# TCL (000100.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/000100.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z. Financial observations: FY2000–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 4.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 3.19 per share, central CNY 3.51 per share, high CNY 3.93 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 3.51 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.1% at the stated quote. About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 1.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.00×

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.07×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.00×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: -0.02×

- FY2025: 0.00×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 4.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 3.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 9.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 17.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -0.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.3%

- FY2017: 6.6%

- FY2018: 5.1%

- FY2019: 4.9%

- FY2020: 4.5%

- FY2021: 13.8%

- FY2022: 0.3%

- FY2023: 3.5%

- FY2024: -2.3%

- FY2025: 0.3%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.83×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 34B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 19B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -0.5%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -16.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: -8.39×

- FY2023: 0.76×

- FY2024: 2.63×

- FY2025: 4.58×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.1% vs 0.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.21 to 0.12 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- acquired goodwill and intangibles (proxy) exceeds half of ten-year net income with low and deteriorating ROIC

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 9.1%

- Market cap gain: CNY 51B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 18B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 5.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 9.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.0%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.09

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.21

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.12

- Average buyback yield: 3.9%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 27B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 33B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.13

- FY2017: CNY 0.22

- FY2018: CNY 0.26

- FY2019: CNY 0.20

- FY2020: CNY 0.34

- FY2021: CNY 0.74

- FY2022: CNY 0.02

- FY2023: CNY 0.12

- FY2024: CNY 0.08

- FY2025: CNY 0.23

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -11.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.12×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 10.49×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.51×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.4%

- FY2017: -4.1%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -5.4%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -5.0%

- FY2023: -6.0%

- FY2024: -7.4%

- FY2025: -11.4%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 28% since Dec 2021 · sales +11.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:04.069Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 107B 

- FY2017: CNY 112B 

- FY2018: CNY 36B 

- FY2019: CNY 75B 

- FY2020: CNY 77B 

- FY2021: CNY 164B 

- FY2022: CNY 167B 

- FY2023: CNY 174B 

- FY2024: CNY 165B 

- FY2025: CNY 184B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 9.6%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 16.9% 

- FY2017: 20.1% 

- FY2018: 53.0% 

- FY2019: 10.9% 

- FY2020: 13.1% 

- FY2021: 18.7% 

- FY2022: 7.0% 

- FY2023: 12.2% 

- FY2024: 8.7% 

- FY2025: 9.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in semiconductor equipment & materials; annual sales are CNY 183.8 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2025: revenue 183754940000; grossProfit 17551321000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 8.7% to 12.2% during 2023–25; it earns 4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 12.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 8.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 9.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.002965622885418008],[2017,0.06553377461417402],[2018,0.05063451169113042],[2019,0.04911662146689411],[2020,0.045268172715268194],[2021,0.13817063907778485],[2022,0.003003663536178436],[2023,0.03522556816977446],[2024,-0.0229811462904463],[2025,0.003036580527848392]]; median 0.04024687044252133. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2019: growth capex 12417367000; upkeep 7698843000; owner earnings 2617765000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 4.74349951198828.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2021: growth capex 14433486000; upkeep 16421647000; owner earnings 9843838600. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.4662456980958627.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2023: growth capex 6659870000; upkeep 22914426000; owner earnings 1683317668.4948745. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.9563952334409174.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 23692323000; owner earnings 4119119800. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 16278407000; owner earnings 20670206400. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,1250928000],[2017,2706228000],[2018,3732876000],[2019,4235668000],[2020,1279155000],[2021,1625590000],[2022,7948928000],[2023,5893499000],[2024,6882538000],[2025,988269000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 14.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 000100.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 14.616000000000001 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:12.248Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.05450936192530087. Price 4.45; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.7398759554698061 → FY2025 1.0323621010621462. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-12: CNY 3.30 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 3.48 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 3.64 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 3.53 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 3.51 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 3.67 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 3.57 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 3.56 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 4.34 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 4.18 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 3.90 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 3.57 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 3.75 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 3.47 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 3.25 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 3.11 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 2.90 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 3.00 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 2.85 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 2.81 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 2.47 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 2.47 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 2.45 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 2.75 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 3.23 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 4.06 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 3.59 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 3.31 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 3.33 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 3.40 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 3.22 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 3.56 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 3.29 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 3.84 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 4.47 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 5.06 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 5.88 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 4.14 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 5.22 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 6.20 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 6.26 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 7.08 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 6.15 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 6.03 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 7.01 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 7.08 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 8.59 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 8.23 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 9.34 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 9.00 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 8.08 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 7.65 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 7.39 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 7.13 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 6.26 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 6.06 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 6.14 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 6.17 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 5.61 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 5.56 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 4.91 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 4.18 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 4.54 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 4.79 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 4.15 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 3.63 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 3.91 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 4.02 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 3.72 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 4.20 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 4.44 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 4.43 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 4.00 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 3.86 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 3.94 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 4.29 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 4.10 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 4.08 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 3.93 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 4.18 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 4.30 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 4.05 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 4.53 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 4.67 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 4.78 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 4.28 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 4.32 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 3.92 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 3.91 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 4.58 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 5.30 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 4.68 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 5.03 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 5.01 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 4.62 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 4.45 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 4.15 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 4.28 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 4.33 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 4.40 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 4.64 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 4.31 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 4.31 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 4.09 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 4.54 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 4.85 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 4.97 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 4.27 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 4.27 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 4.28 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 5.82 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 4.73 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 5.09 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 4.79 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 4.51 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2023: low CNY 2.01 per share, central CNY 2.14 per share, high CNY 2.32 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 1.70 per share, central CNY 1.83 per share, high CNY 2.00 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 3.45 per share, central CNY 3.80 per share, high CNY 4.26 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:55.882Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

TCL

000100 · SHE

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

3 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 4.45
Buy up to: CNY 3.51
Expected / yr: 8.1% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 112.2% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 3.3%
Worst year: -2.5%
Latest · 2025: 0.5%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 4% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 0.3% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 4.0%
Worst year: -2.3%
Latest · 2025: 0.3%

New investment earned -0.5% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 1.83×
Annual median: 0.98×
Latest · 2025: 4.58×

Per-share value fell from 0.21 to 0.12, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 5.1% over ten years and 9.1% over five (either must be at most 1% a year), and acquisitions used 81.1% of profits (limit 50%) while returns fell to 0.3% (minimum 15% and two-thirds of their starting level).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 0.21
Worst year: CNY 0.02
Latest · 2025: CNY 0.23

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -11.4% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -5.2%
Worst year: -3.6%
Latest · 2025: -11.4%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 3.9%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.45 CNY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-12 · Price CNY 3.30; 2017-01 · Price CNY 3.48; 2017-02 · Price CNY 3.64; 2017-03 · Price CNY 3.53; 2017-04 · Price CNY 3.51; 2017-07 · Price CNY 3.67; 2017-08 · Price CNY 3.57; 2017-09 · Price CNY 3.56; 2017-10 · Price CNY 4.34; 2017-11 · Price CNY 4.18; 2017-12 · Price CNY 3.90; 2018-01 · Price CNY 3.57; 2018-02 · Price CNY 3.75; 2018-03 · Price CNY 3.47; 2018-04 · Price CNY 3.25; 2018-05 · Price CNY 3.11; 2018-06 · Price CNY 2.90; 2018-07 · Price CNY 3.00; 2018-08 · Price CNY 2.85; 2018-09 · Price CNY 2.81; 2018-10 · Price CNY 2.47; 2018-11 · Price CNY 2.47; 2018-12 · Price CNY 2.45; 2019-01 · Price CNY 2.75; 2019-02 · Price CNY 3.23; 2019-03 · Price CNY 4.06; 2019-04 · Price CNY 3.59; 2019-05 · Price CNY 3.31; 2019-06 · Price CNY 3.33; 2019-07 · Price CNY 3.40; 2019-08 · Price CNY 3.22; 2019-09 · Price CNY 3.56; 2019-10 · Price CNY 3.29; 2019-11 · Price CNY 3.84; 2019-12 · Price CNY 4.47; 2020-01 · Price CNY 5.06; 2020-02 · Price CNY 5.88; 2020-03 · Price CNY 4.14; 2020-04 · Price CNY 4.64; 2020-05 · Price CNY 5.22; 2020-06 · Price CNY 6.20; 2020-07 · Price CNY 6.26; 2020-08 · Price CNY 7.08; 2020-09 · Price CNY 6.15; 2020-10 · Price CNY 6.03; 2020-11 · Price CNY 7.01; 2020-12 · Price CNY 7.08; 2021-01 · Price CNY 8.59; 2021-02 · Price CNY 8.23; 2021-03 · Price CNY 9.34; 2021-04 · Price CNY 9.00; 2021-05 · Price CNY 8.08; 2021-06 · Price CNY 7.65; 2021-07 · Price CNY 7.39; 2021-08 · Price CNY 7.13; 2021-09 · Price CNY 6.26; 2021-10 · Price CNY 6.06; 2021-11 · Price CNY 6.14; 2021-12 · Price CNY 6.17; 2022-01 · Price CNY 5.61; 2022-02 · Price CNY 5.56; 2022-03 · Price CNY 4.91; 2022-04 · Price CNY 4.18; 2022-05 · Price CNY 4.54; 2022-06 · Price CNY 4.79; 2022-07 · Price CNY 4.44; 2022-08 · Price CNY 4.15; 2022-09 · Price CNY 3.63; 2022-10 · Price CNY 3.91; 2022-11 · Price CNY 4.02; 2022-12 · Price CNY 3.72; 2023-01 · Price CNY 4.20 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-02 · Price CNY 4.44 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-03 · Price CNY 4.43 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-04 · Price CNY 4.00 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-05 · Price CNY 3.86 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-06 · Price CNY 3.94 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-07 · Price CNY 4.29 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-08 · Price CNY 4.10 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-09 · Price CNY 4.08 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-10 · Price CNY 3.93 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-11 · Price CNY 4.18 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2023-12 · Price CNY 4.30 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2024-01 · Price CNY 4.05 · Value 2.14 · Buy at or below 2.14; 2024-02 · Price CNY 4.53 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-03 · Price CNY 4.67 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-04 · Price CNY 4.78 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-05 · Price CNY 4.28 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-06 · Price CNY 4.32 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-07 · Price CNY 3.92 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-08 · Price CNY 3.91 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-09 · Price CNY 4.58 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-10 · Price CNY 5.30 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-11 · Price CNY 4.68 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2024-12 · Price CNY 5.03 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2025-01 · Price CNY 5.01 · Value 1.83 · Buy at or below 1.83; 2025-02 · Price CNY 4.62 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-03 · Price CNY 4.45 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-04 · Price CNY 4.15 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-05 · Price CNY 4.28 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-06 · Price CNY 4.33 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-07 · Price CNY 4.40 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-08 · Price CNY 4.64 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-09 · Price CNY 4.31 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-10 · Price CNY 4.31 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-11 · Price CNY 4.09 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2025-12 · Price CNY 4.54 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2026-01 · Price CNY 4.85 · Value 3.80 · Buy at or below 3.80; 2026-02 · Price CNY 4.97 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-03 · Price CNY 4.27 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-04 · Price CNY 4.27 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-05 · Price CNY 4.28 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-06 · Price CNY 5.82 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-07 · Price CNY 4.73 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-08 · Price CNY 5.09 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-09 · Price CNY 4.79 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-10 · Price CNY 4.51 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51; 2026-10 · Price CNY 4.45 · Value 3.51 · Buy at or below 3.51

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 3.19 – CNY 3.93
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 3.51
Discount to value	1 − 4.45 / 3.51 = -26.9%
Return / year	About 8.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.21/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 0.86/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 184B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 21B

Owner earnings

Operating margin0.5%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY -130B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares20B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025