# Zalando SE (ZAL.XETRA)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ZAL.XETRA

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z. Financial observations: FY2010–FY2026.

Listing currency: EUR. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: EUR 24.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low EUR 10.64 per share, central EUR 11.43 per share, high EUR 12.49 per share. Buy at or below the central value EUR 11.43 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; DE 10-year bond 3.4% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.02×

- FY2019: 0.03×

- FY2020: 0.05×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.01×

- FY2023: 0.02×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.03×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 4.7pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 10.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 42.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 37.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 2.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 69.6%

- FY2017: 32.0%

- FY2018: 17.4%

- FY2019: 10.6%

- FY2020: 23.1%

- FY2021: 19.0%

- FY2022: 3.8%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 17.1%

- FY2025: 16.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.54×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 432M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 801M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -3.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.7%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.42×

- FY2022: -10.85×

- FY2023: -0.35×

- FY2024: 0.88×

- FY2025: 1.50×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 32.0% vs 16.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.48 to 0.83 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- Market cap gain: EUR -2.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: EUR 1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.1%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.83

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.07

- Average buyback yield: 1.0%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: EUR 1.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: EUR 1.4B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 32.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: EUR 0.48

- FY2017: EUR 0.39

- FY2018: EUR 0.21

- FY2019: EUR 0.37

- FY2020: EUR 0.89

- FY2021: EUR 0.91

- FY2022: EUR 0.06

- FY2023: EUR 0.32

- FY2024: EUR 0.97

- FY2025: EUR 0.83

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -9.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.18×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.2%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 5.24×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.59×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -6.1%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -5.0%

- FY2019: -5.3%

- FY2020: -4.6%

- FY2021: -5.5%

- FY2022: -5.8%

- FY2023: -10.7%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -9.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 70% since Oct 2021 · "Zalando trims FY26 outlook despite strong Q2 revenue growth" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +9.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:08.084Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15% a year for ten years

- 2026-05-08: Zalando’s AI Push And About You Deal Reshape Growth And Margins ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/zalando-ai-push-deal-reshape-061702263.html))

- 2026-08-05: Zalando trims FY26 outlook despite strong Q2 revenue growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/zalando-trims-fy26-outlook-despite-111039610.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +9.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2017: EUR 4.5B 

- FY2018: EUR 5.4B 

- FY2019: EUR 6.5B 

- FY2020: EUR 8.0B 

- FY2021: EUR 10B 

- FY2022: EUR 10B 

- FY2023: EUR 10B 

- FY2024: EUR 11B 

- FY2025: EUR 12B 

- FY2026: EUR 14B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 37.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 44.2% 

- FY2017: 43.6% 

- FY2018: 42.3% 

- FY2019: 42.5% 

- FY2020: 42.5% 

- FY2021: 41.8% 

- FY2022: 39.2% 

- FY2023: 36.3% 

- FY2024: 40.7% 

- FY2025: 37.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet retail; annual sales are EUR 12.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2025: revenue 12346100000; grossProfit 4614400000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 36.3% to 40.7% during 2023–25; it earns 17.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 36.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 37.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.6960490463215259],[2017,0.3200263852242744],[2018,0.17352743561030234],[2019,0.10624203262156585],[2020,0.2312580480882947],[2021,0.18986466063156499],[2022,0.038382445861336094],[2023,0.1012596173486757],[2024,0.17128353398723392],[2025,0.1663256501910514]]; median 0.17240548479876813. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 1 of 10 years; bought back EUR 194.8 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2016: growth capex 35087106.53610283; upkeep 146612893.46389717; owner earnings 22087106.53610283. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.5885786795454915.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2020: growth capex 39300000; upkeep 210800000; owner earnings 122760000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3201368523949169.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2021: growth capex 97500000; upkeep 235400000; owner earnings 98500000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9898477157360406.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 206800000; owner earnings 221880000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 98000000; owner earnings 322620000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,84500000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 194800000 EUR.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 11.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ZAL.XETRA SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 11.469999999999999 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 9.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:47.975Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20428019399674302. Price 24.87; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.49190283400809715 → FY2025 1.2497162552981815. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (EUR per share)

