

- Per-share value change: PLN -10.12

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: PLN 12.30

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: PLN 2.18

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 4.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: PLN 15B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: PLN 100B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 21.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: PLN 12.30

- FY2017: PLN 15.56

- FY2018: PLN 12.99

- FY2019: PLN 10.05

- FY2020: PLN 6.44

- FY2021: PLN 26.00

- FY2022: PLN 34.18

- FY2023: PLN 17.81

- FY2024: PLN 1.27

- FY2025: PLN 2.18

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -16.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.00×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 18.41×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.3%

- FY2017: -2.3%

- FY2018: 0.9%

- FY2019: -7.0%

- FY2020: -5.4%

- FY2021: -2.0%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: -8.0%

- FY2024: -13.4%

- FY2025: -16.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years · sales -9.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.545Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/259400VVMM70CQREJT74/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/orlen-2023-12-31-pl/reports/orlen-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml; observed 2024-05-02.

- FY2016: PLN 80B 

- FY2017: PLN 95B 

- FY2018: PLN 110B 

- FY2019: PLN 111B 

- FY2020: PLN 86B 

- FY2021: PLN 131B 

- FY2022: PLN 278B 

- FY2023: PLN 373B 

- FY2024: PLN 295B 

- FY2025: PLN 267B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.8%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/259400VVMM70CQREJT74/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/orlen-2023-12-31-pl/reports/orlen-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml; observed 2024-05-02.

- FY2016: 14.2% 

- FY2017: 14.3% 

- FY2018: 11.3% 

- FY2019: 12.5% 

- FY2020: 11.1% 

- FY2021: 15.6% 

- FY2022: 18.9% 

- FY2023: 16.3% 

- FY2024: 14.2% 

- FY2025: 17.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are PLN 267.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2025: revenue 267329000000; grossProfit 47622000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PKN.WAR: Orlen S.A. operates in refining, petrochemical, energy, retail, gas, and upstream business. It engages in the processing and wholesale of refinery products, such as crude oil; production and sale of fuel, oil, chemicals, and petrochemicals, as well as provision of supporting services; production, distribution, and sale of electricity and heat from conventional and renewable energy sources comprising solar photovoltaics, as well as natural gas; trading of electricity; exploration and extraction of mineral resources; exploration, production, and import of natural gas; and trading and storage of gas and liquid gas. The company is also involved in the exploration, recognition, and extraction of hydrocarbons; fuel station activities; and provision of transportation, maintenance and overhaul, laboratory, security, design, administrative, courier, insurance, and financial services, as well as press distribution, and media activities, such as newspapers and websites. It offers petrol, diesel, LPG, and biofuels; aviation and marine fuels; heating oils; aromatics, including phenol, benzene, paraxylene, purified terephthalic acid, benzene-toulene fraction, and naphthalene concentrate; olefins; polyolefins comprising polyethylene; plastics, including polyvinyl chloride polanvil, compounds creovil, and PVC neralit; glycols; nitrogen fertilizers; and other products, such as acetone, ethylene oxide, masterbatch, advanced technical carbon black Chezacarb, caprolactam, soda lye, and sodium hypochlorite. In addition, the company provides base, car and motorbike, truck, marine, industrial, and agricultural oils, as well as paraffin and solvents; table, pickling, iodized table, feed, scrap, and industrial salt, as well as industrial salt brine and dishwasher salt granules; and bitumen. The company was formerly known as Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna and changed its name to Orlen S.A. in July 2023. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Plock, Poland.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.2% to 17.8% during 2023–25; it earns 12.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/259400VVMM70CQREJT74/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/orlen-2023-12-31-pl/reports/orlen-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml (filed 2024-05-02); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 16.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.20975601595807092],[2017,0.21722350153882616],[2018,0.13813207738033195],[2019,0.0941262280290889],[2020,0.06443494520091007],[2021,0.16388823319715198],[2022,0.23444020232915533],[2023,0.11810003762329573],[2024,0.031053606103052127],[2025,0.09909330478980445]]; median 0.12811605750181385. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 5033000000; owner earnings 2338000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2017: growth capex 1618000000; upkeep 2421000000; owner earnings 6655000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24312546957175057.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2018: growth capex 1781000000; upkeep 2673000000; owner earnings 5556000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3205543556515479.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2019: growth capex 462173714.6081052; upkeep 3987826285.391895; owner earnings 3009573714.608105. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15356783333293023.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2021: growth capex 5884000000; upkeep 5341000000; owner earnings 10011000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5877534711817002.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); FY2022: growth capex 12492000000; upkeep 7724000000; owner earnings 37624200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.33202034860541885.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/259400VVMM70CQREJT74/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/orlen-2023-12-31-pl/reports/orlen-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml (filed 2024-05-02); FY2023: growth capex 22208000000; upkeep 14193000000; owner earnings 18534200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1982173495484023.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); Dividend observations: [[2016,855000000],[2017,1283000000],[2018,1283000000],[2019,1502000000],[2020,428000000],[2021,1497000000],[2022,1497000000],[2023,6385000000],[2024,4819000000],[2025,6967000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 49.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PKN.WAR SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 49.9 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2024-05-02); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.015981670377114454. Price 154.44; FX 1; discount 0.10372; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 3.8673958177845926 → FY2025 -13.560711904642954. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (PLN per share)

- 2016-10: PLN 77.80 per share

- 2016-11: PLN 76.45 per share

- 2016-12: PLN 85.30 per share

- 2017-01: PLN 81.18 per share

- 2017-02: PLN 94.20 per share

- 2017-03: PLN 100.00 per share

- 2017-04: PLN 116.00 per share

- 2017-05: PLN 106.15 per share

- 2017-06: PLN 111.90 per share

- 2017-07: PLN 106.35 per share

- 2017-08: PLN 117.90 per share

- 2017-09: PLN 121.70 per share

- 2017-10: PLN 128.70 per share

- 2017-11: PLN 110.80 per share

- 2017-12: PLN 106.00 per share

- 2018-01: PLN 108.50 per share

- 2018-02: PLN 96.52 per share

- 2018-03: PLN 84.12 per share

- 2018-04: PLN 89.70 per share

- 2018-05: PLN 81.50 per share

- 2018-06: PLN 84.06 per share

- 2018-07: PLN 92.64 per share

- 2018-08: PLN 98.24 per share

- 2018-09: PLN 101.00 per share

- 2018-10: PLN 92.24 per share

- 2018-11: PLN 110.10 per share

- 2018-12: PLN 108.15 per share

- 2019-01: PLN 104.70 per share

- 2019-02: PLN 101.90 per share

- 2019-03: PLN 97.64 per share

- 2019-04: PLN 97.92 per share

- 2019-05: PLN 96.78 per share

- 2019-06: PLN 89.98 per share

- 2019-07: PLN 97.36 per share

- 2019-08: PLN 90.64 per share

- 2019-09: PLN 98.70 per share

- 2019-10: PLN 104.40 per share

- 2019-11: PLN 92.90 per share

- 2019-12: PLN 85.82 per share

- 2020-01: PLN 75.66 per share

- 2020-02: PLN 58.64 per share

- 2020-03: PLN 55.70 per share

- 2020-04: PLN 62.36 per share

- 2020-05: PLN 66.76 per share

- 2020-06: PLN 62.62 per share

- 2020-07: PLN 53.28 per share

- 2020-08: PLN 50.64 per share

- 2020-09: PLN 45.85 per share

- 2020-10: PLN 38.10 per share

- 2020-11: PLN 55.34 per share

- 2020-12: PLN 57.72 per share

- 2021-01: PLN 56.02 per share

- 2021-02: PLN 58.84 per share

- 2021-03: PLN 63.46 per share

- 2021-04: PLN 66.72 per share

- 2021-05: PLN 81.80 per share

- 2021-06: PLN 76.78 per share

- 2021-07: PLN 72.94 per share

- 2021-08: PLN 74.30 per share

- 2021-09: PLN 82.02 per share

- 2021-10: PLN 86.06 per share

- 2021-11: PLN 71.88 per share

- 2021-12: PLN 74.34 per share

- 2022-01: PLN 71.00 per share

- 2022-02: PLN 71.06 per share

- 2022-03: PLN 76.02 per share

- 2022-04: PLN 75.32 per share

- 2022-05: PLN 73.90 per share

- 2022-06: PLN 68.52 per share

- 2022-07: PLN 75.52 per share

- 2022-08: PLN 60.98 per share

- 2022-09: PLN 53.54 per share

- 2022-10: PLN 54.92 per share

- 2022-11: PLN 65.30 per share

- 2022-12: PLN 64.24 per share

- 2023-01: PLN 64.92 per share

- 2023-02: PLN 66.66 per share

- 2023-03: PLN 58.24 per share

- 2023-04: PLN 63.42 per share

- 2023-05: PLN 60.19 per share

- 2023-06: PLN 64.41 per share

- 2023-07: PLN 71.49 per share

- 2023-08: PLN 63.05 per share

- 2023-09: PLN 58.70 per share

- 2023-10: PLN 66.50 per share

- 2023-11: PLN 59.04 per share

- 2023-12: PLN 65.50 per share

- 2024-01: PLN 62.66 per share

- 2024-02: PLN 61.98 per share

- 2024-03: PLN 65.08 per share

- 2024-04: PLN 66.44 per share

- 2024-05: PLN 63.57 per share

- 2024-06: PLN 67.69 per share

- 2024-07: PLN 64.67 per share

- 2024-08: PLN 64.34 per share

- 2024-09: PLN 55.87 per share

- 2024-10: PLN 52.09 per share

- 2024-11: PLN 51.02 per share

- 2024-12: PLN 47.20 per share

- 2025-01: PLN 53.79 per share

- 2025-02: PLN 62.70 per share

- 2025-03: PLN 68.06 per share

- 2025-04: PLN 68.23 per share

- 2025-05: PLN 73.54 per share

- 2025-06: PLN 82.10 per share

- 2025-07: PLN 83.66 per share

- 2025-08: PLN 77.78 per share

- 2025-09: PLN 86.52 per share

- 2025-10: PLN 100.06 per share

- 2025-11: PLN 94.02 per share

- 2025-12: PLN 96.11 per share

- 2026-01: PLN 107.96 per share

- 2026-02: PLN 114.66 per share

- 2026-03: PLN 134.34 per share

- 2026-04: PLN 132.92 per share

- 2026-05: PLN 141.76 per share

- 2026-06: PLN 126.60 per share

- 2026-07: PLN 148.04 per share

- 2026-08: PLN 154.22 per share

- 2026-09: PLN 146.06 per share

- 2026-10: PLN 154.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (PLN per share)

- FY2016: low PLN 44.56 per share, central PLN 49.32 per share, high PLN 55.56 per share

- FY2017: low PLN 53.80 per share, central PLN 59.51 per share, high PLN 67.00 per share

- FY2018: low PLN 90.48 per share, central PLN 110.60 per share, high PLN 127.23 per share

- FY2019: low PLN 97.68 per share, central PLN 124.60 per share, high PLN 143.45 per share

- FY2020: low PLN 61.95 per share, central PLN 70.05 per share, high PLN 80.68 per share

- FY2021: low PLN 171.40 per share, central PLN 204.66 per share, high PLN 236.40 per share

- FY2022: low PLN 138.66 per share, central PLN 155.23 per share, high PLN 176.96 per share

- FY2023: low PLN 180.26 per share, central PLN 213.38 per share, high PLN 245.63 per share

- FY2024: low PLN 137.24 per share, central PLN 155.28 per share, high PLN 178.20 per share

- FY2025: low PLN 138.00 per share, central PLN 153.66 per share, high PLN 174.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/259400VVMM70CQREJT74/2023-12-31/ESEF/PL/0/orlen-2023-12-31-pl/reports/orlen-2023-12-31-pl.xhtml); period 2023-12-31, filed 2024-05-02.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations