# Publicis Groupe (PUB.PA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/PUB.PA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 103.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 81.41 per share, central EUR 91.66 per share, high EUR 105.30 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 91.66 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.1% at the stated quote. About 9.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; FR 10-year bond 4.8% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.10×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.15×

- FY2017: 0.17×

- FY2018: 0.16×

- FY2019: 0.14×

- FY2020: 0.13×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.15×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.5 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 37.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 9

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.7%

- FY2017: 12.5%

- FY2018: 10.1%

- FY2019: >100%

- FY2020: 7.5%

- FY2021: 7.7%

- FY2022: 9.6%

- FY2023: 8.6%

- FY2024: 10.3%

- FY2025: 11.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 7.3B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 6.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -9.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.17×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.08×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.03×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 12.5% vs 10.3%

- Per-share earnings: 3.71 to 6.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- Market cap gain: EUR 7.7B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 6.5B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: EUR 2.82

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 3.71

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 6.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.04

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 18B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 9.5B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 12.5%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR -2.34

- FY2017: EUR 3.71

- FY2018: EUR 3.87

- FY2019: EUR 3.53

- FY2020: EUR 2.37

- FY2021: EUR 4.04

- FY2022: EUR 4.80

- FY2023: EUR 5.16

- FY2024: EUR 6.63

- FY2025: EUR 6.52

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.93×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.80×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.36×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.4%

- FY2017: -2.8%

- FY2018: -3.8%

- FY2019: -4.6%

- FY2020: -7.9%

- FY2021: -2.3%

- FY2022: -3.3%

- FY2023: -2.0%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: -3.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years · "Publicis Lifts Outlook, Says AI Is Boosting Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +8.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.317Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 2.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-10-14: Publicis Lifts Outlook, Says AI Is Boosting Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e8ea6660-fff7-33a9-97a3-35f428700d68/publicis-lifts-outlook%2C-says.html))

- 2026-02-03: Publicis Shares Fall After Outlook Fails to Dispel AI Fears ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/a05aff6a-bb28-3d0a-b64b-95695a788275/publicis-shares-fall-after.html))

- 2026-05-17: Publicis strikes $2.2 billion deal for LiveRamp to boost agentic AI capabilities ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/publicis-strikes-2-2-billion-202634346.html))

- 2026-07-16: Publicis addresses LiveRamp deal, lagging Sapient arm as it raises outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/publicis-addresses-liveramp-deal-lagging-105600852.html))

- 2026-10-13: Publicis Q3 organic growth accelerates to 5%, confirms 2026 outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/media-advertising/articles/publicis-q3-organic-growth-accelerates-062746204.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +8.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 9.7B 

- FY2017: EUR 9.3B 

- FY2018: EUR 10.0B 

- FY2019: EUR 11B 

- FY2020: EUR 11B 

- FY2021: EUR 12B 

- FY2022: EUR 14B 

- FY2023: EUR 15B 

- FY2024: EUR 16B 

- FY2025: EUR 17B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 43.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 38.4% 

- FY2017: 37.2% 

- FY2018: 43.2% 

- FY2019: 14.3% 

- FY2020: 12.9% 

- FY2021: 12.2% 

- FY2022: 14.5% 

- FY2023: 43.2% 

- FY2024: 43.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in advertising agencies; annual sales are EUR 17.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2025: revenue 17399000000; grossProfit 17399000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PUB.PA: Publicis Groupe S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides marketing, communications, and digital business transformation services in North America, Europe, the Asia Pacific, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, and internationally. The company offers power of one, publicis communications; publicis sapient; publicis media; publicis health; and other services. Publicis Groupe S.A. was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Paris, France.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.2% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 10.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12660580824257955],[2017,0.1251524471863455],[2018,0.10088249364252083],[2019,1.4836812515712496],[2020,0.07505527241620281],[2021,0.07731865967957928],[2022,0.09610940078768543],[2023,0.08630234131621699],[2024,0.10261719009265124],[2025,0.11919673459732152]]; median 0.10174984186758604. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 147 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 136000000; owner earnings 960000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 207000000; owner earnings 928000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 232000000; owner earnings 892600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 167000000; owner earnings 919600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 139000000; owner earnings 1203200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 198000000; owner earnings 1334600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 180000000; owner earnings 1411600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 238000000; owner earnings 1657000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 250000000; owner earnings 1698600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,193000000],[2017,170000000],[2018,210000000],[2019,285000000],[2020,102000000],[2021,227000000],[2022,83200000],[2023,726000000],[2024,853000000],[2025,903000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 147000000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 7.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); PUB.PA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.317 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 2.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:22.137Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.02382415693446952. Price 103.75; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.175447562778279 → FY2025 6.7030428878726065. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 62.50 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 61.23 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 65.55 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 63.56 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 63.63 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 65.51 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 66.27 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 68.15 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 65.31 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 63.91 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 56.70 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 59.09 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 55.96 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 55.80 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 56.65 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 55.68 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 62.04 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 56.58 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 62.00 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 59.54 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 58.94 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 54.66 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 55.30 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 51.48 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 51.24 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 52.36 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 50.08 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 53.30 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 48.73 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 47.73 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 52.88 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 48.90 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 46.43 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 44.71 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 43.62 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 45.12 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 38.55 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 39.94 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 40.36 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 40.03 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 34.98 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 26.12 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 27.13 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 25.52 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 28.81 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 27.25 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 29.37 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 27.58 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 29.80 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 38.09 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 40.76 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 42.76 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 48.54 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 52.04 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 53.86 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 55.50 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 53.94 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 53.22 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 55.52 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 58.26 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 57.94 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 57.14 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 59.20 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 59.70 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 59.64 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 55.26 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 57.58 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 50.88 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 46.66 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 51.90 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 48.75 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 48.90 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 56.74 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 62.40 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 59.42 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 64.74 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 75.24 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 71.78 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 74.12 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 69.32 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 73.50 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 73.42 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 72.06 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 71.76 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 71.72 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 77.58 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 84.00 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 93.10 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 97.78 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 101.05 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 103.85 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 102.80 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 99.38 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 96.62 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 99.42 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 98.20 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 97.72 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 102.70 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 103.00 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 102.95 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 95.50 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 86.74 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 89.26 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 95.88 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 95.68 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 80.20 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 78.84 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 81.68 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 86.80 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 83.98 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 88.62 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 84.20 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 75.42 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 70.84 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 79.38 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 83.74 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 86.46 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 92.62 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 100.95 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 94.52 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 100.95 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 58.56 per share, central EUR 65.39 per share, high EUR 74.48 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 54.67 per share, central EUR 60.89 per share, high EUR 69.18 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 57.10 per share, central EUR 63.23 per share, high EUR 71.39 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 60.39 per share, central EUR 66.88 per share, high EUR 75.50 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 55.68 per share, central EUR 61.39 per share, high EUR 68.98 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 60.61 per share, central EUR 67.10 per share, high EUR 75.75 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 73.89 per share, central EUR 81.73 per share, high EUR 92.17 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 76.70 per share, central EUR 84.94 per share, high EUR 95.92 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 80.81 per share, central EUR 90.02 per share, high EUR 102.28 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 88.47 per share, central EUR 98.57 per share, high EUR 112.02 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:10.979Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations