# Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget SCA (publ) (SCA-B.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SCA-B.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 124.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 48.04 per share, central SEK 54.67 per share, high SEK 63.48 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 54.67 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.88×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.10×

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.21×

- FY2019: 1.00×

- FY2020: 0.06×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.42×

- FY2023: 0.27×

- FY2024: 0.25×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 60.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 5.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 60.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 69.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 15.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.1%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.6%

- FY2017: 4.5%

- FY2018: 8.0%

- FY2019: 20.1%

- FY2020: 1.1%

- FY2021: 6.7%

- FY2022: 6.4%

- FY2023: 3.4%

- FY2024: 3.4%

- FY2025: 1.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.80×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 19B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 23B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -51.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 9.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.49×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 0.64×

- FY2024: 0.97×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.0% vs 3.4%

- Per-share earnings: 9.97 to 5.18 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: SEK 49B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK -2.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.9%

- Per-share value change: SEK -4.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 9.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 5.18

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 5.4B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 191B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 7.93

- FY2017: SEK 201.95

- FY2018: SEK 5.21

- FY2019: SEK 22.10

- FY2020: SEK 1.09

- FY2021: SEK 8.46

- FY2022: SEK 9.61

- FY2023: SEK 5.23

- FY2024: SEK 5.18

- FY2025: SEK 4.56

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.08×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.0%

- FY2017: 237.3%

- FY2018: 0.3%

- FY2019: 12.3%

- FY2020: -2.8%

- FY2021: -0.0%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: 0.1%

- FY2025: -0.6%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Apr 2022 · sales +1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:07.041Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: SEK 117B 

- FY2017: SEK 17B 

- FY2018: SEK 19B 

- FY2019: SEK 20B 

- FY2020: SEK 18B 

- FY2021: SEK 19B 

- FY2022: SEK 21B 

- FY2023: SEK 18B 

- FY2024: SEK 20B 

- FY2025: SEK 20B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 26.5% 

- FY2017: 67.0% 

- FY2018: 70.5% 

- FY2020: 67.9% 

- FY2021: 82.8% 

- FY2022: 86.4% 

- FY2023: 69.2% 

- FY2024: 84.5% 

- FY2025: 9.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in paper & paper products; annual sales are SEK 20.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2025: revenue 20427000000; grossProfit 1835000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9% to 84.5% during 2023–25; it earns 5.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 69.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 84.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.08587031636154936],[2017,0.044863223824909475],[2018,0.07974616013668008],[2019,0.2011627217499998],[2020,0.010588418074436827],[2021,0.06735675948377962],[2022,0.06360095472359022],[2023,0.034001548971844896],[2024,0.03449812150680234],[2025,0.01632698166854244]]; median 0.05423208927424984. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 22% of cash earnings on expansion; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 3577000000; owner earnings 139381000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2018: growth capex 1492396465.1177378; upkeep 1593603534.8822622; owner earnings 3315396465.117738. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.45014117642329665.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2019: growth capex 677000000; upkeep 1612000000; owner earnings 15351200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04410078690916671.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2021: growth capex 758465640.1113739; upkeep 4352534359.888626; owner earnings 2936265640.111374. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.258309612642065.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2022: growth capex 4409000000; upkeep 1552000000; owner earnings 6630400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6649674227799228.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3135000000; owner earnings 2366000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2024: growth capex 55000000; upkeep 2116000000; owner earnings 3517800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.015634771732332707.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); FY2025: growth capex 683000000; upkeep 2132000000; owner earnings 3107400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.21979790178284095.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,4228000000],[2017,4214000000],[2018,1054000000],[2019,1229000000],[2020,1405000000],[2021,1405000000],[2022,2282000000],[2023,1756000000],[2024,1931000000],[2025,2107000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 9.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); SCA-B.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 9.053 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 8.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:11.309Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14851732697381992. Price 124; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 10.86003132564431 → FY2025 4.424337128964857. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 52.18 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 50.16 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 52.47 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 53.63 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 56.56 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 58.93 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 59.83 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 62.54 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 63.75 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 66.85 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 66.25 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 69.00 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 78.60 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 81.65 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 84.55 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 81.54 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 82.50 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 88.92 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 97.32 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 97.68 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 97.32 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 91.06 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 106.45 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 100.70 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 86.62 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 73.22 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 68.72 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 79.46 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 85.16 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 80.60 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 82.82 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 72.62 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 80.70 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 80.30 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 84.66 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 87.78 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 98.36 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 95.30 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 95.00 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 96.52 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 91.66 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 100.45 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 105.25 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 117.50 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 110.80 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 105.80 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 111.45 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 123.05 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 120.75 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 138.65 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 143.30 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 147.45 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 145.25 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 154.55 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 148.50 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 137.70 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 140.25 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 160.00 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 152.25 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 136.40 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 133.90 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 147.45 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 160.75 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 160.95 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 155.50 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 183.45 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 192.15 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 176.85 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 152.80 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 147.85 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 160.35 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 142.00 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 130.30 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 141.10 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 131.95 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 144.70 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 146.30 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 136.45 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 140.45 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 143.90 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 137.45 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 139.80 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 146.00 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 149.95 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 152.95 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 155.85 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 151.10 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 142.05 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 146.65 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 164.30 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 162.05 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 160.85 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 156.55 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 145.60 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 142.55 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 147.95 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 140.85 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 141.70 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 140.45 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 152.80 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 147.40 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 132.25 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 125.30 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 129.65 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 123.00 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 122.85 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 128.70 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 124.35 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 126.75 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 122.65 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 122.60 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 111.55 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 122.85 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 108.80 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 105.00 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 101.80 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 99.10 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 108.25 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 114.30 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 120.55 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 124.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 119.99 per share, central SEK 139.49 per share, high SEK 161.71 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 16.74 per share, central SEK 19.01 per share, high SEK 22.03 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 19.69 per share, central SEK 22.36 per share, high SEK 25.90 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 53.99 per share, central SEK 61.42 per share, high SEK 71.31 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 51.94 per share, central SEK 58.92 per share, high SEK 68.22 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 52.75 per share, central SEK 59.89 per share, high SEK 69.40 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 57.80 per share, central SEK 65.69 per share, high SEK 76.19 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 44.10 per share, central SEK 50.15 per share, high SEK 58.21 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 50.44 per share, central SEK 57.21 per share, high SEK 66.23 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 49.85 per share, central SEK 56.69 per share, high SEK 65.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:52.348Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations