# Universal Music Group N.V. (UMG.AS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/UMG.AS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:18.631Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 15.60 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 9.09 per share, central EUR 10.32 per share, high EUR 11.96 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 10.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:18.631Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.6% at the stated quote. About 7.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.08×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.15×

- FY2019: 0.15×

- FY2020: 0.17×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.15×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 6.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 35.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 25.9%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 45.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 25.5%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 36.6%

- FY2019: 51.1%

- FY2020: 39.3%

- FY2021: 34.7%

- FY2022: 46.4%

- FY2023: 31.1%

- FY2024: 24.7%

- FY2025: 25.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.07×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 7.0B

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 6.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.7 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.13×

- FY2022: 1.25×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 1.17×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 39.3% vs 25.9%

- Per-share earnings: 0.51 to 0.84 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -7.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -7.5%

- Per-share value growth: 10.6%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.33

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.51

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.84

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 39.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 25.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: EUR 0.49

- FY2019: EUR 0.54

- FY2020: EUR 0.51

- FY2021: EUR 0.49

- FY2022: EUR 0.43

- FY2023: EUR 0.68

- FY2024: EUR 1.12

- FY2025: EUR 0.84

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.09×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.55×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 1.8%

- FY2019: 3.3%

- FY2020: 11.9%

- FY2021: -2.1%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: -4.8%

- FY2024: 1.9%

- FY2025: -0.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 45% since May 2024 · "Universal Music Logs Slower Subscriptions and Streaming Growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Oct 2025) · sales +5.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.052Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.1% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-29: Universal Music first-quarter revenue grows with concerts, vinyl sales ([uk.finance.yahoo.com](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/universal-music-group-first-quarter-155314345.html))

- 2025-08-01: Universal Music Shares Fall on Disappointing Earnings and Cash ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6cce4bd0-d8b0-3373-b923-7235ed0e3504/universal-music-shares-fall.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +5.7%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2018: EUR 6.0B 

- FY2019: EUR 7.2B 

- FY2020: EUR 7.4B 

- FY2021: EUR 8.5B 

- FY2022: EUR 10B 

- FY2023: EUR 11B 

- FY2024: EUR 12B 

- FY2025: EUR 13B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 38.9%; source https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml; observed 2026-04-07.

- FY2018: 48.4% 

- FY2019: 46.7% 

- FY2020: 47.3% 

- FY2021: 45.8% 

- FY2022: 44.4% 

- FY2023: 44.1% 

- FY2024: 43.0% 

- FY2025: 38.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in entertainment; annual sales are EUR 12.5 billion.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: revenue 12507000000; grossProfit 4865000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UMG.AS: Universal Music Group N.V. operates as a music company worldwide. The company operates through Recorded Music, Music Publishing, and Merchandising & Other segments. Its Recorded Music segment discovers and develops recording artists, as well as licenses, markets, promotes, distributes, and sells their music across various formats and platforms; and engages in the live events, sponsorship, film, and television operations. The Music Publishing segment discovers and develops songwriters, as well as owns and administers the copyright for musical compositions used in recordings, public performances, and related uses, such as films and advertisements. Its Merchandising & Other segment produces and sells artist and other branded products through various sales channels, including fashion retail, concert touring, and online, as well as offers brand rights management services. Universal Music Group N.V. was incorporated in 2020 and is headquartered in Hilversum, the Netherlands.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.9% to 44.1% during 2023–25; it earns 35.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43%.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.3658387758538586],[2019,0.5109070034443168],[2020,0.3926318883073309],[2021,0.34712547303540453],[2022,0.464102279865499],[2023,0.31082308152091287],[2024,0.24680533059521137],[2025,0.25852208486189693]]; median 0.35648212444463157. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 44% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.458137347130762],[2022,0.44361702127659575],[2023,0.44112351458408355]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 110000000; owner earnings 913000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 75000000; owner earnings 979800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 66000000; owner earnings 1432000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 61000000; owner earnings 1001800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 93000000; owner earnings 981400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 299000000; owner earnings 1260000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); FY2024: growth capex 40000000; upkeep 409000000; owner earnings 1977800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.020224491859642025.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-04-07); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 70000000; owner earnings 1796800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Dividend observations: [[2018,981000000],[2019,1002000000],[2020,283000000],[2021,785000000],[2022,798000000],[2023,929000000],[2024,933000000],[2025,953000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 42.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); UMG.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 42.326 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.1% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-07); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07482164872011043. Price 15.595; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2021-09: EUR 23.12 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 25.12 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 25.31 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 24.78 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 21.82 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 20.33 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 24.20 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 22.29 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 20.89 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 19.13 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 22.06 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 19.81 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 19.33 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 19.85 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 22.50 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 22.51 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 23.47 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 22.35 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 23.31 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 19.81 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 18.50 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 20.35 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 23.33 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 22.89 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 24.73 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 23.10 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 24.24 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 25.81 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 27.37 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 27.87 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 27.88 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 27.70 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 28.58 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 27.78 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 21.99 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 23.63 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 23.50 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 23.08 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 22.81 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 24.72 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 26.94 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 26.85 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 25.43 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 25.85 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 28.16 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 27.48 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 25.38 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 24.14 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 24.56 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 23.27 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 22.08 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 22.23 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 20.68 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 19.11 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 16.64 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 17.82 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 19.50 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 18.33 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 14.44 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 14.65 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 14.27 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 15.36 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2022: low EUR 8.63 per share, central EUR 9.80 per share, high EUR 11.36 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 7.84 per share, central EUR 8.90 per share, high EUR 10.31 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 8.40 per share, central EUR 9.53 per share, high EUR 11.04 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 8.79 per share, central EUR 10.00 per share, high EUR 11.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:04.586Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original ESEF filing](https://filings.xbrl.org/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/724500GJBUL3D9TW9Y18-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-07.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations