# Full Truck Alliance (YMM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/YMM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:18.658Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $8.82 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 2.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.41×

- FY2020: -1.40×

- FY2021: -0.82×

- FY2022: -0.02×

- FY2023: 0.12×

- FY2024: 0.22×

- FY2025: 0.33×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.34×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -3.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -120.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -14.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 49.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 63.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -40.8%

- FY2020: -204.7%

- FY2021: -120.2%

- FY2022: -3.0%

- FY2023: 6.7%

- FY2024: 16.7%

- FY2025: 18.2%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 6.5B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 6.4B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 91.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 6.5 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.99×

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -120.2% vs 16.7%

- Per-share earnings: -0.46 to 0.15 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 43.6%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 43.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.61

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY -0.46

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.15

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.70

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 5 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -120.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: CNY -0.46

- FY2020: CNY -1.01

- FY2021: CNY -0.27

- FY2022: CNY 0.02

- FY2023: CNY 0.10

- FY2024: CNY 0.15

- FY2025: CNY 0.21

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.72×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 6.1%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.05×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -3.5%

- FY2020: -16.1%

- FY2021: -10.0%

- FY2022: 1.2%

- FY2023: -0.1%

- FY2024: 0.2%

- FY2025: -0.5%

## Holders

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 38% since Oct 2021 · sales +11.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.694Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2026-05-21: Full Truck Alliance tops forecasts as freight orders jump double digits (YMM) ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/full-truck-alliance-tops-forecasts-102230401.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-14.

- FY2019: CNY 2.5B 

- FY2020: CNY 2.6B 

- FY2021: CNY 4.7B 

- FY2022: CNY 6.7B 

- FY2023: CNY 8.4B 

- FY2024: CNY 11B 

- FY2025: CNY 12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 63%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm; observed 2026-04-14.

- FY2019: 43.8% 

- FY2020: 49.0% 

- FY2021: 45.5% 

- FY2022: 47.8% 

- FY2023: 85.4% 

- FY2024: 54.6% 

- FY2025: 63.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in software application; annual sales are CNY 12.5 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-14); FY2025: revenue 12489859000; grossProfit 7871063000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YMM.US: Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 54.6% to 85.4% during 2023–25; it lost 3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 85.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 54.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-14); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 63%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.40769170636004165],[2020,-2.046763796216456],[2021,-1.2023434952137524],[2022,-0.02993542662237719],[2023,0.0666061313823538],[2024,0.16653256743988415],[2025,0.18182548688280487]]; median -0.02993542662237719. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 4.1% of cash earnings; earns 91.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 85686000; cash acquisitions 76586000; owner earnings 409419000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.18706019994186884.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); FY2023: growth capex 25602000; upkeep 74742000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 2212888000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.011569496513153851.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 74967000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 3072809000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-14); FY2025: growth capex 29700000; upkeep 100014000; cash acquisitions 150468000; owner earnings 4408169000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.040871391273791906.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); Incremental return on capital 0.9128590417986086, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); Dividend observations: [[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,1064155000],[2025,1425136000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm (filed 2026-04-14); FY2025: cash repurchases 406936000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YMM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.9400000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 98.9 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-14); Closing price 8.82 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 0.14944; FY2025 annual sales per share 0.5967964422210995; price multiple 98.89526551593283. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.2106332486146835. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-06: $20.38 per share

- 2021-07: $9.47 per share

- 2021-08: $16.08 per share

- 2021-09: $15.33 per share

- 2021-10: $14.25 per share

- 2021-11: $12.51 per share

- 2021-12: $8.37 per share

- 2022-01: $8.47 per share

- 2022-02: $9.22 per share

- 2022-03: $6.67 per share

- 2022-04: $6.03 per share

- 2022-05: $6.93 per share

- 2022-06: $9.06 per share

- 2022-07: $8.49 per share

- 2022-08: $7.90 per share

- 2022-09: $6.55 per share

- 2022-10: $4.76 per share

- 2022-11: $8.53 per share

- 2022-12: $8.00 per share

- 2023-01: $8.05 per share

- 2023-02: $7.00 per share

- 2023-03: $7.61 per share

- 2023-04: $6.40 per share

- 2023-05: $5.81 per share

- 2023-06: $6.22 per share

- 2023-07: $7.49 per share

- 2023-08: $6.70 per share

- 2023-09: $7.04 per share

- 2023-10: $6.57 per share

- 2023-11: $7.49 per share

- 2023-12: $7.01 per share

- 2024-01: $6.28 per share

- 2024-02: $6.60 per share

- 2024-03: $7.27 per share

- 2024-04: $8.61 per share

- 2024-05: $8.84 per share

- 2024-06: $8.04 per share

- 2024-07: $7.60 per share

- 2024-08: $7.25 per share

- 2024-09: $9.01 per share

- 2024-10: $8.95 per share

- 2024-11: $10.01 per share

- 2024-12: $10.82 per share

- 2025-01: $11.26 per share

- 2025-02: $11.74 per share

- 2025-03: $12.77 per share

- 2025-04: $11.36 per share

- 2025-05: $11.63 per share

- 2025-06: $11.81 per share

- 2025-07: $11.55 per share

- 2025-08: $13.05 per share

- 2025-09: $12.97 per share

- 2025-10: $13.00 per share

- 2025-11: $11.35 per share

- 2025-12: $10.73 per share

- 2026-01: $9.90 per share

- 2026-02: $9.38 per share

- 2026-03: $8.30 per share

- 2026-04: $8.65 per share

- 2026-05: $8.82 per share

- 2026-06: $8.12 per share

- 2026-07: $9.49 per share

- 2026-08: $8.47 per share

- 2026-09: $8.27 per share

- 2026-10: $8.82 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:04.039Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1838413/000119312526153778/d20504d20f.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-04-14.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations

- [Christopher Davis](https://gigainvestors.com/DAV): 27,639,082 YMM shares; USD 224,429,000 reported position value; 0.96% of portfolio; reduce; quarter 2026 Q2.

# YMM — Full Truck Alliance Spn ADR

Held by 1 investor · USD 224,429,000 total · 2026 Q2 · reported price USD 8.12 (split-adjusted).
Page: https://gigainvestors.com/s/YMM

## Holders (2026 Q2)

| Investor | Value | % of their portfolio | This quarter |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| Christopher Davis (https://gigainvestors.com/DAV) | USD 224,429,000 | 1.0% | reduce -3.91% |

## Total held by quarter

- 2021 Q4: USD 95,976,338 · 1 holder · USD 8.37
- 2022 Q1: USD 52,537,636 · 1 holder · USD 6.67
- 2022 Q2: USD 13,884,178 · 1 holder · USD 9.06
- 2022 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2022 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2023 Q4: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q1: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q2: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q3: USD 0 · 0 holders
- 2024 Q4: USD 58,432,231 · 1 holder · USD 10.82
- 2025 Q1: USD 99,853,023 · 1 holder · USD 12.77
- 2025 Q2: USD 159,178,274 · 2 holders · USD 11.81
- 2025 Q3: USD 243,569,726 · 2 holders · USD 12.97
- 2025 Q4: USD 225,944,701 · 2 holders · USD 10.73
- 2026 Q1: USD 238,734,485 · 1 holder · USD 8.30
- 2026 Q2: USD 224,429,000 · 1 holder · USD 8.12