# Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology (002415.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/002415.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 33.86 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 23.38 per share, central CNY 31.31 per share, high CNY 36.07 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 31.31 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.4% at the stated quote. About 9.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.21×

- FY2017: 0.25×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.24×

- FY2020: 0.24×

- FY2021: 0.23×

- FY2022: 0.18×

- FY2023: 0.18×

- FY2024: 0.15×

- FY2025: 0.18×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 44.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 26.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 43.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 43.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 44.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 40.4%

- FY2017: 53.8%

- FY2018: 76.7%

- FY2019: 50.1%

- FY2020: 56.2%

- FY2021: 48.4%

- FY2022: 34.3%

- FY2023: 39.9%

- FY2024: 25.9%

- FY2025: 26.6%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.86×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 60B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 70B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 23.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 10.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 42.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.80×

- FY2023: 0.87×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.85×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 53.8% vs 26.6%

- Per-share earnings: 0.81 to 1.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- Market cap gain: CNY 128B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 50B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.1%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.2%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.71

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.81

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.05

- Average buyback yield: 0.3%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: CNY 1.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 124B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 53.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 26.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.81

- FY2017: CNY 1.02

- FY2018: CNY 1.23

- FY2019: CNY 1.38

- FY2020: CNY 1.45

- FY2021: CNY 1.81

- FY2022: CNY 1.37

- FY2023: CNY 1.52

- FY2024: CNY 1.30

- FY2025: CNY 1.55

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.64×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.79×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 2.9%

- FY2017: 4.0%

- FY2018: 3.5%

- FY2019: 6.2%

- FY2020: -3.0%

- FY2021: 3.9%

- FY2022: 2.2%

- FY2023: -1.8%

- FY2024: -1.0%

- FY2025: -8.1%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 35% since Dec 2021 · sales +0%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:58.517Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 7.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +0%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 32B 

- FY2017: CNY 42B 

- FY2018: CNY 50B 

- FY2019: CNY 58B 

- FY2020: CNY 64B 

- FY2021: CNY 81B 

- FY2022: CNY 83B 

- FY2023: CNY 89B 

- FY2024: CNY 92B 

- FY2025: CNY 93B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 43.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 41.4% 

- FY2017: 43.6% 

- FY2018: 44.4% 

- FY2019: 45.6% 

- FY2020: 46.0% 

- FY2021: 43.8% 

- FY2022: 41.7% 

- FY2023: 43.8% 

- FY2024: 43.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in computer hardware; annual sales are CNY 92.5 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2025: revenue 92517541000; grossProfit 92517541000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002415.SHE: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd. provides machine perception and artificial intelligence technologies worldwide. The company offers cameras, including network, Turbo HD, and PTZ cameras; explosion-proof and anti-corrosion series; and CCTV accessories. It also provides video recorders and serves comprising network recorders, DVRs, DeepinMind intelligence, storage, servers, and kits; access control systems that include face recognition terminals, card terminals, readers, controllers, payment terminals, visitor terminals, electrical locks, and one-door access control system kits; speed gates and turnstiles; and video intercom products. In addition, the company offers interactive flat panel displays; LED displays; LCD video walls, monitors, and controllers; alarm systems, such as wired and wireless intrusion alarms, and intrusion accessories; networking products, including switches, wireless bridges, routers, wireless access points, and accessories; security and thermography thermal cameras; parking management products comprising vehicle access control management, parking guidance, and on-street parking cameras; traffic cameras, traffic servers, radars, mobile enforcement systems, supplement lights, signal control series, and traffic accessories; and portable products and enterprise PDAs. Further, it provides onboard security; security inspections products, such as x-ray inspection systems, detectors, millimeter wave security inspection, and intelligent security analyzers; audio products, including public address systems, security audio products, and audio accessories; acoustic and laser sensing products; auxiliary care and security radars; fire alarm systems, fusion detection cameras, and standalone detectors; and Hik-Connect, Hik-Partner Pro, HikCentral Professional, HikCentral Access Control, and HikCentral Focsign software. The company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 43.4% to 100% during 2023–25; it earns 44.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 43.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 43.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 100%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.40429632957854966],[2017,0.538404453934908],[2018,0.7666748935022495],[2019,0.5008228460966554],[2020,0.5617423930213998],[2021,0.4841465847740098],[2022,0.3433997317097171],[2023,0.39938168722740897],[2024,0.2590792381221227],[2025,0.26588234226464413]]; median 0.4442214571762797. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 1.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2016: growth capex 669714274.0997521; upkeep 241662201.77024794; owner earnings 7422885798.229752. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09022289878950704.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2017: growth capex 993994640.5511163; upkeep 698198563.4388837; owner earnings 9053929855.561117. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.10978598867105024.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2018: growth capex 813618432.6185136; upkeep 1242240874.5914865; owner earnings 10589571125.408514. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07683204758560291.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2019: growth capex 837691178.9288998; upkeep 1089587739.9311001; owner earnings 11999790260.0689. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06980881838547151.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2020: growth capex 640519087.8855565; upkeep 1363109182.1144435; owner earnings 12823065817.885557. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.049950542014076164.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2021: growth capex 2029368377.9914496; upkeep 1068942477.0085504; owner earnings 16493615147.14945. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12303963442133425.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2022: growth capex 214731988.9976344; upkeep 3540949011.0023656; owner earnings 10249094804.031635. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.020951312589397295.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2023: growth capex 848873130.1516647; upkeep 3198942869.8483353; owner earnings 12241817956.925665. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06934208081990181.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2024: growth capex 501772647.6199198; upkeep 4163969352.38008; owner earnings 9308761097.68392. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.053903268367770665.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2025: growth capex 4044240.708220005; upkeep 3618002423.96178; owner earnings 12080878382.80622. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0003347637961471295.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,2930913722.75],[2017,3797389224.8],[2018,4701738534.32],[2019,5601261827],[2020,6540392033],[2021,7458057406],[2022,8731399000],[2023,6889290000],[2024,8666669000],[2025,10265229240.89]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1568035614.7816663 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 61.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002415.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 61.104 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.7% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:58.271Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.12432311792632944. Price 33.86; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6074680794034386 → FY2025 1.31571318582822. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 16.36 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 16.67 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 15.87 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 17.42 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 18.65 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 21.27 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 24.38 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 26.50 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 32.30 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 30.00 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 32.15 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 32.00 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 39.28 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 37.01 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 39.00 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 39.90 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 42.57 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 41.30 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 38.50 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 39.15 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 37.13 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 34.58 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 31.45 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 28.74 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 24.20 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 27.17 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 25.76 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 30.03 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 34.50 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 35.07 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 32.68 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 24.84 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 27.58 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 30.87 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 30.92 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 32.30 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 32.35 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 31.41 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 32.74 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 36.00 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 35.00 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 27.90 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 32.06 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 27.47 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 30.35 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 36.99 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 37.42 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 38.11 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 44.90 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 45.67 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 48.51 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 63.00 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 55.56 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 55.90 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 62.78 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 64.58 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 64.50 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 61.00 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 51.40 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 55.00 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 52.26 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 48.64 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 52.32 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 47.46 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 48.20 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 41.00 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 42.49 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 33.40 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 36.20 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 31.94 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 29.87 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 30.42 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 28.42 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 31.51 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 34.68 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 35.85 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 38.38 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 42.66 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 37.75 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 34.86 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 33.11 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 36.32 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 35.28 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 33.80 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 36.45 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 34.79 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 34.72 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 31.92 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 34.95 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 32.16 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 33.11 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 32.61 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 30.91 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 29.07 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 26.72 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 32.29 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 30.11 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 30.08 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 30.70 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 29.03 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 30.14 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 30.70 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 28.21 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 28.13 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 27.73 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 28.10 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 31.17 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 31.52 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 32.87 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 30.02 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 29.84 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 31.33 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 31.44 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 30.42 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 36.29 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 30.56 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 34.20 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 37.65 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 35.79 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 32.46 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 33.62 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 14.01 per share, central CNY 19.40 per share, high CNY 22.54 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 16.00 per share, central CNY 22.14 per share, high CNY 25.71 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 18.91 per share, central CNY 25.83 per share, high CNY 29.86 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 23.05 per share, central CNY 32.30 per share, high CNY 37.45 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 24.94 per share, central CNY 34.68 per share, high CNY 40.12 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 30.07 per share, central CNY 42.23 per share, high CNY 49.01 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 30.20 per share, central CNY 42.18 per share, high CNY 48.86 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 31.58 per share, central CNY 42.90 per share, high CNY 49.50 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 21.99 per share, central CNY 29.26 per share, high CNY 33.69 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 22.22 per share, central CNY 29.73 per share, high CNY 34.23 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.