# Koninklijke Vopak NV (VPK.AS)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/VPK.AS

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z. Financial observations: FY2002–FY2025.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 52.70 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 21.07 per share, central EUR 23.89 per share, high EUR 27.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 23.89 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.1% at the stated quote. About 6.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; NL 10-year bond 3.5% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 7 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 7

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.32×

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.28×

- FY2019: 0.30×

- FY2020: 0.28×

- FY2021: 0.24×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.31×

- FY2025: 0.29×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.1%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 44.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 28.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.3%

- FY2017: 8.8%

- FY2018: 6.6%

- FY2019: 6.2%

- FY2020: 4.9%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 4.7%

- FY2023: 6.7%

- FY2024: 5.9%

- FY2025: 5.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.49×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 730M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 1.5B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 7.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.21×

- FY2022: 1.86×

- FY2023: 0.72×

- FY2024: 0.58×

- FY2025: 0.75×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 8.8% vs 5.9%

- Per-share earnings: 2.21 to 3.61 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Market cap gain: EUR -1.4B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 1.2B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.8%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 6.3%

- Per-share value change: EUR 1.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 2.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 3.61

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 1.4%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 122M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 3.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 8.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 4.18

- FY2017: EUR 1.84

- FY2018: EUR 1.99

- FY2019: EUR 4.46

- FY2020: EUR 2.35

- FY2021: EUR 1.70

- FY2022: EUR -1.34

- FY2023: EUR 3.61

- FY2024: EUR 3.19

- FY2025: EUR 5.27

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -2.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.01×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.5%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.29×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.3%

- FY2017: -8.5%

- FY2018: -7.0%

- FY2019: 0.2%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -6.4%

- FY2022: -14.1%

- FY2023: -6.1%

- FY2024: -7.8%

- FY2025: -2.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 11% a year for ten years · sales -1.3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.057Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -1.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: EUR 1.4B 

- FY2017: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2018: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2019: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2020: EUR 1.2B 

- FY2021: EUR 1.2B 

- FY2022: EUR 1.4B 

- FY2023: EUR 1.4B 

- FY2024: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2025: EUR 1.3B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 43.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 95.8% 

- FY2017: 95.3% 

- FY2018: 95.3% 

- FY2019: 37.2% 

- FY2020: 36.9% 

- FY2021: 32.6% 

- FY2022: 43.7% 

- FY2023: 45.7% 

- FY2024: 76.6% 

- FY2025: 43.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas midstream; annual sales are EUR 1.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2025: revenue 1298900000; grossProfit 568900000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.8% to 76.6% during 2023–25; it earns 6.1% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 45.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 43.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.09272923651191399],[2017,0.08818113847835923],[2018,0.06581728275743903],[2019,0.06217635403929514],[2020,0.04894961142920453],[2021,0.03943838473835358],[2022,0.04728993199535578],[2023,0.06657510842038873],[2024,0.058930154004216646],[2025,0.056480283086917445]]; median 0.06055325402175589. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back EUR 102.2 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 328000000; owner earnings 469900000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 319100000; owner earnings 189100000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 504000000; owner earnings 23600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 619600000; owner earnings 165020000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2021: growth capex 123418154.20275897; upkeep 396381845.79724103; owner earnings 45258154.20275897. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.726981609763381.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2023: growth capex 91000000; upkeep 323000000; owner earnings 327760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.27764217720283135.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 335700000; owner earnings 217120000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 343300000; owner earnings 452840000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,127500000],[2017,133900000],[2018,134000000],[2019,140500000],[2020,146100000],[2021,150500000],[2022,156800000],[2023,163100000],[2024,183500000],[2025,185300000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 102200000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 52.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); VPK.AS SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 52.625 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

Vesting depends on 3-year performance against pre-set targets.

- Source: https://filings.xbrl.org/724500UL634GFV1KYF10/2025-12-31/ESEF/NL/0/724500UL634GFV1KYF10-2025-12-31-1-en/reports/7724500UL634GFV1KYF10-2025-12-31-1-en.xhtml (filed 2026-03-10); The plan is fully performance driven and forward looking. Vesting depends on 3-year performance against pre-set targets. As long as awards made under the Executive Board LTI programs remain unvested, Executive Board members are only eligible for vesting; no entitlement is established.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:46.288Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.14609716121104477. Price 52.7; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 2.20885325919351 → FY2025 3.949587894117134. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 46.01 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 44.10 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 44.88 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 39.72 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 39.92 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 40.88 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 41.42 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 40.31 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 40.60 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 40.27 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 35.56 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 37.11 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 37.18 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 35.50 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 36.57 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 36.39 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 38.85 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 39.85 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 40.90 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 42.00 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 39.57 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 40.28 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 44.40 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 42.44 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 40.00 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 38.60 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 39.68 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 44.41 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 42.99 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 42.66 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 39.75 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 36.70 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 40.55 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 44.60 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 43.36 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 47.16 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 49.19 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 48.39 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 48.33 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 48.38 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 43.15 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 47.42 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 52.62 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 49.31 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 47.08 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 46.35 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 46.02 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 48.06 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 44.63 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 44.03 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 42.99 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 41.69 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 39.51 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 42.45 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 38.10 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 38.68 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 38.30 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 35.69 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 36.67 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 34.00 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 34.40 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 33.56 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 30.80 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 30.47 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 33.04 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 29.37 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 25.62 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 26.70 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 24.08 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 22.63 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 21.94 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 18.70 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 20.70 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 28.25 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 27.75 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 27.62 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 30.18 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 32.49 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 34.60 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 32.85 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 32.69 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 34.27 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 33.29 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 32.42 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 31.81 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 31.50 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 30.44 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 28.95 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 34.38 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 35.73 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 37.32 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 37.74 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 38.76 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 41.18 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 41.58 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 41.68 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 42.24 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 44.30 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 42.50 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 44.30 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 40.72 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 40.10 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 36.44 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 40.36 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 42.22 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 41.88 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 41.32 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 39.04 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 39.28 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 39.04 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 37.88 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 42.06 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 46.44 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 46.90 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 42.64 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 45.76 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 45.64 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 48.98 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 47.98 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 47.80 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 51.70 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 25.51 per share, central EUR 28.72 per share, high EUR 33.00 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 17.00 per share, central EUR 19.23 per share, high EUR 22.21 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 15.93 per share, central EUR 18.08 per share, high EUR 20.93 per share

- FY2019: low EUR 15.89 per share, central EUR 18.01 per share, high EUR 20.83 per share

- FY2020: low EUR 14.02 per share, central EUR 15.90 per share, high EUR 18.41 per share

- FY2021: low EUR 4.32 per share, central EUR 4.87 per share, high EUR 5.59 per share

- FY2022: low EUR 2.28 per share, central EUR 2.58 per share, high EUR 2.99 per share

- FY2023: low EUR 5.90 per share, central EUR 6.55 per share, high EUR 7.39 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 5.09 per share, central EUR 5.71 per share, high EUR 6.54 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 21.08 per share, central EUR 23.89 per share, high EUR 27.65 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations