# Saipem (SPM.MI)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/SPM.MI

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:00.195Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 4.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-14.

Estimated value: low EUR 0.88 per share, central EUR 0.91 per share, high EUR 0.95 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 0.91 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:00.195Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 3.5% at the stated quote. About 3.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; IT 10-year bond 4.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 2.65×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: -0.11×

- FY2021: -0.34×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -54.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -4.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: -54.0%

- FY2021: -89.3%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: 11.0%

- FY2024: 13.7%

- FY2025: 12.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR -1.4B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR -1.9B

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: EUR -2.3B

- FY2022: EUR -290M

- FY2023: EUR 33M

- FY2024: EUR 478M

- FY2025: EUR 669M

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- Per-share earnings: -1.15 to 0.16 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 14.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 14.5%

- Per-share value change: EUR 1.31

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR -1.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.16

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.60

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- ROIC, last three-year median: 12.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: EUR 0.01

- FY2020: EUR -1.15

- FY2021: EUR -6.26

- FY2022: EUR -0.22

- FY2023: EUR 0.09

- FY2024: EUR 0.16

- FY2025: EUR 0.16

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 4.85×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2020: -11.2%

- FY2021: -22.2%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: -3.2%

- FY2024: -5.2%

- FY2025: -8.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 36.2% a year for ten years · sales +6.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.544Z; price observation 2026-10-14.

Price needs cash profits to grow 36.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +6.6%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PHV8MBDHWB8X12/2022-12-31/ESEF/IT/0/Saipem_2022/reports/Saipem.xhtml; observed 2023-05-30.

- FY2020: EUR 7.4B 

- FY2021: EUR 6.5B 

- FY2022: EUR 10.0B 

- FY2023: EUR 12B 

- FY2024: EUR 15B 

- FY2025: EUR 16B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 19%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PHV8MBDHWB8X12/2022-12-31/ESEF/IT/0/Saipem_2022/reports/Saipem.xhtml; observed 2023-05-30.

- FY2022: 17.1% 

- FY2023: 18.4% 

- FY2024: 18.6% 

- FY2025: 19.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas equipment & services; annual sales are EUR 15.5 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2025: revenue 15504000000; grossProfit 2940000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 18.4% to 19% during 2023–25; it earns 7.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-05-30); 7-year return on capital observations [[2020,-0.540088996763754],[2021,-0.8934811416921509],[2022,0.03244761106454317],[2023,0.1102110022607385],[2024,0.13737113402061857],[2025,0.12602413019079686]]; median 0.07132930666264084. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 3 of 4 years; bought back EUR 40 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2023: growth capex 22000000; upkeep 460000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 33000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6666666666666666.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 337000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 477600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 364000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 669200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-05-30); Dividend observations: [[2020,69000000],[2021,26000000],[2022,0],[2025,333000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/SPEA.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2023-05-30); FY2025: cash repurchases 40000000 EUR.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 36.2% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2023-05-30); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.5217916391324848. Price 4.625999927520752; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-14.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-11: EUR 10.65 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 13.43 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 11.86 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 10.82 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 10.68 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 9.93 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 9.06 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 8.12 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 8.69 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 7.83 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 9.16 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 9.06 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 8.46 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 9.55 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 9.47 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 8.46 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 7.99 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 7.97 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 9.16 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 9.90 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 11.22 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 11.55 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 13.32 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 12.14 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 9.70 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 8.20 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 10.42 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 11.46 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 11.84 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 11.34 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 9.62 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 10.98 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 11.28 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 10.85 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 10.42 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 10.19 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 10.42 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 10.93 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 9.41 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 8.57 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 5.62 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 5.88 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 5.36 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 5.57 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 4.50 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 4.51 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 3.68 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 3.78 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 5.13 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 5.53 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 5.44 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 5.82 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 5.83 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 4.82 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 5.17 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 5.12 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 4.86 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 5.04 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 5.34 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 4.76 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 4.42 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 4.63 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 3.39 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 2.65 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 2.88 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 2.72 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 2.96 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 2.56 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 0.81 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 0.70 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 0.64 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 0.98 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 1.02 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 1.13 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 1.40 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 1.52 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 1.38 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 1.39 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 1.18 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 1.27 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 1.46 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 1.49 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 1.45 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 1.44 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 1.47 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 1.47 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 1.33 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 1.68 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 2.26 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 2.16 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 2.29 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 2.39 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 2.20 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 2.03 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 1.98 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 2.18 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 2.44 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 2.51 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 2.37 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 2.20 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 2.14 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 2.04 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 2.18 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 2.33 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 2.34 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 2.40 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 2.46 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 2.26 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 2.35 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 2.42 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 3.11 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 3.57 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 3.91 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 4.61 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 4.12 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 4.41 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 4.19 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 4.57 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 4.35 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 4.41 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2025: low EUR 0.88 per share, central EUR 0.91 per share, high EUR 0.95 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/549300PHV8MBDHWB8X12/2022-12-31/ESEF/IT/0/Saipem_2022/reports/Saipem.xhtml); period 2022-12-31, filed 2023-05-30.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations