# Simulations Plus (SLP.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SLP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T06:37:42.601Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $18.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-07.

Estimated value: low $12.99 per share, central $17.53 per share, high $20.17 per share. Buy at or below the central value $17.53 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T06:37:42.601Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.6% at the stated quote. About 9.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 2.74×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.34×

- FY2018: 0.35×

- FY2019: 0.31×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.28×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: -0.89×

- LTM to May 2026: 0.14×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 15.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 32.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 15.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 74.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 58.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 23.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 38.2%

- FY2018: 50.3%

- FY2019: 54.6%

- FY2020: 33.9%

- FY2021: 32.5%

- FY2022: 32.0%

- FY2023: 20.3%

- FY2024: 7.3%

- FY2025: -113.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$11M

- Net income, five-year total: -$23M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -153.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 18.9%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: $8.9M

- FY2022: $12M

- FY2023: $9.7M

- FY2024: $15M

- FY2025: -$57M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: 0.23 to 0.49 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Market cap gain: $35M

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$48M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 10.1%

- Per-share value change: $0.26

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.23

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.49

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $14M

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.22

- FY2017: $0.33

- FY2018: $0.50

- FY2019: $0.48

- FY2020: $0.50

- FY2021: $0.47

- FY2022: $0.60

- FY2023: $0.49

- FY2024: $0.49

- FY2025: -$3.22

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -62.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.41×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 35.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.58×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.8%

- FY2018: -0.8%

- FY2019: -6.6%

- FY2020: -0.9%

- FY2021: -5.2%

- FY2022: -2.8%

- FY2023: -6.2%

- FY2024: -1.6%

- FY2025: -62.8%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 71% since Jul 2022 · "Simulations Plus Sees Weaker Demand Persist, Outlook Softens" (finance.yahoo.com, Jul 2025) · sales +3.6%

Story as of 2026-10-11T09:49:09.867Z; price observation 2026-10-07.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-12: Simulations Plus shares drop over 12% premarket as Q3 revenue forecast misses expectations ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4457506-simulations-plus-shares-drop-over-12-premarket-as-q3-revenue-forecast-misses-expectations?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-07-15: Simulations Plus Sees Weaker Demand Persist, Outlook Softens ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/simulations-plus-sees-weaker-demand-175628118.html))

- 2026-01-09: SLP Stock Crashes on Q1 Earnings Miss, Software Headwinds Hurt Sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/slp-stock-crashes-q1-earnings-122500890.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000102345925000060/simu-20250831.htm; observed 2025-12-01.

- FY2017: $24M 

- FY2018: $30M 

- FY2019: $34M 

- FY2020: $42M 

- FY2021: $46M 

- FY2022: $54M 

- FY2023: $60M 

- FY2024: $70M 

- FY2025: $79M 

- FY2026: $82M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 58.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000102345925000060/simu-20250831.htm; observed 2025-12-01.

- FY2016: 76.4% 

- FY2017: 73.9% 

- FY2018: 73.1% 

- FY2019: 73.4% 

- FY2020: 74.4% 

- FY2021: 77.2% 

- FY2022: 79.9% 

- FY2023: 80.5% 

- FY2024: 61.6% 

- FY2025: 58.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in health information services; annual sales are USD 79.2 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000102345925000060/simu-20250831.htm (filed 2025-12-01); FY2025: revenue 79179000; grossProfit 46221000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); SLP.US: Simulations Plus, Inc. develops drug discovery and development software for modeling and simulation, and prediction of molecular properties utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning based technology worldwide. It operates through Software and Services segments. The company offers GastroPlus, which predicts absorption, biopharmaceutics, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics in humans and animals; and DDDPlus and MembranePlus simulation products. It also provides products based on mechanistic and mathematical models, such as DILIsym, NAFLDsym, ILDsym, IPFsym, RENAsym, MITOsym, OBESITYsym, and Thales products. In addition, the company offers Absorption, Distribution, Metabolism, Excretion, and Toxicity (ADMET) predictor for chemistry-based computer program that takes molecular structures as inputs and predicts their properties; and MedChem Designer, as well as MonolixSuite products for modeling and simulation that allows for population analyses, rapid clinical trial data analyses, and regulatory submissions. Further, it provides clinical-pharmacology-based consulting services, which includes population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, exposure-response analyses, clinical trial simulations, data programming, and technical writing services in support of regulatory submissions; and early drug discovery services. Additionally, the company offers creative and insightful consulting services to support its quantitative systems pharmacology and other modeling systems. The company serves pharmaceutical, biotechnology, agrochemical, cosmetics, and food industry companies, as well as academic and regulatory agencies. Simulations Plus, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 58.4% to 80.5% during 2023–25; it earns 32.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 80.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 61.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000102345925000060/simu-20250831.htm (filed 2025-12-01); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 58.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.3821873541346136],[2018,0.5034373204747414],[2019,0.5459409102657734],[2020,0.33930440798471656],[2021,0.3252088499344017],[2022,0.3198909719993764],[2023,0.2026881250736382],[2024,0.0732780271066474],[2025,-1.132306117899771]]; median 0.3252088499344017. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 9 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 71369; owner earnings 3771592. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 1559672; owner earnings 6363003. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 2328720; owner earnings 9327396. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1955741; owner earnings 9377259. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 2584568; owner earnings 9709432. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2021: growth capex 129949.35694878921; upkeep 4446050.643051211; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 8925949.35694879. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.014558603432768139.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2022: growth capex 236936.80440489436; upkeep 3733063.1955951056; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 12323936.804404894. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.01922573996973167.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2023: growth capex 204298.47301782062; upkeep 4068701.5269821794; cash acquisitions 8223000; owner earnings 9732298.473017821. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.865910400958414.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 566000; cash acquisitions 98773000; owner earnings 15053000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 6.561682056732877.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); Dividend observations: [[2016,3375566],[2017,3448489],[2018,4161740],[2019,4197055],[2020,4250470],[2021,4811000],[2022,4846000],[2023,4809000],[2024,4796000],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 16.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); SLP.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 16.912 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.3% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2025-12-01); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.09132381246348509. Price 18.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.269622205242577 → FY2025 -2.8466245460424853. Closing-price date 2026-10-07.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $8.40 per share

- 2016-11: $9.45 per share

- 2016-12: $9.65 per share

- 2017-01: $10.00 per share

- 2017-02: $9.65 per share

- 2017-03: $11.75 per share

- 2017-04: $11.70 per share

- 2017-05: $12.20 per share

- 2017-06: $12.35 per share

- 2017-07: $14.80 per share

- 2017-08: $14.50 per share

- 2017-09: $15.50 per share

- 2017-10: $16.30 per share

- 2017-11: $15.55 per share

- 2017-12: $16.10 per share

- 2018-01: $16.15 per share

- 2018-02: $15.55 per share

- 2018-03: $14.75 per share

- 2018-04: $16.45 per share

- 2018-05: $19.20 per share

- 2018-06: $22.25 per share

- 2018-07: $17.75 per share

- 2018-08: $20.85 per share

- 2018-09: $20.20 per share

- 2018-10: $20.21 per share

- 2018-11: $19.82 per share

- 2018-12: $19.90 per share

- 2019-01: $19.26 per share

- 2019-02: $20.51 per share

- 2019-03: $21.11 per share

- 2019-04: $22.53 per share

- 2019-05: $25.07 per share

- 2019-06: $28.56 per share

- 2019-07: $38.82 per share

- 2019-08: $36.11 per share

- 2019-09: $34.70 per share

- 2019-10: $35.41 per share

- 2019-11: $33.42 per share

- 2019-12: $29.07 per share

- 2020-01: $32.58 per share

- 2020-02: $32.56 per share

- 2020-03: $34.92 per share

- 2020-04: $38.05 per share

- 2020-05: $50.67 per share

- 2020-06: $59.82 per share

- 2020-07: $70.40 per share

- 2020-08: $59.58 per share

- 2020-09: $75.36 per share

- 2020-10: $64.82 per share

- 2020-11: $55.97 per share

- 2020-12: $71.92 per share

- 2021-01: $79.14 per share

- 2021-02: $71.72 per share

- 2021-03: $63.24 per share

- 2021-04: $63.14 per share

- 2021-05: $52.78 per share

- 2021-06: $54.91 per share

- 2021-07: $47.19 per share

- 2021-08: $44.30 per share

- 2021-09: $39.50 per share

- 2021-10: $50.50 per share

- 2021-11: $46.97 per share

- 2021-12: $47.30 per share

- 2022-01: $42.52 per share

- 2022-02: $39.39 per share

- 2022-03: $50.98 per share

- 2022-04: $46.66 per share

- 2022-05: $47.48 per share

- 2022-06: $49.33 per share

- 2022-07: $64.15 per share

- 2022-08: $60.05 per share

- 2022-09: $48.54 per share

- 2022-10: $41.50 per share

- 2022-11: $40.59 per share

- 2022-12: $36.57 per share

- 2023-01: $41.14 per share

- 2023-02: $38.04 per share

- 2023-03: $43.94 per share

- 2023-04: $41.75 per share

- 2023-05: $44.19 per share

- 2023-06: $43.33 per share

- 2023-07: $49.80 per share

- 2023-08: $44.49 per share

- 2023-09: $41.70 per share

- 2023-10: $35.27 per share

- 2023-11: $39.20 per share

- 2023-12: $44.75 per share

- 2024-01: $37.90 per share

- 2024-02: $41.50 per share

- 2024-03: $41.15 per share

- 2024-04: $45.35 per share

- 2024-05: $48.24 per share

- 2024-06: $48.62 per share

- 2024-07: $40.84 per share

- 2024-08: $36.25 per share

- 2024-09: $32.02 per share

- 2024-10: $27.22 per share

- 2024-11: $31.77 per share

- 2024-12: $27.89 per share

- 2025-01: $34.32 per share

- 2025-02: $28.98 per share

- 2025-03: $24.52 per share

- 2025-04: $34.35 per share

- 2025-05: $31.85 per share

- 2025-06: $17.45 per share

- 2025-07: $13.02 per share

- 2025-08: $14.17 per share

- 2025-09: $15.07 per share

- 2025-10: $17.18 per share

- 2025-11: $17.00 per share

- 2025-12: $18.23 per share

- 2026-01: $16.89 per share

- 2026-02: $12.23 per share

- 2026-03: $11.82 per share

- 2026-04: $14.17 per share

- 2026-05: $17.11 per share

- 2026-06: $18.31 per share

- 2026-07: $18.23 per share

- 2026-08: $18.40 per share

- 2026-09: $18.43 per share

- 2026-10: $18.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $3.99 per share, central $5.50 per share, high $6.38 per share

- FY2017: low $5.25 per share, central $7.51 per share, high $8.77 per share

- FY2018: low $6.54 per share, central $9.32 per share, high $10.86 per share

- FY2019: low $7.80 per share, central $11.10 per share, high $12.94 per share

- FY2020: low $14.25 per share, central $17.70 per share, high $19.70 per share

- FY2021: low $13.94 per share, central $17.38 per share, high $19.39 per share

- FY2022: low $14.37 per share, central $17.91 per share, high $19.97 per share

- FY2023: low $14.63 per share, central $18.51 per share, high $20.77 per share

- FY2024: low $11.01 per share, central $15.33 per share, high $17.84 per share

- FY2025: low $11.82 per share, central $16.23 per share, high $18.79 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1023459/000102345925000060/simu-20250831.htm); period 2025-08-31, filed 2025-12-01.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 1,070,582 SLP shares; USD 19,603,000 reported position value; 0.03% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.

# SLP — Simulations Plus Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 19,603,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 18.31 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SLP

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 19,603,000 | <0.1% | add +44.27% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2025 Q3: USD 345,030 · 1 holder · USD 15.08
- 2025 Q4: USD 8,333,936 · 1 holder · USD 18.23
- 2026 Q1: USD 8,771,256 · 1 holder · USD 11.82
- 2026 Q2: USD 19,603,000 · 1 holder · USD 18.31