# Welltower (WELL.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WELL

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:04.038Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $234.63 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $56.93 per share, central $64.45 per share, high $74.46 per share. Buy at or below the central value $64.45 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:04.038Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.8% at the stated quote. About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.47×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.26×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.16×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Mar 2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 2.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.5%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 39.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.9%

- FY2017: 3.9%

- FY2018: 4.2%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: 2.5%

- FY2021: 2.3%

- FY2022: 1.5%

- FY2023: 2.3%

- FY2024: 2.5%

- FY2025: 0.6%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 3.76×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $10B

- Net income, five-year total: $2.7B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 0.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 13.8 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 41.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 4.08×

- FY2022: 10.25×

- FY2023: 5.09×

- FY2024: 2.70×

- FY2025: 3.25×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 4.2% vs 2.3%

- Per-share earnings: 2.53 to 1.38 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 6.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 10.2%

- Market cap gain: $105B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$5.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 6.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 10.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.3%

- Per-share value change: -$1.15

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.53

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.38

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 4.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 2.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.99

- FY2017: $1.42

- FY2018: $2.15

- FY2019: $3.05

- FY2020: $2.35

- FY2021: $0.79

- FY2022: $0.30

- FY2023: $0.66

- FY2024: $1.56

- FY2025: $1.38

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -2.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 54.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.08×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.9%

- FY2017: -3.3%

- FY2018: -2.6%

- FY2019: -0.9%

- FY2020: -1.2%

- FY2021: -2.7%

- FY2022: -3.1%

- FY2023: -2.9%

- FY2024: -2.6%

- FY2025: -2.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.7% a year for ten years · sales +8.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:51.140Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 17.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-28: Welltower raises annual FFO forecast on strong demand for senior housing ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/welltower-raises-annual-ffo-forecast-204900629.html))

- 2025-10-27: Welltower unveils $14B of acquisitions for senior housing rentals; posts Q3 earnings beat ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4508969-welltower-unveils-14b-of-acquisitions-for-senior-housing-rentals-posts-q3-earnings-beat?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-02-12: Why Welltower (WELL) Is Up 12.1% After Raising 2026 Guidance And Highlighting FFO Momentum ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-welltower-well-12-1-141527594.html))

- 2026-04-29: Welltower's Q1 FFO Beat Estimates on Strong SHO NOI Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/healthcare/articles/welltowers-q1-ffo-beat-estimates-173700847.html))

- 2026-07-28: Welltower's Q2 FFO Beat Estimates on Strong SHO NOI Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/welltowers-q2-ffo-beat-estimates-182400705.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +8.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2017: $4.3B 

- FY2018: $4.7B 

- FY2019: $5.1B 

- FY2020: $4.6B 

- FY2021: $4.7B 

- FY2022: $5.8B 

- FY2023: $6.5B 

- FY2024: $7.9B 

- FY2025: $11B 

- FY2026: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 39.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-12.

- FY2016: 55.9% 

- FY2017: 51.5% 

- FY2018: 47.9% 

- FY2019: 47.3% 

- FY2020: 43.4% 

- FY2021: 41.1% 

- FY2022: 38.4% 

- FY2023: 39.1% 

- FY2024: 38.5% 

- FY2025: 39.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 10.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: revenue 10667136000; grossProfit 4179055000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.5% to 39.2% during 2023–25; it earns 2.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 39.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 38.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 39.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04902466508620048],[2017,0.03890517283209797],[2018,0.04156928640705555],[2019,0.04040118240959908],[2020,0.025185485462441794],[2021,0.02333046280136058],[2022,0.015192674664346222],[2023,0.023416280496231432],[2024,0.02535638545787289],[2025,0.006109912748881172]]; median 0.025270935460157344. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 16943000; owner earnings 1971246000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13489000; owner earnings 1447883000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 7905000; owner earnings 1767116000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 15272000; owner earnings 2260384000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 17472000; owner earnings 2011152000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 19352000; owner earnings 1369964000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 30491000; owner earnings 1447632000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 50699000; owner earnings 1732612000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 58115000; owner earnings 2573198000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 33799000; owner earnings 3041574000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Dividend observations: [[2016,1298925000],[2017,1325617000],[2018,1348863000],[2019,1400712000],[2020,1119232000],[2021,1035906000],[2022,1131527000],[2023,1260578000],[2024,1545275000],[2025,1877959000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WELL.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.061 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"We are exposed to operational and legal risks with respect to our properties" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-12); We are exposed to operational and legal risks with respect to our properties

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 17.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-12); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.24326977316447312. Price 234.63; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.8947095791931865 → FY2025 4.476055927631376. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $68.53 per share

- 2016-11: $62.78 per share

- 2016-12: $66.93 per share

- 2017-01: $66.30 per share

- 2017-02: $70.38 per share

- 2017-03: $70.82 per share

- 2017-04: $71.44 per share

- 2017-05: $72.54 per share

- 2017-06: $74.85 per share

- 2017-07: $73.39 per share

- 2017-08: $73.22 per share

- 2017-09: $70.28 per share

- 2017-10: $66.96 per share

- 2017-11: $67.46 per share

- 2017-12: $63.77 per share

- 2018-01: $59.97 per share

- 2018-02: $52.50 per share

- 2018-03: $54.43 per share

- 2018-04: $53.44 per share

- 2018-05: $57.65 per share

- 2018-06: $62.69 per share

- 2018-07: $62.60 per share

- 2018-08: $66.71 per share

- 2018-09: $64.32 per share

- 2018-10: $66.07 per share

- 2018-11: $72.33 per share

- 2018-12: $69.41 per share

- 2019-01: $77.49 per share

- 2019-02: $74.31 per share

- 2019-03: $77.60 per share

- 2019-04: $74.53 per share

- 2019-05: $81.22 per share

- 2019-06: $81.53 per share

- 2019-07: $83.12 per share

- 2019-08: $89.56 per share

- 2019-09: $90.65 per share

- 2019-10: $90.69 per share

- 2019-11: $84.57 per share

- 2019-12: $81.78 per share

- 2020-01: $84.91 per share

- 2020-02: $74.82 per share

- 2020-03: $45.78 per share

- 2020-04: $51.23 per share

- 2020-05: $50.67 per share

- 2020-06: $51.75 per share

- 2020-07: $53.56 per share

- 2020-08: $57.52 per share

- 2020-09: $55.09 per share

- 2020-10: $53.77 per share

- 2020-11: $62.98 per share

- 2020-12: $64.62 per share

- 2021-01: $60.60 per share

- 2021-02: $67.90 per share

- 2021-03: $71.63 per share

- 2021-04: $75.03 per share

- 2021-05: $74.77 per share

- 2021-06: $83.10 per share

- 2021-07: $86.86 per share

- 2021-08: $87.53 per share

- 2021-09: $82.40 per share

- 2021-10: $80.40 per share

- 2021-11: $79.62 per share

- 2021-12: $85.77 per share

- 2022-01: $86.63 per share

- 2022-02: $83.29 per share

- 2022-03: $96.14 per share

- 2022-04: $90.81 per share

- 2022-05: $89.09 per share

- 2022-06: $82.35 per share

- 2022-07: $86.34 per share

- 2022-08: $76.65 per share

- 2022-09: $64.32 per share

- 2022-10: $61.04 per share

- 2022-11: $71.03 per share

- 2022-12: $65.55 per share

- 2023-01: $75.04 per share

- 2023-02: $74.12 per share

- 2023-03: $71.69 per share

- 2023-04: $79.22 per share

- 2023-05: $74.61 per share

- 2023-06: $80.89 per share

- 2023-07: $82.15 per share

- 2023-08: $82.88 per share

- 2023-09: $81.92 per share

- 2023-10: $83.61 per share

- 2023-11: $89.10 per share

- 2023-12: $90.17 per share

- 2024-01: $86.51 per share

- 2024-02: $92.16 per share

- 2024-03: $93.44 per share

- 2024-04: $95.28 per share

- 2024-05: $103.67 per share

- 2024-06: $104.25 per share

- 2024-07: $111.25 per share

- 2024-08: $120.68 per share

- 2024-09: $128.03 per share

- 2024-10: $134.88 per share

- 2024-11: $138.18 per share

- 2024-12: $126.03 per share

