# China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings (001979.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/001979.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z. Financial observations: FY2012–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 7.32 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 6.89 per share, central CNY 7.32 per share, high CNY 7.90 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 7.32 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 10.0% at the stated quote. About 10.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.57×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.26×

- FY2017: 0.28×

- FY2018: 0.30×

- FY2019: 0.27×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.08×

- FY2023: 0.08×

- FY2024: 0.05×

- FY2025: 0.04×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 12.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 10.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 12.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 13.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 19.4%

- FY2017: 13.6%

- FY2018: 18.8%

- FY2019: 14.7%

- FY2020: 12.8%

- FY2021: 9.0%

- FY2022: 5.6%

- FY2023: 4.5%

- FY2024: 3.1%

- FY2025: 2.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.47×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 12B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -1.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 5.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 260.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.33×

- FY2022: 0.70×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 0.32×

- FY2025: 1.37×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.8% vs 3.1%

- Per-share earnings: 1.24 to 0.45 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- material buybacks concentrated at lower earnings yields (Spearman rho below threshold)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- Market cap gain: CNY -49B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 38B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -12.0%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.79

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 1.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.45

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.71

- Average buyback yield: 7.7%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 3.3B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 92B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.24

- FY2017: CNY 1.51

- FY2018: CNY 1.84

- FY2019: CNY 1.79

- FY2020: CNY 1.34

- FY2021: CNY 1.34

- FY2022: CNY 0.55

- FY2023: CNY 0.70

- FY2024: CNY 0.45

- FY2025: CNY 0.11

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 9.78×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.03×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 9.0%

- FY2017: 5.2%

- FY2018: 1.1%

- FY2019: 0.4%

- FY2020: -2.1%

- FY2021: -1.8%

- FY2022: -2.0%

- FY2023: -2.8%

- FY2024: -3.2%

- FY2025: -1.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Sep 2022 · sales -13.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.344Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 0.9% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -13.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 64B 

- FY2017: CNY 76B 

- FY2018: CNY 88B 

- FY2019: CNY 98B 

- FY2020: CNY 130B 

- FY2021: CNY 161B 

- FY2022: CNY 183B 

- FY2023: CNY 175B 

- FY2024: CNY 179B 

- FY2025: CNY 154B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 13.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 34.3% 

- FY2017: 37.9% 

- FY2018: 38.4% 

- FY2019: 32.5% 

- FY2020: 26.7% 

- FY2021: 24.4% 

- FY2022: 17.3% 

- FY2023: 14.6% 

- FY2024: 12.6% 

- FY2025: 13.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in real estate development; annual sales are CNY 154.2 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2025: revenue 154248365000; grossProfit 20760868000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 001979.SHE: China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells residential properties in China. It operates in three segments: Development Business, Asset Operation, and Property Services. The company is involved in residential real estate development and construction; real estate investment; construction management; property management; elderly care; operation and management of commercial offices, apartments, hotels, industrial parks, and other properties; and exhibition and cruise ship operation. It also engages in investment and business management consulting; development and management of automotive parks; capital market, agency, and business services; and property leasing activities. The company was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of China Merchants Group Limited.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 12.6% to 14.6% during 2023–25; it earns 10.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 14.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 12.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 13.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.19432136491411714],[2017,0.1363153278081039],[2018,0.18802175739525318],[2019,0.14738293304485883],[2020,0.12786615224373962],[2021,0.08990212085607892],[2022,0.056137799138200224],[2023,0.0454117467428152],[2024,0.03134812147606966],[2025,0.021775385351510974]]; median 0.10888413654990928. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 7.8 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2016: growth capex 646125000; upkeep 670582000; owner earnings 9581417000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0674352238296277.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2017: growth capex 725197615.58107; upkeep 1765878384.41893; owner earnings 11739353615.58107. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.061774918733051076.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2018: growth capex 650503333.8105564; upkeep 2119579666.1894436; owner earnings 14000389333.810556. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04646323172167853.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2019: growth capex 497319464.418931; upkeep 7611055535.581069; owner earnings 9537343464.41893. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.052144443185283836.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2020: growth capex 1677920282.4075136; upkeep 2555493717.5924864; owner earnings 11083911282.407513. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1513834096697187.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2021: growth capex 1797761626.050065; upkeep 8209714373.949935; owner earnings 3448302811.008065. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.521346797129024.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2022: growth capex 1429213997.8917475; upkeep 4582982002.108253; owner earnings 2978685499.3291044. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.47981366217200583.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6590580000; owner earnings 3212832186.9615026. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2024: growth capex 299189286.89430904; upkeep 5403385713.105691; owner earnings 1292960458.733818. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.23139863626402143.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3482511000; owner earnings 1397555449.812. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,4759250000],[2017,4153125000],[2018,11032991000],[2019,6105287000],[2020,6422684000],[2021,4953023000],[2022,4179113000],[2023,10582322000],[2024,11157297000],[2025,1749929000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 7843130000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 64.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 001979.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 64.529 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 0.9% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 11.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:56.163Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.00014706360427091392. Price 7.32; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.5250028899121455 → FY2025 0.1550113943896864. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 16.87 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 19.30 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 16.39 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 16.64 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 17.13 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 17.60 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 19.12 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 20.06 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 21.36 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 19.42 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 18.97 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 18.28 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 18.17 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 19.52 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 19.56 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 25.78 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 21.87 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 21.80 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 21.51 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 21.19 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 19.05 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 19.02 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 18.00 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 18.69 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 18.80 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 18.84 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 17.35 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 19.27 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 21.20 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 23.04 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 22.00 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 21.72 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 20.90 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 20.63 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 19.75 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 18.99 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 18.72 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 18.11 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 19.87 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 18.14 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 17.34 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 16.40 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 17.14 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 16.05 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 16.44 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 17.08 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 16.70 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 15.14 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 14.06 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 14.66 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 13.29 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 11.82 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 12.86 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 12.27 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 11.62 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 11.60 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 10.95 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 9.36 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 9.96 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 12.94 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 10.43 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 11.45 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 13.34 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 13.55 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 13.55 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 15.16 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 15.67 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 12.50 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 13.43 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 13.70 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 14.62 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 16.34 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 13.11 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 15.30 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 12.63 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 14.85 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 14.83 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 13.62 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 13.66 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 12.68 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 13.03 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 14.25 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 13.66 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 12.39 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 11.04 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 10.42 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 9.53 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 8.77 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 9.42 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 9.45 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 8.47 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 9.65 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 8.79 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 8.79 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 9.23 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 12.25 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 11.29 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 11.78 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 10.24 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 9.78 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 9.82 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 9.17 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 9.15 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 8.68 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 8.77 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 8.70 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 9.15 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 10.17 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 9.45 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 9.26 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 8.64 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 10.57 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 9.91 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 8.41 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 8.70 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 8.82 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 6.43 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 6.95 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 6.53 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 7.58 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 7.43 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 13.45 per share, central CNY 14.51 per share, high CNY 15.91 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 13.77 per share, central CNY 14.93 per share, high CNY 16.48 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 25.51 per share, central CNY 27.93 per share, high CNY 31.16 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 26.09 per share, central CNY 28.56 per share, high CNY 31.84 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 32.88 per share, central CNY 36.11 per share, high CNY 40.40 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 32.03 per share, central CNY 35.08 per share, high CNY 39.15 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 27.11 per share, central CNY 30.16 per share, high CNY 34.22 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 11.07 per share, central CNY 11.70 per share, high CNY 12.53 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 14.27 per share, central CNY 14.82 per share, high CNY 15.54 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 6.36 per share, central CNY 6.78 per share, high CNY 7.34 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:41:38.219Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.