# Yancoal Australia (YAL.AU)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/YAL.AU

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: AUD. Reporting currency: AUD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: AUD 5.89 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low AUD 13.37 per share, central AUD 15.01 per share, high AUD 17.19 per share. Buy at or below the central value AUD 15.01 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 25.6% at the stated quote. About 25.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; AU 10-year bond 5.2% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 6 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 6

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 0.87×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.09×

- FY2017: 0.13×

- FY2018: 0.27×

- FY2019: 0.23×

- FY2020: -0.01×

- FY2021: 0.28×

- FY2022: 0.54×

- FY2023: 0.49×

- FY2024: 0.24×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.3pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -0.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.3 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 46.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 12.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.1%

- FY2017: 2.6%

- FY2018: 10.8%

- FY2019: 11.1%

- FY2020: -0.3%

- FY2021: 13.7%

- FY2022: 67.9%

- FY2023: 37.7%

- FY2024: 16.9%

- FY2025: 6.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.19×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: AUD 9.3B

- Net income, five-year total: AUD 7.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -5.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.6%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.70×

- FY2022: 1.09×

- FY2023: 1.20×

- FY2024: 1.11×

- FY2025: 1.26×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 2.6% vs 16.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.12 to 0.92 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- Market cap gain: AUD -14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: AUD 3.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: AUD 1.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: AUD -0.12

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: AUD 0.92

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.10

- Average buyback yield: 0.4%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: AUD 133M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: AUD 8.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 2.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: AUD -0.12

- FY2017: AUD 0.15

- FY2018: AUD 0.67

- FY2019: AUD 0.54

- FY2020: AUD -0.79

- FY2021: AUD 0.60

- FY2022: AUD 2.70

- FY2023: AUD 1.38

- FY2024: AUD 0.92

- FY2025: AUD 0.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.8%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.89×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.7%

- FY2017: -1.5%

- FY2018: -7.9%

- FY2019: -7.5%

- FY2020: -14.9%

- FY2021: -9.0%

- FY2022: -22.0%

- FY2023: 4.7%

- FY2024: -7.4%

- FY2025: -6.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Mar 2026 · sales -13.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.992Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 13.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -13.1%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: AUD 1.2B 

- FY2017: AUD 2.6B 

- FY2018: AUD 4.9B 

- FY2019: AUD 4.5B 

- FY2020: AUD 3.6B 

- FY2021: AUD 5.5B 

- FY2022: AUD 11B 

- FY2023: AUD 7.8B 

- FY2024: AUD 6.8B 

- FY2025: AUD 5.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 38.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 30.0% 

- FY2017: 44.8% 

- FY2018: 53.3% 

- FY2019: 43.8% 

- FY2020: 24.1% 

- FY2021: 48.9% 

- FY2022: 70.5% 

- FY2023: 58.3% 

- FY2024: 79.3% 

- FY2025: 38.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in thermal coal; annual sales are AUD 5.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2025: revenue 5883000000; grossProfit 2267000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.5% to 79.3% during 2023–25; it earns 10.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 58.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 79.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.010647158814958717],[2017,0.025554221444367566],[2018,0.10786814678731033],[2019,0.11093014544926007],[2020,-0.003178526267387056],[2021,0.13747571816100454],[2022,0.6790277025741589],[2023,0.37705251168296305],[2024,0.16930250199027214],[2025,0.05953462164376352]]; median 0.10939914611828519. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2017: growth capex 43000000; upkeep 259000000; owner earnings 229000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18777292576419213.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 198000000; owner earnings 1185000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 285000000; owner earnings 1026200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 269000000; owner earnings 1344800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 550000000; owner earnings 3905200000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 622000000; owner earnings 2190600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 702000000; owner earnings 1346000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 750000000; owner earnings 554000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,130000000],[2017,130000000],[2018,130000000],[2019,514000000],[2020,280000000],[2021,1626000000],[2022,1626000000],[2023,1413000000],[2024,429000000],[2025,769000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 70.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YAL.AU SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 70.71600000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 13.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:37:20.463Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.19964777262020045. Price 5.89; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.23127492810097258 → FY2025 0.4195573079688473. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (AUD per share)

- 2016-10: AUD 9.69 per share

- 2016-11: AUD 8.61 per share

- 2016-12: AUD 10.55 per share

- 2017-01: AUD 10.66 per share

- 2017-02: AUD 7.11 per share

- 2017-03: AUD 8.51 per share

- 2017-04: AUD 7.32 per share

- 2017-05: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2017-06: AUD 8.18 per share

- 2017-07: AUD 8.40 per share

- 2017-08: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2017-09: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2017-10: AUD 3.85 per share

- 2017-11: AUD 4.03 per share

- 2017-12: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2018-01: AUD 5.60 per share

- 2018-02: AUD 5.43 per share

- 2018-03: AUD 5.25 per share

- 2018-04: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2018-05: AUD 4.73 per share

- 2018-06: AUD 4.90 per share

- 2018-07: AUD 4.73 per share

- 2018-08: AUD 4.38 per share

- 2018-09: AUD 4.55 per share

- 2018-10: AUD 3.56 per share

- 2018-11: AUD 3.25 per share

- 2018-12: AUD 3.92 per share

- 2019-01: AUD 3.30 per share

- 2019-02: AUD 4.18 per share

- 2019-03: AUD 3.43 per share

- 2019-04: AUD 3.45 per share

- 2019-05: AUD 3.23 per share

- 2019-06: AUD 3.12 per share

- 2019-07: AUD 3.40 per share

- 2019-08: AUD 3.00 per share

- 2019-09: AUD 3.08 per share

- 2019-10: AUD 3.01 per share

- 2019-11: AUD 2.94 per share

- 2019-12: AUD 2.90 per share

- 2020-01: AUD 2.87 per share

- 2020-02: AUD 2.80 per share

- 2020-03: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2020-04: AUD 2.14 per share

- 2020-05: AUD 2.13 per share

- 2020-06: AUD 2.03 per share

- 2020-07: AUD 2.06 per share

- 2020-08: AUD 2.01 per share

- 2020-09: AUD 1.99 per share

- 2020-10: AUD 1.96 per share

- 2020-11: AUD 2.15 per share

- 2020-12: AUD 2.42 per share

- 2021-01: AUD 2.44 per share

- 2021-02: AUD 2.58 per share

- 2021-03: AUD 2.28 per share

- 2021-04: AUD 2.09 per share

- 2021-05: AUD 2.04 per share

- 2021-06: AUD 1.95 per share

- 2021-07: AUD 2.12 per share

- 2021-08: AUD 2.16 per share

- 2021-09: AUD 2.69 per share

- 2021-10: AUD 2.96 per share

- 2021-11: AUD 2.57 per share

- 2021-12: AUD 2.60 per share

- 2022-01: AUD 2.82 per share

- 2022-02: AUD 3.48 per share

- 2022-03: AUD 4.44 per share

- 2022-04: AUD 5.33 per share

- 2022-05: AUD 5.79 per share

- 2022-06: AUD 5.38 per share

- 2022-07: AUD 5.00 per share

- 2022-08: AUD 5.88 per share

- 2022-09: AUD 5.67 per share

- 2022-10: AUD 5.16 per share

- 2022-11: AUD 5.68 per share

- 2022-12: AUD 6.06 per share

- 2023-01: AUD 5.89 per share

- 2023-02: AUD 5.86 per share

- 2023-03: AUD 5.80 per share

- 2023-04: AUD 5.56 per share

- 2023-05: AUD 4.56 per share

- 2023-06: AUD 4.58 per share

- 2023-07: AUD 5.10 per share

- 2023-08: AUD 5.29 per share

- 2023-09: AUD 5.17 per share

- 2023-10: AUD 4.83 per share

- 2023-11: AUD 4.88 per share

- 2023-12: AUD 4.95 per share

- 2024-01: AUD 5.99 per share

- 2024-02: AUD 5.95 per share

- 2024-03: AUD 5.24 per share

- 2024-04: AUD 5.55 per share

- 2024-05: AUD 6.46 per share

- 2024-06: AUD 6.62 per share

- 2024-07: AUD 7.09 per share

- 2024-08: AUD 5.40 per share

- 2024-09: AUD 6.13 per share

- 2024-10: AUD 6.52 per share

- 2024-11: AUD 6.18 per share

- 2024-12: AUD 6.50 per share

- 2025-01: AUD 6.44 per share

- 2025-02: AUD 6.08 per share

- 2025-03: AUD 5.06 per share

- 2025-04: AUD 4.98 per share

- 2025-05: AUD 5.23 per share

- 2025-06: AUD 5.77 per share

- 2025-07: AUD 6.32 per share

- 2025-08: AUD 5.44 per share

- 2025-09: AUD 5.30 per share

- 2025-10: AUD 5.57 per share

- 2025-11: AUD 5.44 per share

- 2025-12: AUD 4.96 per share

- 2026-01: AUD 5.78 per share

- 2026-02: AUD 5.86 per share

- 2026-03: AUD 8.29 per share

- 2026-04: AUD 7.64 per share

- 2026-05: AUD 6.77 per share

- 2026-06: AUD 5.49 per share

- 2026-07: AUD 5.57 per share

- 2026-08: AUD 6.18 per share

- 2026-09: AUD 6.02 per share

- 2026-10: AUD 5.94 per share

## Annual estimated value (AUD per share)

- FY2019: low AUD 4.72 per share, central AUD 6.46 per share, high AUD 7.47 per share

- FY2020: low AUD 3.64 per share, central AUD 5.02 per share, high AUD 5.82 per share

- FY2021: low AUD 11.45 per share, central AUD 12.89 per share, high AUD 14.80 per share

- FY2022: low AUD 23.23 per share, central AUD 26.17 per share, high AUD 30.09 per share

- FY2023: low AUD 16.67 per share, central AUD 18.84 per share, high AUD 21.73 per share

- FY2024: low AUD 15.42 per share, central AUD 17.30 per share, high AUD 19.80 per share

- FY2025: low AUD 13.39 per share, central AUD 15.03 per share, high AUD 17.21 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:55.542Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations