# Persimmon (PSN.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PSN.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:20.337Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 1,263.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low GBX 1,105.18 per share, central GBX 1,256.05 per share, high GBX 1,456.90 per share. Buy at or below the central value GBX 1,256.05 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:20.337Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.0% at the stated quote. About 10.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; GB 10-year bond 5.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.31×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.24×

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.29×

- FY2019: 0.28×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.27×

- FY2022: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 11.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 27.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 11.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 16.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 30.9%

- FY2017: 32.7%

- FY2018: 33.8%

- FY2019: 30.1%

- FY2020: 25.3%

- FY2021: 29.0%

- FY2022: 18.7%

- FY2023: 7.7%

- FY2024: 8.1%

- FY2025: 8.7%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.99×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP 2.1B

- Net income, five-year total: GBP 2.2B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -18.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 4.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 37.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 114.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.93×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.7% vs 8.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.97 to 0.83 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: GBP -1.2B

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP 858M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -10.3%

- Per-share value change: GBP -1.14

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP 0.83

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.37

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 137M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP 5.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: GBP 1.97

- FY2017: GBP 2.40

- FY2018: GBP 2.81

- FY2019: GBP 2.66

- FY2020: GBP 1.99

- FY2021: GBP 2.46

- FY2022: GBP 1.73

- FY2023: GBP 0.80

- FY2024: GBP 0.83

- FY2025: GBP 0.88

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 4.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 56.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.10×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.8%

- FY2017: -0.8%

- FY2018: 5.0%

- FY2019: 5.1%

- FY2020: -2.7%

- FY2021: 0.1%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: 8.0%

- FY2024: 3.8%

- FY2025: 4.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 56% since Dec 2021 · "Persimmon sells more homes but warns mortgage costs still a ‘barrier’ to buyers" (uk.finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2025) · sales +17.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.984Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1% a year for ten years

- 2025-08-13: Persimmon sells more homes but warns mortgage costs still a ‘barrier’ to buyers ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-sells-more-homes-warns-071052277.html))

- 2026-01-13: Persimmon sees home sales beat forecasts but cautions over market outlook ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-sees-home-sales-beat-080753957.html))

- 2026-08-06: Persimmon improves completion guidance despite ‘challenging’ housing market ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/persimmon-improves-completion-guidance-despite-070556706.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +17.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: GBP 3.1B 

- FY2017: GBP 3.6B 

- FY2018: GBP 3.7B 

- FY2019: GBP 3.6B 

- FY2020: GBP 3.3B 

- FY2021: GBP 3.6B 

- FY2022: GBP 3.8B 

- FY2023: GBP 2.8B 

- FY2024: GBP 3.2B 

- FY2025: GBP 3.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 16.4%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml; observed 2026-03-24.

- FY2016: 27.8% 

- FY2017: 29.8% 

- FY2018: 31.6% 

- FY2019: 31.0% 

- FY2020: 26.9% 

- FY2021: 30.0% 

- FY2022: 22.7% 

- FY2023: 28.7% 

- FY2024: 18.1% 

- FY2025: 16.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in residential construction; annual sales are GBP 3.8 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: revenue 3751300000; grossProfit 616500000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSN.LSE: Persimmon Plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a house builder in the United Kingdom. The company offers family housing under the Persimmon Homes brand name; housing under the Charles Church brand name; and social housing under the Westbury Partnerships brand name. It also provides broadband services under the FibreNest brand; and timber frame, insulated wall panels, and roof cassettes under the Space4 brand. In addition, the company offers concrete bricks under the Brickworks brand; and concrete roof tile under the Tileworks brand. Persimmon Plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in York, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.4% to 28.7% during 2023–25; it earns 27.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.1%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 16.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.30854717627521294],[2017,0.3268713025197271],[2018,0.33830829782445243],[2019,0.3005330797382657],[2020,0.25275715864771786],[2021,0.2897267238157413],[2022,0.18709977877445066],[2023,0.07664810990440547],[2024,0.08149633631580201],[2025,0.08662044426550584]]; median 0.2712419412317296. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 6.8% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2016: growth capex 3394300.9989160243; upkeep 11305699.001083976; owner earnings 621994300.998916. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00545712556122269.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2017: growth capex 6399705.229141187; upkeep 11600294.770858813; owner earnings 783699705.2291412. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.00816601714462814.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2018: growth capex 1948361.3178604357; upkeep 13551638.682139564; owner earnings 882848361.3178605. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0022069037030912585.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 27500000; owner earnings 834600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 18900000; owner earnings 633600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2021: growth capex 6048150.7750036605; upkeep 14851849.22499634; owner earnings 786848150.7750037. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0076865539673017635.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2022: growth capex 5077059.068013452; upkeep 25422940.931986548; owner earnings 551377059.0680134. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009207962109622676.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 36400000; owner earnings 237700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); FY2024: growth capex 12200000; upkeep 20100000; owner earnings 267100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04567577686259828.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: growth capex 19500000; upkeep 21100000; owner earnings 285700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06825341267063353.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Dividend observations: [[2016,338300000],[2017,416600000],[2018,732300000],[2019,747800000],[2020,350700000],[2021,749600000],[2022,750100000],[2023,255400000],[2024,191800000],[2025,192100000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml (filed 2026-03-24); FY2025: cash repurchases 2300000 GBP.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PSN.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.23 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 6.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-24); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0010610036738177842. Price 1263.5; FX 100; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.6631612492033143 → FY2025 0.8812542990835819. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 1,694.00 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 1,700.00 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 1,776.00 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 1,929.00 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 2,061.00 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 2,094.00 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 2,330.00 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 2,455.00 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 2,242.00 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 2,504.00 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 2,659.00 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 2,582.00 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 2,802.00 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 2,540.00 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 2,738.00 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 2,502.00 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 2,601.00 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 2,530.00 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 2,715.00 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 2,832.00 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 2,533.00 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 2,482.00 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 2,433.00 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 2,365.00 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 2,294.00 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 1,900.00 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 1,930.00 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 2,375.00 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 2,433.00 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 2,170.00 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 2,236.00 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 1,967.00 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 1,997.00 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 2,009.00 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 1,902.50 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 2,170.00 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 2,277.00 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 2,558.00 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 2,695.00 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 3,053.00 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 2,839.00 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 1,916.50 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 2,205.00 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 2,293.00 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 2,286.00 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 2,402.00 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 2,620.00 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 2,473.00 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 2,336.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 2,656.00 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 2,767.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 2,551.00 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 2,590.00 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 2,940.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 3,132.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 3,160.00 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 2,958.00 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 2,904.00 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 2,940.00 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 2,668.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 2,721.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 2,737.00 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 2,856.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 2,394.00 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 2,413.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 2,151.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 2,100.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 2,177.00 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 1,863.00 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 1,884.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 1,476.00 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 1,237.50 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 1,305.00 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 1,272.00 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 1,217.00 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 1,412.00 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 1,452.50 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 1,256.00 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 1,314.00 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 1,201.50 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 1,025.50 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 1,159.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 1,066.00 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 1,077.50 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 1,016.00 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 1,251.50 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 1,389.00 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 1,463.00 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 1,363.50 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 1,316.00 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 1,304.00 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 1,445.00 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 1,352.00 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 1,588.50 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 1,644.00 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 1,643.50 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 1,467.00 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 1,258.00 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 1,198.00 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 1,266.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 1,205.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 1,191.50 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 1,295.00 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 1,333.00 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 1,296.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 1,145.00 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 1,063.00 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 1,159.00 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 1,209.00 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 1,335.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 1,358.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 1,406.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 1,506.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 1,068.50 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 1,057.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 1,113.50 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 1,050.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 1,107.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 1,178.50 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 1,315.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 1,263.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2016: low GBX 1,827.37 per share, central GBX 2,042.42 per share, high GBX 2,328.70 per share

- FY2017: low GBX 2,531.62 per share, central GBX 2,828.94 per share, high GBX 3,224.73 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 3,449.91 per share, central GBX 4,715.86 per share, high GBX 5,481.39 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 3,632.85 per share, central GBX 5,085.97 per share, high GBX 5,932.12 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 2,840.00 per share, central GBX 3,181.29 per share, high GBX 3,635.62 per share

- FY2021: low GBX 3,168.71 per share, central GBX 3,560.49 per share, high GBX 4,082.38 per share

- FY2022: low GBX 3,572.97 per share, central GBX 4,766.87 per share, high GBX 5,544.71 per share

- FY2023: low GBX 1,914.35 per share, central GBX 2,162.61 per share, high GBX 2,493.09 per share

- FY2024: low GBX 1,621.96 per share, central GBX 1,837.31 per share, high GBX 2,123.98 per share

- FY2025: low GBX 1,097.00 per share, central GBX 1,246.47 per share, high GBX 1,445.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:06.122Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31/2025-12-31/ESEF/GB/0/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31/reports/213800XI72Y57UWN6F31-2025-12-31-T01.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-24.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations