# Saga (SAGA.LSE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SAGA.LSE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:42:13.124Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2026.

Listing currency: GBX. Reporting currency: GBP.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: GBX 788.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 0.65×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.24×

- FY2018: 0.24×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.13×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: -0.04×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 48.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 47.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -7.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: >100%

- FY2018: 97.3%

- FY2019: 74.0%

- FY2020: 41.0%

- FY2021: 6.0%

- FY2022: 4.1%

- FY2023: 8.2%

- FY2024: -4.4%

- FY2025: 9.1%

- FY2026: 25.4%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: GBP -351M

- Net income, five-year total: GBP -551M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -19.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -3.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -25.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -21.3%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: GBP -22M

- FY2023: GBP -245M

- FY2024: GBP 7.3M

- FY2025: GBP -121M

- FY2026: GBP 29M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 97.3% vs 9.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.89 to -0.81 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- Market cap gain: GBP 639M

- Cumulative retained earnings: GBP -1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 7.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: GBP -2.69

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: GBP 1.89

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: GBP -0.81

- Average buyback yield: 93.6%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: GBP 388M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: GBP -799M

- ROIC, first three-year median: 97.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 9.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: GBP 2.10

- FY2018: GBP 1.83

- FY2019: GBP -1.97

- FY2020: GBP -3.82

- FY2021: GBP -0.49

- FY2022: GBP -0.20

- FY2023: GBP -1.86

- FY2024: GBP -0.81

- FY2025: GBP -1.17

- FY2026: GBP 0.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.75×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 3.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 8.48×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 3.43×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: -13.4%

- FY2020: -19.3%

- FY2021: 0.5%

- FY2022: -3.2%

- FY2023: -12.4%

- FY2024: -10.4%

- FY2025: -17.5%

- FY2026: -8.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 615% since Oct 2023 · sales +12.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:12.264Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +12.2%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31/reports/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31-T01.html; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2017: GBP 888M 

- FY2018: GBP 869M 

- FY2019: GBP 843M 

- FY2020: GBP 797M 

- FY2021: GBP 338M 

- FY2022: GBP 377M 

- FY2023: GBP 581M 

- FY2024: GBP 565M 

- FY2025: GBP 588M 

- FY2026: GBP 660M 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 48.3%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31/reports/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31-T01.html; observed 2026-05-27.

- FY2017: 49.5% 

- FY2018: 49.9% 

- FY2019: 48.9% 

- FY2020: 44.3% 

- FY2021: 68.1% 

- FY2022: 59.1% 

- FY2023: 45.2% 

- FY2024: 46.5% 

- FY2025: 47.5% 

- FY2026: 48.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in travel services; annual sales are GBP 660 million.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2026-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: revenue 660000000; grossProfit 318900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAGA.LSE: Saga plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides package and cruise holidays, general insurance, and personal finance products and services in the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Travel, Insurance, and Other Businesses and Central Costs. The company offers travel, motor, home, private medical, and other insurance products. It also operates and delivers ocean and river cruise holidays, as well as package tour and other holiday products; and provides savings accounts, equity release, legal services, mortgages, investment products and services. In addition, the company is involved in mailing house; publishing and delivering content provision of insurance broking, repair of automotive vehicles, debt service, motor accident management, and printing and mailing services; Saga Money which offers personal finance products; and Saga Publishing business. The company was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 46.5% to 48.3% during 2024–26; it earns 17.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2024-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 46.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2025-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 47.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2026-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 48.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,1.0076924936915819],[2018,0.9728814238182292],[2019,0.7403144654088051],[2020,0.41031987205117953],[2021,0.0600241754446555],[2022,0.04068796992481203],[2023,0.08200312445755945],[2024,-0.043948683015440505],[2025,0.09074324324324325],[2026,0.2536034242306194]]; median 0.1721733337369313. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 53% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 6 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2017-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 43900000; owner earnings 153100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2018-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 82500000; owner earnings 93600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2024-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 26700000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7340000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SAGA.LSE.json#2026-01-31 (filed 2026-05-27); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 16100000; cash acquisitions 15600000; owner earnings 29420000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.53025152957172.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Dividend observations: [[2017,86300000],[2018,98800000],[2019,100900000],[2020,25800000],[2021,100000],[2022,100000],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 36.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SAGA.LSE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 36.738 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 1.8 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-05-27); Closing price 788 GBX; reporting-to-trading FX 100; FY2026 annual sales per share 4.486743711760707; price multiple 1.7562848484848486. FY2026 cash earnings/share 0.2. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (GBX per share)

- 2016-10: GBX 180.69 per share

- 2016-11: GBX 173.67 per share

- 2016-12: GBX 177.68 per share

- 2017-01: GBX 168.30 per share

- 2017-02: GBX 172.22 per share

- 2017-03: GBX 185.06 per share

- 2017-04: GBX 190.89 per share

- 2017-05: GBX 184.06 per share

- 2017-06: GBX 190.70 per share

- 2017-07: GBX 190.07 per share

- 2017-08: GBX 184.69 per share

- 2017-09: GBX 180.69 per share

- 2017-10: GBX 174.04 per share

- 2017-11: GBX 166.39 per share

- 2017-12: GBX 114.75 per share

- 2018-01: GBX 105.28 per share

- 2018-02: GBX 103.82 per share

- 2018-03: GBX 102.73 per share

- 2018-04: GBX 123.77 per share

- 2018-05: GBX 115.30 per share

- 2018-06: GBX 114.39 per share

- 2018-07: GBX 113.11 per share

- 2018-08: GBX 115.39 per share

- 2018-09: GBX 119.12 per share

- 2018-10: GBX 108.47 per share

- 2018-11: GBX 102.64 per share

- 2018-12: GBX 94.35 per share

- 2019-01: GBX 99.36 per share

- 2019-02: GBX 110.29 per share

- 2019-03: GBX 101.27 per share

- 2019-04: GBX 53.64 per share

- 2019-05: GBX 38.76 per share

- 2019-06: GBX 36.23 per share

- 2019-07: GBX 40.55 per share

- 2019-08: GBX 37.45 per share

- 2019-09: GBX 45.99 per share

- 2019-10: GBX 42.73 per share

- 2019-11: GBX 46.72 per share

- 2019-12: GBX 48.27 per share

- 2020-01: GBX 38.09 per share

- 2020-02: GBX 29.42 per share

- 2020-03: GBX 15.45 per share

- 2020-04: GBX 14.79 per share

- 2020-05: GBX 18.91 per share

- 2020-06: GBX 14.05 per share

- 2020-07: GBX 13.75 per share

- 2020-08: GBX 12.39 per share

- 2020-09: GBX 12.50 per share

- 2020-10: GBX 138.00 per share

- 2020-11: GBX 247.40 per share

- 2020-12: GBX 253.00 per share

- 2021-01: GBX 246.80 per share

- 2021-02: GBX 377.80 per share

- 2021-03: GBX 340.00 per share

- 2021-04: GBX 380.00 per share

- 2021-05: GBX 379.60 per share

- 2021-06: GBX 397.80 per share

- 2021-07: GBX 355.60 per share

- 2021-08: GBX 356.40 per share

- 2021-09: GBX 352.00 per share

- 2021-10: GBX 312.00 per share

- 2021-11: GBX 256.80 per share

- 2021-12: GBX 285.00 per share

- 2022-01: GBX 284.80 per share

- 2022-02: GBX 281.00 per share

- 2022-03: GBX 232.00 per share

- 2022-04: GBX 225.00 per share

- 2022-05: GBX 223.40 per share

- 2022-06: GBX 178.10 per share

- 2022-07: GBX 158.00 per share

- 2022-08: GBX 149.90 per share

- 2022-09: GBX 89.60 per share

- 2022-10: GBX 85.90 per share

- 2022-11: GBX 96.65 per share

- 2022-12: GBX 125.80 per share

- 2023-01: GBX 186.30 per share

- 2023-02: GBX 173.70 per share

- 2023-03: GBX 133.30 per share

- 2023-04: GBX 130.60 per share

- 2023-05: GBX 111.60 per share

- 2023-06: GBX 119.60 per share

- 2023-07: GBX 124.00 per share

- 2023-08: GBX 146.60 per share

- 2023-09: GBX 124.00 per share

- 2023-10: GBX 110.20 per share

- 2023-11: GBX 110.20 per share

- 2023-12: GBX 145.80 per share

- 2024-01: GBX 137.20 per share

- 2024-02: GBX 122.20 per share

- 2024-03: GBX 122.40 per share

- 2024-04: GBX 105.40 per share

- 2024-05: GBX 137.80 per share

- 2024-06: GBX 110.20 per share

- 2024-07: GBX 109.60 per share

- 2024-08: GBX 104.60 per share

- 2024-09: GBX 111.40 per share

- 2024-10: GBX 112.40 per share

- 2024-11: GBX 113.80 per share

- 2024-12: GBX 120.60 per share

- 2025-01: GBX 124.00 per share

- 2025-02: GBX 121.00 per share

- 2025-03: GBX 122.20 per share

- 2025-04: GBX 130.60 per share

- 2025-05: GBX 143.60 per share

- 2025-06: GBX 175.00 per share

- 2025-07: GBX 179.20 per share

- 2025-08: GBX 214.50 per share

- 2025-09: GBX 273.50 per share

- 2025-10: GBX 266.50 per share

- 2025-11: GBX 269.00 per share

- 2025-12: GBX 391.50 per share

- 2026-01: GBX 520.00 per share

- 2026-02: GBX 548.00 per share

- 2026-03: GBX 467.00 per share

- 2026-04: GBX 589.00 per share

- 2026-05: GBX 578.00 per share

- 2026-06: GBX 641.00 per share

- 2026-07: GBX 672.00 per share

- 2026-08: GBX 679.00 per share

- 2026-09: GBX 787.00 per share

- 2026-10: GBX 788.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (GBX per share)

- FY2017: low GBX 1,417.91 per share, central GBX 1,612.19 per share, high GBX 1,870.81 per share

- FY2018: low GBX 1,385.32 per share, central GBX 1,575.41 per share, high GBX 1,828.45 per share

- FY2019: low GBX 1,246.94 per share, central GBX 1,413.08 per share, high GBX 1,634.25 per share

- FY2020: low GBX 1,399.37 per share, central GBX 1,557.25 per share, high GBX 1,767.43 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95/2026-01-31/ESEF/GB/0/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31/reports/2138004WWUJN94K2LH95-2026-01-31-T01.html); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-05-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations