# Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries (002466.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/002466.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z. Financial observations: FY2007–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 36.80 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 11.24 per share, central CNY 12.64 per share, high CNY 14.51 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 12.64 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.2% at the stated quote. About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 3

- Operating margin variation: 1.67×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.57×

- FY2017: 0.63×

- FY2018: 0.57×

- FY2019: -0.94×

- FY2020: -0.32×

- FY2021: 0.52×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.11×

- FY2025: 0.30×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 25.8pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -6.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 25.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 64.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 38.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 29.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 30.6%

- FY2017: 32.7%

- FY2018: 7.4%

- FY2019: -18.3%

- FY2020: -6.2%

- FY2021: 11.2%

- FY2022: 70.3%

- FY2023: 48.9%

- FY2024: 1.9%

- FY2025: 4.5%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.69×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 18B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 26B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 8.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 26.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.48×

- FY2024: 1.48×

- FY2025: 0.22×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 30.6% vs 4.5%

- Per-share earnings: 1.15 to 0.28 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- Market cap gain: CNY 59B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 14B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -16.1%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.87

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 1.15

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.28

- Average buyback yield: 0.2%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 5.1B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 24B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 30.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.5%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 1.15

- FY2017: CNY 1.62

- FY2018: CNY 1.60

- FY2019: CNY -4.65

- FY2020: CNY -1.26

- FY2021: CNY 1.40

- FY2022: CNY 14.68

- FY2023: CNY 4.45

- FY2024: CNY -4.82

- FY2025: CNY 0.28

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: -3.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.49×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.4%

- FY2017: -5.3%

- FY2018: -3.2%

- FY2019: -17.9%

- FY2020: -6.0%

- FY2021: -0.0%

- FY2022: 5.4%

- FY2023: -21.0%

- FY2024: -19.6%

- FY2025: -3.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 71% since Jun 2022 · sales -20.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:06.589Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 15.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -20.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 3.9B 

- FY2017: CNY 5.5B 

- FY2018: CNY 6.2B 

- FY2019: CNY 4.8B 

- FY2020: CNY 3.2B 

- FY2021: CNY 7.7B 

- FY2022: CNY 40B 

- FY2023: CNY 41B 

- FY2024: CNY 13B 

- FY2025: CNY 10B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 38.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 71.2% 

- FY2017: 70.1% 

- FY2018: 67.5% 

- FY2019: 56.5% 

- FY2020: 40.9% 

- FY2021: 61.7% 

- FY2022: 85.1% 

- FY2023: 83.2% 

- FY2024: 40.6% 

- FY2025: 38.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in specialty chemicals; annual sales are CNY 10.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2025: revenue 10345126605; grossProfit 4010502345; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 38.8% to 83.2% during 2023–25; it earns 9.3% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 83.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 40.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 38.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.30619567370567397],[2017,0.3268371590694213],[2018,0.07416622443057201],[2019,-0.18312923870286626],[2020,-0.061634715218378884],[2021,0.11159883976896975],[2022,0.7032307675743801],[2023,0.48897886124307477],[2024,0.019157261826808266],[2025,0.04505249793626111]]; median 0.09288253209977088. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2016: growth capex 62270296; upkeep 199919560; owner earnings 1512050940. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04118267073727027.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2017: growth capex 1270433000.6444585; upkeep 289093547.35554147; owner earnings 2090419315.6444585. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6077407490146516.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2021: growth capex 598860830; upkeep 409803224; owner earnings 2038768829.568. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.29373650475463375.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2022: growth capex 1126716067; upkeep 589317000; owner earnings 24070940419.054. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.046808144899404.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2023: growth capex 107674862.34286404; upkeep 4335311137.657136; owner earnings 3484767070.274864. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03089872584636513.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 3603413453; owner earnings 100119563.35056293. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,142637305],[2017,334198167],[2018,512068730],[2019,1426965778],[2020,800469133],[2021,1164987813],[2022,1220931108],[2023,5576613000],[2024,2934238000],[2025,752049284.58]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 33.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002466.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 33.157 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 15.2% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 12.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:36:02.096Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.20627780767383352. Price 36.8; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.23638841318203768 → FY2025 0.06106932249266575. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 29.80 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 28.32 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 24.34 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 25.98 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 27.42 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 32.41 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 36.16 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 33.34 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 40.77 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 49.51 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 52.37 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 52.73 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 57.00 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 45.88 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 44.63 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 43.97 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 51.59 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 49.40 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 44.12 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 46.12 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 41.59 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 38.92 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 30.66 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 31.90 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 24.44 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 26.65 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 24.59 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 22.56 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 31.12 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 29.49 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 24.85 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 23.27 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 21.20 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 19.53 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 19.25 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 22.81 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 21.09 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 25.05 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 30.18 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 30.82 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 31.72 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 18.45 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 16.56 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 19.89 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 22.95 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 25.30 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 22.70 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 19.88 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 19.80 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 27.83 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 39.27 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 59.95 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 44.92 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 37.78 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 48.38 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 57.00 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 62.02 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 104.23 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 136.25 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 101.58 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 94.26 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 118.06 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 107.00 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 88.40 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 100.38 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 81.39 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 76.43 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 98.33 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 124.80 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 115.50 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 114.24 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 100.40 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 95.55 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 90.13 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 78.99 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 95.98 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 81.99 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 75.52 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 71.26 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 71.94 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 69.91 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 66.55 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 57.57 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 54.93 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 55.00 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 50.08 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 55.79 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 46.50 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 53.63 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 47.97 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 39.51 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 36.08 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 29.91 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 29.26 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 26.28 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 35.20 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 35.95 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 38.18 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 33.00 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 30.58 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 32.42 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 30.32 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 28.81 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 28.94 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 32.04 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 38.23 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 43.96 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 47.57 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 53.40 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 55.03 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 55.38 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 54.55 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 56.60 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 55.48 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 80.03 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 62.88 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 61.32 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 45.35 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 49.90 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 40.25 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 38.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 4.90 per share, central CNY 5.43 per share, high CNY 6.13 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 13.38 per share, central CNY 17.36 per share, high CNY 19.67 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 11.57 per share, central CNY 15.94 per share, high CNY 18.48 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 10.20 per share, central CNY 11.13 per share, high CNY 12.38 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 34.26 per share, central CNY 46.64 per share, high CNY 53.85 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 10.92 per share, central CNY 12.25 per share, high CNY 13.73 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 6.45 per share, central CNY 7.27 per share, high CNY 8.36 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

Sichuan Tianqi Lithium Industries

002466 · SHE

CSI 300

Not a wonderful business

4 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: CNY 36.80
Buy up to: CNY 12.64
Expected / yr: 5.2% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
Are managers owners
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

3 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and margins varied 166.5% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 54.3%
Worst year: -93.8%
Latest · 2025: 29.8%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 9.3% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -6.2% (minimum 10%), and gross margin fell 25.8 percentage points (limit 4).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 9.3%
Worst year: -18.3%
Latest · 2025: 4.5%

Each $1 of profit left $0.69 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 8.1% (minimum 12%).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.69×
Annual median: 0.98×
Latest · 2025: 0.22×

Per-share value fell from 1.15 to 0.28, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive), and share growth was 2.3% over ten years and 2.5% over five (either must be at most 1% a year).

Earnings per share

10y median: CNY 1.28
Worst year: CNY -4.82
Latest · 2025: CNY 0.28

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -3.5% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: -4.4%
Worst year: 5.4%
Latest · 2025: -3.5%

Profit record · fail 3 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 33.2%, three-year average owner earnings per share -1.65 CNY. 3 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Three-year average owner earnings per share is not positive.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-10 · Price CNY 29.80 · Value 5.43 · Buy at or below 5.43; 2016-11 · Price CNY 28.32 · Value 5.43 · Buy at or below 5.43; 2016-12 · Price CNY 24.34 · Value 5.43 · Buy at or below 5.43; 2017-01 · Price CNY 25.98 · Value 5.43 · Buy at or below 5.43; 2017-02 · Price CNY 27.42 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-03 · Price CNY 32.41 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-04 · Price CNY 36.16 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-05 · Price CNY 33.34 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-06 · Price CNY 40.77 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-07 · Price CNY 49.51 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-08 · Price CNY 52.37 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-09 · Price CNY 52.73 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-10 · Price CNY 57.00 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-11 · Price CNY 45.88 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2017-12 · Price CNY 44.63 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2018-01 · Price CNY 43.97 · Value 17.36 · Buy at or below 17.36; 2018-02 · Price CNY 51.59 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-03 · Price CNY 49.40 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-04 · Price CNY 44.12 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-05 · Price CNY 46.12 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-06 · Price CNY 41.59 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-07 · Price CNY 38.92 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-08 · Price CNY 30.66 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-09 · Price CNY 31.90 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-10 · Price CNY 24.44 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-11 · Price CNY 26.65 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2018-12 · Price CNY 24.59 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2019-01 · Price CNY 22.56 · Value 15.94 · Buy at or below 15.94; 2019-02 · Price CNY 31.12 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-03 · Price CNY 29.49 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-04 · Price CNY 24.85 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-05 · Price CNY 23.27 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-06 · Price CNY 21.20 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-07 · Price CNY 19.53 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-08 · Price CNY 19.25 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-09 · Price CNY 22.81 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-10 · Price CNY 21.09 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-11 · Price CNY 25.05 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2019-12 · Price CNY 30.18 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2020-01 · Price CNY 30.82 · Value 11.13 · Buy at or below 11.13; 2020-02 · Price CNY 31.72; 2020-03 · Price CNY 18.45; 2020-04 · Price CNY 16.56; 2020-05 · Price CNY 19.89; 2020-06 · Price CNY 22.95; 2020-07 · Price CNY 25.30; 2020-08 · Price CNY 22.70; 2020-09 · Price CNY 19.88; 2020-10 · Price CNY 19.80; 2020-11 · Price CNY 27.83; 2020-12 · Price CNY 39.27; 2021-01 · Price CNY 59.95; 2021-02 · Price CNY 44.92; 2021-03 · Price CNY 37.78; 2021-04 · Price CNY 48.38; 2021-05 · Price CNY 57.00; 2021-06 · Price CNY 62.02; 2021-07 · Price CNY 104.23; 2021-08 · Price CNY 136.25; 2021-09 · Price CNY 101.58; 2021-10 · Price CNY 94.26; 2021-11 · Price CNY 118.06; 2021-12 · Price CNY 107.00; 2022-01 · Price CNY 88.40; 2022-02 · Price CNY 100.38; 2022-03 · Price CNY 81.39; 2022-04 · Price CNY 76.43; 2022-05 · Price CNY 98.33; 2022-06 · Price CNY 124.80; 2022-07 · Price CNY 115.50; 2022-08 · Price CNY 114.24; 2022-09 · Price CNY 100.40; 2022-10 · Price CNY 95.55; 2022-11 · Price CNY 90.13; 2022-12 · Price CNY 78.99; 2023-01 · Price CNY 95.98 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-02 · Price CNY 81.99 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-03 · Price CNY 75.52 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-04 · Price CNY 71.26 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-05 · Price CNY 71.94 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-06 · Price CNY 69.91 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-07 · Price CNY 66.55 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-08 · Price CNY 57.57 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-09 · Price CNY 54.93 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-10 · Price CNY 55.00 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-11 · Price CNY 50.08 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2023-12 · Price CNY 55.79 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2024-01 · Price CNY 46.50 · Value 46.64 · Buy at or below 46.64; 2024-02 · Price CNY 53.63 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-03 · Price CNY 47.97 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-04 · Price CNY 39.51 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-05 · Price CNY 36.08 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-06 · Price CNY 29.91 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-07 · Price CNY 29.26 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-08 · Price CNY 26.28 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-09 · Price CNY 35.20 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-10 · Price CNY 35.95 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-11 · Price CNY 38.18 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2024-12 · Price CNY 33.00 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2025-01 · Price CNY 30.58 · Value 12.25 · Buy at or below 12.25; 2025-02 · Price CNY 32.42 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-03 · Price CNY 30.32 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-04 · Price CNY 28.81 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-05 · Price CNY 28.94 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-06 · Price CNY 32.04 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-07 · Price CNY 38.23 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-08 · Price CNY 43.96 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-09 · Price CNY 47.57 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-10 · Price CNY 53.40 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-11 · Price CNY 55.03 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2025-12 · Price CNY 55.38 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2026-01 · Price CNY 54.55 · Value 7.27 · Buy at or below 7.27; 2026-02 · Price CNY 56.60 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-03 · Price CNY 55.48 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-04 · Price CNY 80.03 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-05 · Price CNY 62.88 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-06 · Price CNY 61.32 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-07 · Price CNY 45.35 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-08 · Price CNY 49.90 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-09 · Price CNY 40.25 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-10 · Price CNY 38.50 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64; 2026-10 · Price CNY 36.80 · Value 12.64 · Buy at or below 12.64

CNY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	CNY 11.24 – CNY 14.51
Buy at or below	Central value CNY 12.64
Discount to value	1 − 36.80 / 12.64 = -191.1%
Return / year	About 5.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash CNY 0.93/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash CNY 1.05/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueCNY 10B

Revenue

Owner earningsCNY 100M

Owner earnings

Operating margin29.8%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtCNY -9.8B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares1.6B

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2025