- 2016-10: EUR 39.99 per share

- 2016-11: EUR 35.17 per share

- 2016-12: EUR 36.29 per share

- 2017-01: EUR 36.51 per share

- 2017-02: EUR 37.75 per share

- 2017-03: EUR 37.93 per share

- 2017-04: EUR 40.49 per share

- 2017-05: EUR 42.51 per share

- 2017-06: EUR 40.01 per share

- 2017-07: EUR 37.82 per share

- 2017-08: EUR 39.79 per share

- 2017-09: EUR 42.40 per share

- 2017-10: EUR 42.96 per share

- 2017-11: EUR 42.97 per share

- 2017-12: EUR 44.12 per share

- 2018-01: EUR 47.18 per share

- 2018-02: EUR 46.90 per share

- 2018-03: EUR 44.28 per share

- 2018-04: EUR 42.75 per share

- 2018-05: EUR 45.55 per share

- 2018-06: EUR 47.87 per share

- 2018-07: EUR 49.06 per share

- 2018-08: EUR 45.32 per share

- 2018-09: EUR 33.51 per share

- 2018-10: EUR 34.20 per share

- 2018-11: EUR 27.40 per share

- 2018-12: EUR 22.44 per share

- 2019-01: EUR 26.65 per share

- 2019-02: EUR 32.40 per share

- 2019-03: EUR 34.75 per share

- 2019-04: EUR 41.94 per share

- 2019-05: EUR 35.54 per share

- 2019-06: EUR 39.02 per share

- 2019-07: EUR 41.68 per share

- 2019-08: EUR 45.00 per share

- 2019-09: EUR 41.88 per share

- 2019-10: EUR 38.85 per share

- 2019-11: EUR 39.10 per share

- 2019-12: EUR 45.18 per share

- 2020-01: EUR 43.43 per share

- 2020-02: EUR 39.53 per share

- 2020-03: EUR 34.99 per share

- 2020-04: EUR 44.49 per share

- 2020-05: EUR 60.84 per share

- 2020-06: EUR 62.78 per share

- 2020-07: EUR 61.24 per share

- 2020-08: EUR 73.14 per share

- 2020-09: EUR 79.90 per share

- 2020-10: EUR 80.18 per share

- 2020-11: EUR 84.80 per share

- 2020-12: EUR 91.06 per share

- 2021-01: EUR 94.72 per share

- 2021-02: EUR 85.02 per share

- 2021-03: EUR 83.64 per share

- 2021-04: EUR 86.54 per share

- 2021-05: EUR 87.42 per share

- 2021-06: EUR 101.95 per share

- 2021-07: EUR 93.76 per share

- 2021-08: EUR 93.80 per share

- 2021-09: EUR 79.32 per share

- 2021-10: EUR 81.58 per share

- 2021-11: EUR 80.26 per share

- 2021-12: EUR 71.14 per share

- 2022-01: EUR 69.98 per share

- 2022-02: EUR 59.58 per share

- 2022-03: EUR 46.00 per share

- 2022-04: EUR 37.83 per share

- 2022-05: EUR 37.85 per share

- 2022-06: EUR 24.96 per share

- 2022-07: EUR 27.35 per share

- 2022-08: EUR 23.11 per share

- 2022-09: EUR 20.23 per share

- 2022-10: EUR 23.33 per share

- 2022-11: EUR 29.74 per share

- 2022-12: EUR 33.11 per share

- 2023-01: EUR 42.59 per share

- 2023-02: EUR 37.60 per share

- 2023-03: EUR 38.54 per share

- 2023-04: EUR 37.17 per share

- 2023-05: EUR 27.04 per share

- 2023-06: EUR 26.36 per share

- 2023-07: EUR 31.40 per share

- 2023-08: EUR 28.73 per share

- 2023-09: EUR 21.13 per share

- 2023-10: EUR 21.99 per share

- 2023-11: EUR 21.86 per share

- 2023-12: EUR 21.45 per share

- 2024-01: EUR 18.68 per share

- 2024-02: EUR 19.52 per share

- 2024-03: EUR 26.49 per share

- 2024-04: EUR 24.66 per share

- 2024-05: EUR 24.25 per share

- 2024-06: EUR 21.89 per share

- 2024-07: EUR 23.71 per share

- 2024-08: EUR 23.44 per share

- 2024-09: EUR 29.62 per share

- 2024-10: EUR 27.62 per share

- 2024-11: EUR 29.42 per share

- 2024-12: EUR 32.39 per share

- 2025-01: EUR 36.14 per share

- 2025-02: EUR 34.75 per share

- 2025-03: EUR 31.76 per share

- 2025-04: EUR 31.97 per share

- 2025-05: EUR 31.45 per share

- 2025-06: EUR 27.95 per share

- 2025-07: EUR 25.72 per share

- 2025-08: EUR 23.80 per share

- 2025-09: EUR 26.01 per share

- 2025-10: EUR 24.26 per share

- 2025-11: EUR 23.20 per share

- 2025-12: EUR 25.34 per share

- 2026-01: EUR 24.34 per share

- 2026-02: EUR 20.75 per share

- 2026-03: EUR 20.55 per share

- 2026-04: EUR 21.03 per share

- 2026-05: EUR 23.29 per share

- 2026-06: EUR 25.37 per share

- 2026-07: EUR 28.26 per share

- 2026-08: EUR 24.65 per share

- 2026-09: EUR 22.70 per share

- 2026-10: EUR 24.38 per share

## Annual estimated value (EUR per share)

- FY2016: low EUR 5.57 per share, central EUR 5.71 per share, high EUR 5.88 per share

- FY2017: low EUR 5.06 per share, central EUR 5.22 per share, high EUR 5.43 per share

- FY2018: low EUR 5.35 per share, central EUR 5.55 per share, high EUR 5.81 per share

- FY2024: low EUR 14.84 per share, central EUR 17.10 per share, high EUR 18.42 per share

- FY2025: low EUR 11.30 per share, central EUR 11.98 per share, high EUR 12.90 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:42:34.639Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

## Reported holder observations