- 2025-01: $136.48 per share

- 2025-02: $153.51 per share

- 2025-03: $153.21 per share

- 2025-04: $152.59 per share

- 2025-05: $154.28 per share

- 2025-06: $153.73 per share

- 2025-07: $165.07 per share

- 2025-08: $168.28 per share

- 2025-09: $178.14 per share

- 2025-10: $181.04 per share

- 2025-11: $208.22 per share

- 2025-12: $185.61 per share

- 2026-01: $188.36 per share

- 2026-02: $207.12 per share

- 2026-03: $197.71 per share

- 2026-04: $217.34 per share

- 2026-05: $205.33 per share

- 2026-06: $226.97 per share

- 2026-07: $234.44 per share

- 2026-08: $236.24 per share

- 2026-09: $230.24 per share

- 2026-10: $230.14 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $72.37 per share, central $102.99 per share, high $120.82 per share

- FY2017: low $64.86 per share, central $92.47 per share, high $108.54 per share

- FY2018: low $63.07 per share, central $81.77 per share, high $95.57 per share

- FY2019: low $76.55 per share, central $109.16 per share, high $128.15 per share

- FY2020: low $56.15 per share, central $63.41 per share, high $73.08 per share

- FY2021: low $46.03 per share, central $52.32 per share, high $60.70 per share

- FY2022: low $52.46 per share, central $59.54 per share, high $68.96 per share

- FY2023: low $43.30 per share, central $48.78 per share, high $56.07 per share

- FY2024: low $46.52 per share, central $52.18 per share, high $59.71 per share

- FY2025: low $56.02 per share, central $62.76 per share, high $71.74 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:50.026Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/766704/000076670426000010/well-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-12.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations



# WELL — Welltower Inc.

Held by 1 investor · USD 3,723,891 total · 2024 Q4 · reported price USD 126.02 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WELL

## Holders (2024 Q4)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Christopher Davis (https://gigainvestors.com/DAV) | USD 3,723,891 | <0.1% | reduce -0.64% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2019 Q4: USD 12,705,341 · 1 holder · USD 45.78
- 2020 Q1: USD 10,630,574 · 1 holder · USD 45.78
- 2020 Q2: USD 16,024,388 · 1 holder · USD 51.75
- 2020 Q3: USD 17,619,435 · 1 holder · USD 55.09
- 2020 Q4: USD 18,032,857 · 1 holder · USD 64.62
- 2021 Q1: USD 14,682,001 · 1 holder · USD 71.63
- 2021 Q2: USD 20,363,655 · 1 holder · USD 83.10
- 2021 Q3: USD 17,617,120 · 1 holder · USD 82.40
- 2021 Q4: USD 21,257,237 · 1 holder · USD 85.77
- 2022 Q1: USD 23,574,489 · 1 holder · USD 96.14
- 2022 Q2: USD 20,120,576 · 1 holder · USD 82.35
- 2022 Q3: USD 13,834,589 · 1 holder · USD 64.32
- 2022 Q4: USD 10,027,839 · 1 holder · USD 65.55
- 2023 Q1: USD 13,015,320 · 1 holder · USD 71.69
- 2023 Q2: USD 14,685,580 · 1 holder · USD 80.89
- 2023 Q3: USD 12,508,365 · 1 holder · USD 81.92
- 2023 Q4: USD 12,114,340 · 1 holder · USD 90.17
- 2024 Q1: USD 12,144,397 · 1 holder · USD 93.44
- 2024 Q2: USD 10,003,190 · 1 holder · USD 103.66
- 2024 Q3: USD 3,807,910 · 1 holder · USD 128.04
- 2024 Q4: USD 3,723,891 · 1 holder · USD 126.02
- 2025 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders