# Vault Minerals (VAU.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VAU.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2026.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 5.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 3.87 per share, central AUD 4.74 per share, high AUD 5.41 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 4.74 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 3.62×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -1.19×

- FY2018: -0.34×

- FY2019: -0.02×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: -0.02×

- FY2022: -0.39×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.19×

- FY2026: 0.33×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 0.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -25.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 22.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -4.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -95.5%

- FY2018: -25.7%

- FY2019: -3.1%

- FY2020: 21.5%

- FY2021: -1.3%

- FY2022: -11.7%

- FY2023: 1.8%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: 16.2%

- FY2026: 30.9%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 438M

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 473M

- Return on incremental invested capital: 171.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -11.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 2.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 6.44×

- FY2023: 2.90×

- FY2024: -15.59×

- FY2025: 1.21×

- FY2026: 0.99×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -25.7% vs 16.2%

- Per-share earnings: -0.06 to 0.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 24.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 23.8%

- Market cap gain: AUD 4.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 349M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 24.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 23.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value change: AUD 0.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.06

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 36M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 312M

- ROIC, first three-year median: -25.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: AUD -0.68

- FY2018: AUD -0.06

- FY2019: AUD -0.02

- FY2020: AUD 0.01

- FY2021: AUD -0.12

- FY2022: AUD -0.07

- FY2023: AUD -0.02

- FY2024: AUD -0.01

- FY2025: AUD 0.22

- FY2026: AUD 0.26

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -22.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.04×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.19×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -138.2%

- FY2018: -17.7%

- FY2019: -14.4%

- FY2020: -13.3%

- FY2021: -16.6%

- FY2022: -4.5%

- FY2023: -8.3%

- FY2024: -9.8%

- FY2025: -12.4%

- FY2026: -22.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.6% a year for ten years · "Vault Minerals (ASX:VAU) Reports Surge In Sales To A$1.43 Billion" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2025) · sales +34.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:09.719Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +34.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: AUD 69M 

- FY2018: AUD 77M 

- FY2019: AUD 156M 

- FY2020: AUD 216M 

- FY2021: AUD 190M 

- FY2022: AUD 163M 

- FY2023: AUD 423M 

- FY2024: AUD 620M 

- FY2025: AUD 1.4B 

- FY2026: AUD 1.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 35.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 12.6% 

- FY2019: 22.7% 

- FY2020: 40.1% 

- FY2021: 22.0% 

- FY2023: 26.2% 

- FY2024: 14.6% 

- FY2025: 22.3% 

- FY2026: 35.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in gold; annual sales are AUD 1.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2026: revenue 1926607000; grossProfit 690909000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 14.6% to 35.9% during 2024–26; it earns 0.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 35.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,-0.9549130665294553],[2018,-0.25706866033584164],[2019,-0.03064428967601943],[2020,0.21492458011247156],[2021,-0.013406014310578225],[2022,-0.11749906542056075],[2023,0.01848354607906975],[2024,0.03219488811957154],[2025,0.16241292681774536],[2026,0.3086052925300001]]; median 0.0025387658842457627. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 9 years; bought back AUD 53.9 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2020: growth capex 15746000; upkeep 32984000; owner earnings 4459000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.5312850414891233.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 24233000; owner earnings 84773600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 300805000; owner earnings 286636000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 339458000; owner earnings 276014600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); Dividend observations: [[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0],[2026,72882000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); FY2026: cash repurchases 53878000 AUD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VAU.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.978 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 4.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:38:05.200Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08160800092880127. Price 5.75; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 0.17555763532339547 → FY2026 0.26172952178775666. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 0.73 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 0.63 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 0.55 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 0.45 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 0.42 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 0.36 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 0.20 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 0.25 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 0.21 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 0.23 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 0.29 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 0.28 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 0.32 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 0.35 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 0.37 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 0.45 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 0.45 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 0.41 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 0.51 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 0.42 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 0.40 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 0.39 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 0.34 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 0.44 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 0.56 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 0.76 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 0.79 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 0.92 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 0.66 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 0.89 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 1.49 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 2.09 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 1.74 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 1.77 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 2.09 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 2.00 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 1.27 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 1.20 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 1.71 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 1.27 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 1.58 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 1.93 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 1.90 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 1.74 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 1.58 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 1.65 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 1.14 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 1.01 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 1.20 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 1.07 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 1.27 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 1.69 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 1.76 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 1.88 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 1.76 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 1.98 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 2.44 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 2.66 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 2.50 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 1.63 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 1.72 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 1.66 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 1.04 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 1.33 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 1.36 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 0.85 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 0.97 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 1.11 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 0.97 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 1.23 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 1.17 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 1.59 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 1.72 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 2.08 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 2.28 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 2.01 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 2.05 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 2.47 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 2.34 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 2.54 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 2.21 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 2.11 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 2.28 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 2.54 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 2.63 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 2.89 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 2.93 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 2.73 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 2.37 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 3.48 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 4.29 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 4.74 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 5.46 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 5.88 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 5.88 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 4.49 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 4.20 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 4.17 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 4.77 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 6.67 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 6.00 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 6.09 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2026: low AUD 3.80 per share, central AUD 4.65 per share, high AUD 5.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:43:43.941Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations