# Ryanair Holdings (RYA.IR)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/RYA.IR

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:30.020Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 22.43 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 24.64 per share, central EUR 31.55 per share, high EUR 36.50 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 31.55 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:30.020Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 13.1% at the stated quote. About 13.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; IE 10-year bond 3.6% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 5.23×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.23×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: -0.51×

- FY2021: -0.07×

- FY2022: -0.07×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.11×

- FY2026: 0.15×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.13×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 25.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -3.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 21.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 18.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 16.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 29.3%

- FY2018: 31.4%

- FY2019: 19.1%

- FY2020: -12.3%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: -3.8%

- FY2023: 25.7%

- FY2024: 29.7%

- FY2025: 24.4%

- FY2026: 26.5%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.91×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 6.2B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 6.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 12.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 3.03×

- FY2023: 0.97×

- FY2024: 0.98×

- FY2025: 0.98×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 29.3% vs 26.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.24 to 1.67 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Market cap gain: EUR 8.1B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 3.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 3.8%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 1.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 1.67

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.31

- Average buyback yield: 4.9%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 100M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 8.9B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 29.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: EUR 1.10

- FY2018: EUR 1.26

- FY2019: EUR 0.58

- FY2020: EUR -0.90

- FY2021: EUR -0.21

- FY2022: EUR -0.21

- FY2023: EUR 1.15

- FY2024: EUR 1.67

- FY2025: EUR 1.45

- FY2026: EUR 2.04

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.54×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.4%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.70×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -5.1%

- FY2018: -6.3%

- FY2019: -10.7%

- FY2020: -21.2%

- FY2021: 17.9%

- FY2022: -14.4%

- FY2023: -15.7%

- FY2024: -7.2%

- FY2025: -10.3%

- FY2026: -7.7%

## Holders

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 24% since Dec 2025 · "Ryanair (ISE:RYA) Maintains Strong Traffic But Weaker Earnings Cloud Its Cost‑Leadership Investment Story" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2026) · sales +0.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.869Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 0.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-19: Ryanair to raise prices as it seeks return to profit growth ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-raise-prices-seeks-return-082210805.html))

- 2025-07-21: Ryanair's April-June net profit doubles on Easter timing, fare rebound ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanairs-april-june-net-profit-050309290.html))

- 2025-11-03: Quicker Boeing deliveries help Ryanair boost profit, traffic forecast ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/quicker-boeing-deliveries-help-ryanair-105748315.html))

- 2026-04-28: Ryanair CEO Signals Fuel Supply Stability Through June, Flags Summer Booking Hesitation ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/ryanair-ceo-signals-fuel-supply-180023167.html))

- 2026-05-18: Ryanair flags weakness in summer fares, but risk of fuel shortage recedes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/ryanair-flags-weakness-summer-fares-100528339.html))

- 2026-07-20: Ryanair profits hit by soaring jet fuel prices and fare cuts ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ryanair-profits-hit-soaring-jet-072251452.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +0.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2018: EUR 7.2B 

- FY2019: EUR 8.5B 

- FY2020: EUR 1.6B 

- FY2021: EUR 4.8B 

- FY2022: EUR 4.8B 

- FY2023: EUR 11B 

- FY2024: EUR 13B 

- FY2025: EUR 14B 

- FY2026: EUR 16B 

- FY2027: EUR 16B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 35.4% 

- FY2018: 36.9% 

- FY2019: 28.9% 

- FY2021: 16.5% 

- FY2022: 1.5% 

- FY2023: 20.6% 

- FY2024: 22.2% 

- FY2025: 19.0% 

- FY2026: 22.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in airlines; annual sales are EUR 15.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 15544300000; grossProfit 3510000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19% to 22.6% during 2024–26; it earns 25.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.2934196833718541],[2018,0.3135135054814434],[2019,0.19143934118351738],[2020,-0.12266708596163452],[2021,-0.03856206519864313],[2022,-0.03821927175337626],[2023,0.2574389323411781],[2024,0.2971397789164643],[2025,0.24445370410460257],[2026,0.26464904152131363]]; median 0.2509463182228903. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 24.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 12.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 112449676.81853199; upkeep 1337350323.181468; owner earnings 476049676.818532. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23621416481162175.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 518445944.5509677; upkeep 952154055.4490323; owner earnings 1059045944.5509677. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4895405598014798.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 952000000; upkeep 689200000; owner earnings 648700000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4675504855865578.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 294700000; owner earnings 92780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 1075500000; upkeep 839200000; owner earnings 1272540000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8451600735536801.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 1397599999; upkeep 994300001; owner earnings 1884180000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7417550334893693.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 338100000; upkeep 1214400000; owner earnings 1581780000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21374653870955507.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 519000000; upkeep 1373400000; owner earnings 2144720000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24198963034801746.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.12370573224019554, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2024,199500000],[2025,437700000],[2026,443300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 536500000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 4.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); RYA.IR SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 4.226 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

US import tariffs could raise product costs.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm (filed 2026-06-22); terially adversely affected.

To address these constraints, the Group intends to establish two engine shop (MRO) facilities designed to expand internal maintenance capabilities and reduce reliance on third-party providers. The development of these MRO facilities involves substantial capital investment, regulatory approvals, specialized workforce recruitment, and the integration of complex technical processes. Delays, cost overruns, or challenges in attracting and retaining qualified technicians could limit the Group’s effectiveness in addressing industry MRO capacity shortages.

Imposition of tariffs by the U.S. and/or other countries, escalating global trade tensions and an increase in trade protectionism could have a material adverse effect on Ryanair’s business, results of operation and financial condition. There is significant uncertainty about the future relationship between the U.S. and other countries with respect to tariffs, trade policies, taxes, and government regulations. Throughout 2025, the U.S. administration announced and implemented far-reaching tariffs against a broad spectrum of countries and trading partners, resulting in a more restrictive trade environment. In February 2026, the Supreme Court of the U.S. invalidated certain of the expansive tariffs previously imposed by the U.S. administration, prompting the U.S. administration to implement the current temporary 15% global tariff under alternative statutory authority. Following a period of significant trade disruption and uncertainty, in May 2026, the EU and the U.S. provisionally agreed to implement a trade agreement, originally announced in August 2025, providing for a tariff ceiling of 15% on most EU exports and exemptions for aircraft and aircraft parts. Notwithstanding the EU-U.S. trade agreement, significant uncertainty remains as to the legal basis, scope, and durability of U.S. tariff policy more broadly, including the possibility of further judicial challenges, changes in tariff rates, or retaliatory or responsive measures by U.S. trading partners.

Ryanair sources its aircraft and many aircraft parts from the U.S., and the imposition of new tariffs, an increase in existing tariffs, retaliatory tariffs or any other escalation of trade disputes involving the EU and/or the U.S. may lead to higher costs that Ryanair may have to absorb, negatively affect Ryanair’s supply chains and adversely affect its business and results of operations. As a result, Ryanair may have to postpone or cancel delivery of certain orders, including aircraft or parts, and may choose not to make more of such orders in the future.

The effects of these tariffs cannot be predicted with certainty, and there can be no assurance that such measures will not contribute to a broader global economic downturn or global recession. Ryanair is unable to predict the evolution or outcome of these developments or

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 0.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.01751079824632823. Price 22.43; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.2431031733375857 → FY2026 2.014956783164224. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 12.60 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 13.70 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 14.51 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 14.33 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 14.30 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 14.53 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 15.95 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 18.00 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 17.96 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 17.77 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 17.86 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 16.32 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 16.83 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 17.55 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 15.05 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 16.67 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 16.20 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 16.00 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 15.51 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 16.35 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 15.81 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 14.10 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 14.20 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 13.12 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 11.94 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 11.66 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 10.75 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 11.00 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 12.15 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 11.67 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 11.94 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 10.01 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 10.12 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 9.66 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 9.14 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 10.56 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 12.08 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 13.88 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 14.63 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 14.90 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 12.26 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 9.21 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 10.40 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 11.17 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 10.66 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 10.54 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 12.09 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 11.41 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 11.83 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 15.28 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 16.26 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 14.30 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 16.60 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 16.55 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 16.90 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 16.87 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 15.96 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 16.58 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 15.86 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 16.33 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 16.96 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 14.24 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 15.25 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 16.42 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 15.51 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 13.59 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 14.61 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 14.28 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 11.28 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 12.77 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 12.35 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 10.48 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 12.30 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 12.83 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 12.21 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 14.86 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 14.70 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 14.88 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 14.84 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 16.45 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 17.22 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 15.72 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 16.21 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 15.92 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 14.18 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 17.58 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 19.08 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 19.32 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 20.16 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 21.03 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 20.10 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 17.47 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 16.33 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 14.64 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 15.94 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 16.46 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 17.60 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 18.63 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 19.07 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 20.35 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 21.05 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 18.63 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 20.78 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 23.37 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 24.02 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 25.91 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 25.25 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 24.70 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 26.25 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 28.22 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 29.55 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 28.61 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 27.42 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 23.87 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 22.42 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 25.13 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 27.35 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 24.26 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 23.20 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 23.49 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 22.71 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2017: low EUR 11.32 per share, central EUR 13.24 per share, high EUR 14.89 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 15.49 per share, central EUR 20.83 per share, high EUR 23.94 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 17.95 per share, central EUR 24.50 per share, high EUR 28.32 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 4.53 per share, central EUR 4.70 per share, high EUR 4.92 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 5.99 per share, central EUR 6.45 per share, high EUR 7.06 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 3.97 per share, central EUR 4.09 per share, high EUR 4.25 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 6.38 per share, central EUR 7.44 per share, high EUR 8.06 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 6.44 per share, central EUR 7.76 per share, high EUR 8.53 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 21.52 per share, central EUR 27.64 per share, high EUR 31.80 per share

- FY2026: low EUR 24.62 per share, central EUR 31.33 per share, high EUR 36.13 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:14.393Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1038683/000110465926076131/tmb-20260331x20f.htm); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Glenn Greenberg](https://gigainvestors.com/CCM): 3,958,684 RYAAY shares; USD 256,325,000 reported position value; 5.59% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): 790,544 RYAAY shares; USD 51,187,000 reported position value; 0.07% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.
- [Francis Chou](https://gigainvestors.com/ca): 5,937 RYAAY shares; USD 384,000 reported position value; 0.18% of portfolio; hold; quarter 2026 Q2.