# AB Volvo (publ) (VOLV-B.ST)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VOLV-B.ST

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: SEK. Reporting currency: SEK.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: SEK 319.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low SEK 233.46 per share, central SEK 263.10 per share, high SEK 302.55 per share. Buy at or below the central value SEK 263.10 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.6% at the stated quote. About 8.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; SE 10-year bond 3.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.11×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.12×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.13×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 7.6%

- FY2017: 13.0%

- FY2018: 14.0%

- FY2019: 17.4%

- FY2020: 10.4%

- FY2021: 15.1%

- FY2022: 12.2%

- FY2023: 16.0%

- FY2024: 14.1%

- FY2025: 10.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: SEK 204B

- Net income, five-year total: SEK 200B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 18.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 33.8%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.96×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 1.13×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 0.96×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.0% vs 14.1%

- Per-share earnings: 7.42 to 24.51 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: SEK 385B

- Cumulative retained earnings: SEK 91B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 16.1%

- Per-share value change: SEK 17.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: SEK 7.42

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: SEK 24.51

- Buyback history: 0 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: SEK 16B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: SEK 314B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: SEK 6.47

- FY2017: SEK 10.33

- FY2018: SEK 12.25

- FY2019: SEK 17.64

- FY2020: SEK 9.50

- FY2021: SEK 16.13

- FY2022: SEK 16.09

- FY2023: SEK 24.51

- FY2024: SEK 24.79

- FY2025: SEK 16.95

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.7%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.32×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.1%

- FY2017: -4.0%

- FY2018: -1.3%

- FY2019: -0.6%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: -0.2%

- FY2022: -0.1%

- FY2023: 4.2%

- FY2024: 0.6%

- FY2025: -1.7%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years · sales -9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.877Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-23: Truck maker Volvo profit falls more than expected, cuts North America market outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/truck-maker-volvos-q1-profit-052731163.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: SEK 302B 

- FY2017: SEK 335B 

- FY2018: SEK 391B 

- FY2019: SEK 432B 

- FY2020: SEK 338B 

- FY2021: SEK 372B 

- FY2022: SEK 473B 

- FY2023: SEK 553B 

- FY2024: SEK 527B 

- FY2025: SEK 479B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 24.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 23.3% 

- FY2017: 23.9% 

- FY2018: 22.4% 

- FY2019: 24.3% 

- FY2020: 23.4% 

- FY2021: 24.1% 

- FY2022: 22.8% 

- FY2023: 27.0% 

- FY2024: 27.3% 

- FY2025: 24.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in farm & heavy construction machinery; annual sales are SEK 479.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2025: revenue 479183000000; grossProfit 116675000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VOLV-B.ST: AB Volvo (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells trucks, buses, construction equipment, and marine and industrial engines in Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. The company operates through Industrial Operations - Trucks, Industrial Operations - Construction Equipment, Industrial Operations - Buses, Industrial Operations - Volvo Penta, Industrial Operations - Group Functions & Other, and Financial Services segments. The company offers heavy-duty trucks for long-haulage and construction work, and light-duty trucks for distribution purposes under the Volvo, Renault Trucks, Mack, Eicher, and Dongfeng Trucks brands; and city and intercity buses, coaches, and chassis under the Prevost and Volvo Bus brands. It also provides haulers, wheel loaders, excavators, road construction machines, and compact equipment under the Volvo, SDLG, and Rokbak brands. In addition, the company offers engines and power solutions for industrial off-highway applications and power generation, as well as for leisure boats, yachts, and commercial vessels under the Volvo Penta brand. Further, it provides customer support agreements, machine control systems, attachments, financing, and leasing; and insurance, rentals, spare parts, repairs, preventive maintenance, uptime and service agreements, and assistance services. It serves customers primarily in the transportation, infrastructure, construction, marine, industrial, and public transportation industries. The company offers its products and services through a network of dealers. AB Volvo (publ) was incorporated in 1915 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.3% to 27.3% during 2023–25; it earns 13.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 27%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 27.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.07593699981738643],[2017,0.13011640222225304],[2018,0.13997736571656727],[2019,0.17440418784585576],[2020,0.10438943098619732],[2021,0.15090723418374374],[2022,0.12159911882664823],[2023,0.1597520776778238],[2024,0.14149002945977748],[2025,0.1077904142322044]]; median 0.13504688396941017. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 20342000000; owner earnings 6510000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2017: growth capex 4826000000; upkeep 14408000000; owner earnings 20981000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23001763500309805.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2018: growth capex 5724000000; upkeep 15144000000; owner earnings 24897000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22990721773707676.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2019: growth capex 5050000000; upkeep 16959000000; owner earnings 34443200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1466182003994983.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 17320000000; owner earnings 18581800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2021: growth capex 3120000000; upkeep 18719000000; owner earnings 31566800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09883801969157469.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2022: growth capex 5117000000; upkeep 20729000000; owner earnings 31405400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.16293376298343598.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 13120000000; owner earnings 56493800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 18385000000; owner earnings 51821400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 18344000000; owner earnings 32916400000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,6093000000],[2017,6603000000],[2018,8636000000],[2019,20335000000],[2020,12200816000],[2021,49820000000],[2022,26435000000],[2023,28468000000],[2024,36602000000],[2025,37619000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 1.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VOLV-B.ST SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 1.891 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:49.134Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.03717364962578629. Price 319.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 7.4177339901477835 → FY2025 16.191047712739792. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (SEK per share)

- 2016-10: SEK 97.00 per share

- 2016-11: SEK 98.60 per share

- 2016-12: SEK 106.40 per share

- 2017-01: SEK 111.80 per share

- 2017-02: SEK 117.90 per share

- 2017-03: SEK 132.30 per share

- 2017-04: SEK 144.90 per share

- 2017-05: SEK 142.10 per share

- 2017-06: SEK 143.60 per share

- 2017-07: SEK 137.20 per share

- 2017-08: SEK 135.70 per share

- 2017-09: SEK 157.00 per share

- 2017-10: SEK 165.90 per share

- 2017-11: SEK 159.20 per share

- 2017-12: SEK 152.70 per share

- 2018-01: SEK 160.85 per share

- 2018-02: SEK 156.95 per share

- 2018-03: SEK 152.25 per share

- 2018-04: SEK 149.20 per share

- 2018-05: SEK 151.75 per share

- 2018-06: SEK 143.20 per share

- 2018-07: SEK 154.15 per share

- 2018-08: SEK 157.50 per share

- 2018-09: SEK 157.10 per share

- 2018-10: SEK 136.80 per share

- 2018-11: SEK 126.60 per share

- 2018-12: SEK 115.95 per share

- 2019-01: SEK 130.05 per share

- 2019-02: SEK 136.00 per share

- 2019-03: SEK 144.00 per share

- 2019-04: SEK 152.00 per share

- 2019-05: SEK 132.75 per share

- 2019-06: SEK 147.35 per share

- 2019-07: SEK 144.25 per share

- 2019-08: SEK 135.50 per share

- 2019-09: SEK 138.25 per share

- 2019-10: SEK 144.40 per share

- 2019-11: SEK 148.05 per share

- 2019-12: SEK 156.90 per share

- 2020-01: SEK 165.30 per share

- 2020-02: SEK 148.80 per share

- 2020-03: SEK 119.50 per share

- 2020-04: SEK 126.15 per share

- 2020-05: SEK 133.25 per share

- 2020-06: SEK 145.90 per share

- 2020-07: SEK 150.90 per share

- 2020-08: SEK 165.30 per share

- 2020-09: SEK 173.05 per share

- 2020-10: SEK 173.15 per share

- 2020-11: SEK 194.80 per share

- 2020-12: SEK 193.80 per share

- 2021-01: SEK 206.80 per share

- 2021-02: SEK 216.30 per share

- 2021-03: SEK 220.90 per share

- 2021-04: SEK 206.85 per share

- 2021-05: SEK 217.10 per share

- 2021-06: SEK 205.90 per share

- 2021-07: SEK 202.75 per share

- 2021-08: SEK 195.14 per share

- 2021-09: SEK 197.06 per share

- 2021-10: SEK 199.92 per share

- 2021-11: SEK 195.42 per share

- 2021-12: SEK 209.65 per share

- 2022-01: SEK 208.25 per share

- 2022-02: SEK 183.78 per share

- 2022-03: SEK 176.60 per share

- 2022-04: SEK 158.44 per share

- 2022-05: SEK 171.06 per share

- 2022-06: SEK 158.38 per share

- 2022-07: SEK 181.56 per share

- 2022-08: SEK 169.28 per share

- 2022-09: SEK 158.08 per share

- 2022-10: SEK 180.80 per share

- 2022-11: SEK 191.98 per share

- 2022-12: SEK 188.48 per share

- 2023-01: SEK 206.85 per share

- 2023-02: SEK 209.80 per share

- 2023-03: SEK 213.85 per share

- 2023-04: SEK 210.80 per share

- 2023-05: SEK 200.25 per share

- 2023-06: SEK 223.00 per share

- 2023-07: SEK 232.05 per share

- 2023-08: SEK 221.20 per share

- 2023-09: SEK 225.60 per share

- 2023-10: SEK 220.90 per share

- 2023-11: SEK 243.25 per share

- 2023-12: SEK 261.70 per share

- 2024-01: SEK 249.90 per share

- 2024-02: SEK 285.10 per share

- 2024-03: SEK 290.10 per share

- 2024-04: SEK 283.40 per share

- 2024-05: SEK 282.00 per share

- 2024-06: SEK 271.10 per share

- 2024-07: SEK 273.30 per share

- 2024-08: SEK 272.60 per share

- 2024-09: SEK 268.20 per share

- 2024-10: SEK 276.70 per share

- 2024-11: SEK 271.60 per share

- 2024-12: SEK 268.60 per share

- 2025-01: SEK 306.70 per share

- 2025-02: SEK 333.00 per share

- 2025-03: SEK 293.20 per share

- 2025-04: SEK 262.60 per share

- 2025-05: SEK 265.90 per share

- 2025-06: SEK 265.40 per share

- 2025-07: SEK 281.20 per share

- 2025-08: SEK 290.90 per share

- 2025-09: SEK 269.50 per share

- 2025-10: SEK 262.00 per share

- 2025-11: SEK 282.80 per share

- 2025-12: SEK 295.90 per share

- 2026-01: SEK 324.00 per share

- 2026-02: SEK 351.80 per share

- 2026-03: SEK 305.50 per share

- 2026-04: SEK 319.10 per share

- 2026-05: SEK 325.50 per share

- 2026-06: SEK 329.50 per share

- 2026-07: SEK 364.30 per share

- 2026-08: SEK 346.20 per share

- 2026-09: SEK 322.60 per share

- 2026-10: SEK 319.70 per share

## Annual estimated value (SEK per share)

- FY2016: low SEK 21.47 per share, central SEK 23.14 per share, high SEK 25.35 per share

- FY2017: low SEK 54.98 per share, central SEK 62.56 per share, high SEK 70.44 per share

- FY2018: low SEK 123.97 per share, central SEK 147.94 per share, high SEK 169.86 per share

- FY2019: low SEK 196.01 per share, central SEK 263.46 per share, high SEK 305.50 per share

- FY2020: low SEK 153.83 per share, central SEK 180.53 per share, high SEK 205.12 per share

- FY2021: low SEK 148.80 per share, central SEK 166.38 per share, high SEK 189.78 per share

- FY2022: low SEK 218.47 per share, central SEK 273.38 per share, high SEK 314.77 per share

- FY2023: low SEK 317.91 per share, central SEK 430.08 per share, high SEK 499.25 per share

- FY2024: low SEK 315.02 per share, central SEK 416.16 per share, high SEK 482.35 per share

- FY2025: low SEK 276.21 per share, central SEK 345.21 per share, high SEK 398.12 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:34.190Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations