# Valley National Bancorp (VLY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VLY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:32:53.507Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $12.75 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $10.09 per share, central $12.24 per share, high $15.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value $12.24 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:32:53.507Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.8% at the stated quote. About 9.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- Financial history: 10 years

- Profitable years in the last ten: 10

- Required profitable years: 9

- Return on common equity variation (informational): 0.17×

Chart: Net income; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $161M

- FY2017: $152M

- FY2018: $249M

- FY2019: $297M

- FY2020: $378M

- FY2021: $461M

- FY2022: $556M

- FY2023: $482M

- FY2024: $359M

- FY2025: $569M

### moat: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- median return on common equity below threshold

- Bank / P&C ROTE, median of available years: 10.7%

- Required median return: 12.0%

- Return uses tangible common equity: Yes

- Bank ROTE, second-lowest year: 9.6%

- Cost / income, median: 58.2%

- Years with reported combined ratio: 0

Chart: Return on tangible common equity; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.5%

- FY2017: 9.6%

- FY2018: 12.6%

- FY2019: 10.9%

- FY2020: 12.9%

- FY2021: 13.8%

- FY2022: 13.5%

- FY2023: 10.3%

- FY2024: 6.6%

- FY2025: 9.7%

### economics: pass

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- Book value per share + reinvested dividends, annualized return: 12.0%

- Book return interval: 10 years

- Starting book value per share: $5.80

- Ending book value per share: $10.35

Chart: Annual book + dividend return; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 10.8%

- FY2017: 7.5%

- FY2018: 6.0%

- FY2019: 41.4%

- FY2020: -3.9%

- FY2021: 18.9%

- FY2022: 8.8%

- FY2023: 13.7%

- FY2024: 19.2%

- FY2025: 2.8%

### management: fail

- Tangible common book per share

- Parent-total proxy for preferred equity

- ordinary share count growth exceeds 2% annually in both the full and five-year windows

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 9.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 6.8%

- Share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 9.2%

- Five-year share growth excluding flagged crisis recapitalisations: 6.8%

- Flagged crisis recapitalisations: 0

- Book created / earnings retained after dividends and buybacks: 1.14×

- Book value created per share: $4.55

- Earnings retained per share after dividends and buybacks: $4.00

Chart: Shares (first year = 100); fiscal year observations.

- FY2015: 100

- FY2016: 109

- FY2017: 113

- FY2018: 142

- FY2019: 145

- FY2020: 173

- FY2021: 175

- FY2022: 208

- FY2023: 217

- FY2024: 221

- FY2025: 241

### accounting: pass

- Financial accounting warning count: 0

- Deposits, annualized growth: 12.4%

- Known restatement years: 0

- Years loan growth exceeded twice deposit growth: 1

- Years credit losses exceeded peer median: 0

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

The price assumes profits grow 5.5% a year forever · "Additionally, improved fee-based income contributed meaningfully to the overall top-line performance." (finance.yahoo.com, Feb 2026) · net income +58.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:48.456Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

The price assumes profits grow 5.5% a year forever

- 2025-07-24: VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (NASDAQ:VLY) Beats Q2 2025 Revenue and EPS Estimates ([chartmill.com](https://www.chartmill.com/news/VLY/Chartmill-31522-VALLEY-NATIONAL-BANCORP-NASDAQVLY-Beats-Q2-2025-Revenue-and-EPS-Estimates))

- 2025-10-24: Valley National Q3 Earnings Top on Y/Y Revenue Increase, Stock Up 4.2% ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/valley-national-q3-earnings-top-145300309.html))

- 2026-01-30: VLY Q4 Deep Dive: Core Deposit Growth and Balance Sheet Strength Drive Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vly-q4-deep-dive-core-053251187.html))

- 2026-04-25: VLY Q1 Deep Dive: Deposit Growth and Technology Investments Support Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/vly-q1-deep-dive-deposit-010923086.html))

### Net income · FY2025

net income +58.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/714310/000071431026000017/vly-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $161M 

- FY2017: $152M 

- FY2018: $249M 

- FY2019: $297M 

- FY2020: $378M 

- FY2021: $461M 

- FY2022: $556M 

- FY2023: $482M 

- FY2024: $359M 

- FY2025: $569M 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in regional banking; annual sales are USD 2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/714310/000071431026000017/vly-20251231.htm#000071431026000017 (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 2025770000.

### Why customers stay

It earns 10.7% on shareholders’ money, excluding intangible assets.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on tangible equity observations [[2016,0.1052394822958655],[2017,0.09586563794935642],[2018,0.12568288339999636],[2019,0.10946722670498507],[2020,0.12900259358301547],[2021,0.13786386230594433],[2022,0.13472554130354092],[2023,0.10324554742125851],[2024,0.06600460135392357],[2025,0.0974671143857358]]; median 0.10735335450042528. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 72.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,119001000],[2017,122158000],[2018,154716000],[2019,159225000],[2020,190653000],[2021,192355000],[2022,219145000],[2023,239749000],[2024,249597000],[2025,277866000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/714310/000071431026000017/vly-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 72802000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VLY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.018 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes profits grow 5.5% a year forever.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Price 12.75; FX 1; original perpetual distributable cash 0.5744755945717729; discount 0.1; growth 0.05494309062182174. Same book-value model and 4× ceiling; no ten-year operating fade applies. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $9.86 per share

- 2016-11: $11.34 per share

- 2016-12: $11.64 per share

- 2017-01: $12.11 per share

- 2017-02: $12.37 per share

- 2017-03: $11.80 per share

- 2017-04: $11.76 per share

- 2017-05: $11.28 per share

- 2017-06: $11.81 per share

- 2017-07: $11.88 per share

- 2017-08: $11.19 per share

- 2017-09: $12.05 per share

- 2017-10: $11.50 per share

- 2017-11: $11.90 per share

- 2017-12: $11.22 per share

- 2018-01: $12.57 per share

- 2018-02: $12.47 per share

- 2018-03: $12.46 per share

- 2018-04: $12.55 per share

- 2018-05: $12.71 per share

- 2018-06: $12.16 per share

- 2018-07: $11.65 per share

- 2018-08: $12.05 per share

- 2018-09: $11.25 per share

- 2018-10: $9.98 per share

- 2018-11: $10.82 per share

- 2018-12: $8.88 per share

- 2019-01: $10.11 per share

- 2019-02: $10.56 per share

- 2019-03: $9.58 per share

- 2019-04: $10.48 per share

- 2019-05: $9.82 per share

- 2019-06: $10.78 per share

- 2019-07: $11.16 per share

- 2019-08: $10.51 per share

- 2019-09: $10.87 per share

- 2019-10: $11.58 per share

- 2019-11: $11.58 per share

- 2019-12: $11.45 per share

- 2020-01: $10.53 per share

- 2020-02: $9.30 per share

- 2020-03: $7.31 per share

- 2020-04: $8.36 per share

- 2020-05: $7.98 per share

- 2020-06: $7.82 per share

- 2020-07: $7.47 per share

- 2020-08: $7.51 per share

- 2020-09: $6.85 per share

- 2020-10: $7.64 per share

- 2020-11: $9.14 per share

- 2020-12: $9.75 per share

- 2021-01: $10.21 per share

- 2021-02: $12.25 per share

- 2021-03: $13.74 per share

- 2021-04: $13.77 per share

- 2021-05: $14.32 per share

- 2021-06: $13.43 per share

- 2021-07: $12.89 per share

- 2021-08: $13.04 per share

- 2021-09: $13.31 per share

- 2021-10: $13.26 per share

- 2021-11: $13.44 per share

- 2021-12: $13.75 per share

- 2022-01: $13.92 per share

- 2022-02: $13.97 per share

- 2022-03: $13.02 per share

- 2022-04: $11.98 per share

- 2022-05: $12.71 per share

- 2022-06: $10.41 per share

- 2022-07: $11.69 per share

- 2022-08: $11.62 per share

- 2022-09: $10.80 per share

- 2022-10: $11.87 per share

- 2022-11: $12.66 per share

- 2022-12: $11.31 per share

- 2023-01: $11.88 per share

- 2023-02: $11.58 per share

- 2023-03: $9.24 per share

- 2023-04: $9.38 per share

- 2023-05: $7.38 per share

- 2023-06: $7.75 per share

- 2023-07: $10.26 per share

- 2023-08: $9.18 per share

- 2023-09: $8.56 per share

- 2023-10: $7.78 per share

- 2023-11: $9.10 per share

- 2023-12: $10.86 per share

- 2024-01: $9.62 per share

- 2024-02: $8.19 per share

- 2024-03: $7.96 per share

- 2024-04: $7.01 per share

- 2024-05: $7.13 per share

- 2024-06: $6.98 per share

- 2024-07: $8.40 per share

- 2024-08: $8.68 per share

- 2024-09: $9.06 per share

- 2024-10: $9.47 per share

- 2024-11: $10.64 per share

- 2024-12: $9.06 per share

- 2025-01: $10.28 per share

- 2025-02: $9.84 per share

- 2025-03: $8.89 per share

- 2025-04: $8.60 per share

- 2025-05: $8.78 per share

- 2025-06: $8.93 per share

- 2025-07: $9.27 per share

- 2025-08: $10.46 per share

- 2025-09: $10.60 per share

- 2025-10: $10.87 per share

- 2025-11: $11.32 per share

- 2025-12: $11.68 per share

- 2026-01: $12.46 per share

- 2026-02: $12.61 per share

- 2026-03: $12.28 per share

- 2026-04: $13.57 per share

- 2026-05: $13.77 per share

- 2026-06: $14.65 per share

- 2026-07: $14.29 per share

- 2026-08: $13.64 per share

- 2026-09: $12.62 per share

- 2026-10: $12.75 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $7.38 per share, central $8.24 per share, high $9.33 per share

- FY2017: low $6.97 per share, central $7.77 per share, high $8.78 per share

- FY2018: low $7.34 per share, central $8.20 per share, high $9.29 per share

- FY2019: low $8.86 per share, central $9.97 per share, high $11.41 per share

- FY2020: low $8.00 per share, central $9.11 per share, high $10.56 per share

- FY2021: low $8.96 per share, central $10.25 per share, high $11.97 per share

- FY2022: low $9.23 per share, central $10.75 per share, high $12.88 per share

- FY2023: low $8.64 per share, central $10.28 per share, high $12.70 per share

- FY2024: low $9.88 per share, central $11.76 per share, high $14.53 per share

- FY2025: low $9.69 per share, central $11.75 per share, high $14.93 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/714310/000071431026000017/vly-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): 1,118,000 VLY shares; USD 16,379,000 reported position value; 0.03% of portfolio; add; quarter 2026 Q2.

# VLY — Valley National Bancorp

Held by 1 investor · USD 16,379,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 14.65 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VLY

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Matthew McLennan (https://gigainvestors.com/FE) | USD 16,379,000 | <0.1% | add +15.08% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2023 Q4: USD 4,325,538 · 1 holder · USD 10.86
- 2024 Q1: USD 4,356,508 · 1 holder · USD 7.96
- 2024 Q2: USD 4,975,344 · 1 holder · USD 6.98
- 2024 Q3: USD 8,004,510 · 1 holder · USD 9.06
- 2024 Q4: USD 8,842,560 · 1 holder · USD 9.06
- 2025 Q1: USD 8,825,992 · 1 holder · USD 8.89
- 2025 Q2: USD 7,892,334 · 1 holder · USD 8.93
- 2025 Q3: USD 9,389,480 · 1 holder · USD 10.60
- 2025 Q4: USD 10,313,440 · 1 holder · USD 11.68
- 2026 Q1: USD 11,930,020 · 1 holder · USD 12.28
- 2026 Q2: USD 16,379,000 · 1 holder · USD 14.65