# Ternium (TX.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TX

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:37.120Z. Financial observations: FY2003–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $56.88 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $34.73 per share, central $38.28 per share, high $43.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value $38.28 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:37.120Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.2% at the stated quote. About 7.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.15×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.07×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 8.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 15.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 13.8%

- FY2017: 15.3%

- FY2018: 22.9%

- FY2019: 8.5%

- FY2020: 11.1%

- FY2021: 37.2%

- FY2022: 23.7%

- FY2023: 17.4%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 4.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.57×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.8B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.6B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 28.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.02×

- FY2022: 1.02×

- FY2023: 0.75×

- FY2024: 21.54×

- FY2025: -3.03×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.3% vs 8.9%

- Per-share earnings: 3.03 to 2.17 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: $2.8B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -4.1%

- Per-share value change: -$0.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.03

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.17

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $340M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $11B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $3.03

- FY2017: $4.51

- FY2018: $7.67

- FY2019: $2.87

- FY2020: $3.97

- FY2021: $19.49

- FY2022: $9.00

- FY2023: $3.44

- FY2024: -$0.27

- FY2025: $2.17

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.73×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.44×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.1%

- FY2017: 4.1%

- FY2018: -1.9%

- FY2019: -8.4%

- FY2020: -7.6%

- FY2021: 6.7%

- FY2022: -5.6%

- FY2023: -7.5%

- FY2024: -8.5%

- FY2025: -8.0%

## Holders

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years · "EBITDA: Sequential increase driven by improved margins and slightly higher shipments." (finance.yahoo.com, May 2025) · sales +2.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:44.600Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.1% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +2.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342874/000134287426000020/tx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2017: $9.7B 

- FY2018: $11B 

- FY2019: $10B 

- FY2020: $8.7B 

- FY2021: $16B 

- FY2022: $16B 

- FY2023: $18B 

- FY2024: $18B 

- FY2025: $16B 

- FY2026: $16B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 15%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342874/000134287426000020/tx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-31.

- FY2016: 25.5% 

- FY2017: 23.7% 

- FY2018: 25.9% 

- FY2019: 17.1% 

- FY2020: 18.7% 

- FY2021: 38.5% 

- FY2022: 23.9% 

- FY2023: 29.8% 

- FY2024: 16.4% 

- FY2025: 15.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in steel; annual sales are USD 15.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342874/000134287426000020/tx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: revenue 15609094000; grossProfit 2340712000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TX.US: Ternium S.A., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes steel products in Mexico, Southern Region, Brazil, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Steel and Mining. The Steel segment offers slabs, heavy plates, hot and cold rolled products, coated products, stamped steel parts for the automotive industry, roll-formed and tubular products, billets, bars, and other products, including sales of energy. Its Mining segment sells iron ore and pellets. It also provides medical and social; scrap; and engineering and other services. In addition, the company engages in the exploration, exploitation, and pelletizing of iron ore. Ternium S.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ternium S.A. is a subsidiary of Techint Holdings S.à r.l.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 15% to 29.8% during 2023–25; it earns 14.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 29.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342874/000134287426000020/tx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-31); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 15%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.13756607381359098],[2017,0.15270157478298316],[2018,0.22850669602430276],[2019,0.08509275043071846],[2020,0.11090052529165768],[2021,0.3716829291384176],[2022,0.23734849393736504],[2023,0.174455633397824],[2024,0.08876076930194429],[2025,0.04262840930177901]]; median 0.14513382429828708. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 435500000; owner earnings 566990000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 409402000; owner earnings 951116000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 520250000; owner earnings 1575696000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1052252000; owner earnings 173129000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 560013000; owner earnings 849506000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 523610000; owner earnings 3893248000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 580553000; cash acquisitions 4216000; owner earnings 1797866099.1514573. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.002345002223463602.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); FY2023: growth capex 635990305.3316321; upkeep 824686694.6683679; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 509048305.33163214. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.2493712260122356.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Dividend observations: [[2016,176700000],[2017,196308000],[2018,215938000],[2019,235569000],[2020,569292000],[2021,569292000],[2022,530031000],[2023,569292000],[2024,608554000],[2025,530030999]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); TX.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-31); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08845756545561989. Price 56.88; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.12596551230542663 → FY2025 -6.557634490485899. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $23.91 per share

- 2016-11: $24.49 per share

- 2016-12: $24.15 per share

- 2017-01: $22.86 per share

- 2017-02: $26.52 per share

- 2017-03: $26.12 per share

- 2017-04: $25.32 per share

- 2017-05: $26.02 per share

- 2017-06: $28.09 per share

- 2017-07: $30.60 per share

- 2017-08: $30.43 per share

- 2017-09: $30.93 per share

- 2017-10: $31.01 per share

- 2017-11: $28.56 per share

- 2017-12: $31.59 per share

- 2018-01: $34.11 per share

- 2018-02: $34.58 per share

- 2018-03: $32.49 per share

- 2018-04: $39.67 per share

- 2018-05: $35.72 per share

- 2018-06: $34.82 per share

- 2018-07: $36.25 per share

- 2018-08: $28.20 per share

- 2018-09: $30.29 per share

- 2018-10: $31.84 per share

- 2018-11: $29.02 per share

- 2018-12: $27.10 per share

- 2019-01: $30.42 per share

- 2019-02: $28.85 per share

- 2019-03: $27.22 per share

- 2019-04: $24.65 per share

- 2019-05: $24.06 per share

- 2019-06: $22.43 per share

- 2019-07: $21.13 per share

- 2019-08: $17.66 per share

- 2019-09: $19.19 per share

- 2019-10: $19.99 per share

- 2019-11: $21.56 per share

- 2019-12: $22.00 per share

- 2020-01: $20.93 per share

- 2020-02: $17.70 per share

- 2020-03: $11.90 per share

- 2020-04: $13.59 per share

- 2020-05: $15.89 per share

- 2020-06: $15.17 per share

- 2020-07: $14.41 per share

- 2020-08: $17.88 per share

- 2020-09: $18.83 per share

- 2020-10: $20.02 per share

- 2020-11: $27.71 per share

- 2020-12: $29.08 per share

- 2021-01: $26.45 per share

- 2021-02: $30.71 per share

- 2021-03: $38.84 per share

- 2021-04: $39.09 per share

- 2021-05: $36.61 per share

- 2021-06: $38.46 per share

- 2021-07: $48.64 per share

- 2021-08: $54.38 per share

- 2021-09: $42.30 per share

- 2021-10: $46.33 per share

- 2021-11: $38.19 per share

- 2021-12: $43.52 per share

- 2022-01: $40.28 per share

- 2022-02: $39.28 per share

- 2022-03: $45.65 per share

- 2022-04: $42.90 per share

- 2022-05: $43.97 per share

- 2022-06: $36.09 per share

- 2022-07: $35.43 per share

- 2022-08: $30.81 per share

- 2022-09: $27.39 per share

- 2022-10: $28.79 per share

- 2022-11: $31.49 per share

- 2022-12: $30.56 per share

- 2023-01: $40.35 per share

- 2023-02: $42.61 per share

- 2023-03: $41.26 per share

- 2023-04: $43.35 per share

- 2023-05: $37.31 per share

- 2023-06: $39.65 per share

- 2023-07: $44.65 per share

- 2023-08: $41.78 per share

- 2023-09: $39.90 per share

- 2023-10: $37.49 per share

- 2023-11: $39.53 per share

- 2023-12: $42.47 per share

- 2024-01: $38.66 per share

- 2024-02: $40.54 per share

- 2024-03: $41.62 per share

- 2024-04: $42.10 per share

- 2024-05: $43.18 per share

- 2024-06: $37.55 per share

- 2024-07: $34.68 per share

- 2024-08: $33.67 per share

- 2024-09: $36.91 per share

- 2024-10: $34.11 per share

- 2024-11: $33.17 per share

- 2024-12: $29.08 per share

- 2025-01: $30.00 per share

- 2025-02: $28.89 per share

- 2025-03: $31.16 per share

- 2025-04: $28.86 per share

- 2025-05: $27.38 per share

- 2025-06: $30.10 per share

- 2025-07: $32.58 per share

- 2025-08: $33.16 per share

- 2025-09: $34.73 per share

- 2025-10: $36.03 per share

- 2025-11: $36.83 per share

- 2025-12: $38.19 per share

- 2026-01: $41.84 per share

- 2026-02: $43.47 per share

- 2026-03: $40.15 per share

- 2026-04: $43.93 per share

- 2026-05: $48.25 per share

- 2026-06: $42.70 per share

- 2026-07: $49.24 per share

- 2026-08: $54.82 per share

- 2026-09: $54.30 per share

- 2026-10: $56.88 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $29.41 per share, central $33.27 per share, high $38.41 per share

- FY2018: low $54.79 per share, central $68.04 per share, high $79.33 per share

- FY2019: low $47.23 per share, central $53.38 per share, high $61.55 per share

- FY2020: low $53.29 per share, central $59.81 per share, high $68.49 per share

- FY2021: low $113.76 per share, central $148.03 per share, high $171.38 per share

- FY2022: low $133.77 per share, central $178.81 per share, high $207.30 per share

- FY2023: low $127.30 per share, central $170.11 per share, high $197.21 per share

- FY2024: low $111.32 per share, central $127.98 per share, high $146.69 per share

- FY2025: low $35.74 per share, central $39.21 per share, high $43.82 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1342874/000134287426000020/tx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-31.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Howard Marks](https://gigainvestors.com/oc): 572,324 TX shares; USD 24,438,000 reported position value; 0.65% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# TX — Ternium S.A.

Held by 1 investor · USD 24,438,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 42.70 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/TX

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Howard Marks (https://gigainvestors.com/oc) | USD 24,438,000 | 0.7% | reduce -1.82% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2008 Q4: USD 15,245,550 · 1 holder · USD 8.57
- 2009 Q1: USD 12,220,016 · 1 holder · USD 6.85
- 2009 Q2: USD 30,785,695 · 1 holder · USD 17.26
- 2009 Q3: USD 29,960,405 · 1 holder · USD 26.60
- 2009 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2010 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2011 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2012 Q4: USD 609,945 · 1 holder · USD 23.55
- 2013 Q1: USD 609,945 · 1 holder · USD 23.55
- 2013 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2013 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2013 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2014 Q4: USD 2,137,968 · 1 holder · USD 17.64
- 2015 Q1: USD 2,190,084 · 1 holder · USD 18.07
- 2015 Q2: USD 1,791,585 · 1 holder · USD 17.31
- 2015 Q3: USD 1,272,015 · 1 holder · USD 12.29
- 2015 Q4: USD 1,286,505 · 1 holder · USD 12.43
- 2016 Q1: USD 1,286,505 · 1 holder · USD 12.43
- 2016 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2016 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2017 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2018 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2019 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2020 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2021 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q2: USD 16,610,386 · 1 holder · USD 36.09
- 2022 Q3: USD 12,214,543 · 1 holder · USD 27.39
- 2022 Q4: USD 14,357,057 · 1 holder · USD 30.56
- 2023 Q1: USD 20,191,695 · 1 holder · USD 41.26
- 2023 Q2: USD 39,646,947 · 1 holder · USD 39.65
- 2023 Q3: USD 35,596,985 · 1 holder · USD 39.90
- 2023 Q4: USD 40,696,325 · 1 holder · USD 42.47
- 2024 Q1: USD 40,593,526 · 1 holder · USD 41.62
- 2024 Q2: USD 35,084,467 · 1 holder · USD 37.55
- 2024 Q3: USD 31,185,591 · 1 holder · USD 36.91
- 2024 Q4: USD 24,087,226 · 1 holder · USD 29.08
- 2025 Q1: USD 25,320,896 · 1 holder · USD 31.16
- 2025 Q2: USD 27,683,241 · 1 holder · USD 30.10
- 2025 Q3: USD 31,170,488 · 1 holder · USD 34.73
- 2025 Q4: USD 25,150,597 · 1 holder · USD 38.19
- 2026 Q1: USD 23,404,399 · 1 holder · USD 40.15
- 2026 Q2: USD 24,438,000 · 1 holder · USD 42.70