# Guosen Securities (002736.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/002736.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z. Financial observations: FY2005–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 9.98 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 8.20 per share, central CNY 9.33 per share, high CNY 10.84 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 9.33 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.5% at the stated quote. About 9.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.34×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.49×

- FY2017: 0.52×

- FY2018: 0.30×

- FY2019: 0.35×

- FY2020: 0.38×

- FY2021: 0.45×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.30×

- FY2024: 0.35×

- FY2025: 0.78×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.8%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 5

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.4%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 30.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.7 pp

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.6%

- FY2017: 15.9%

- FY2018: 7.8%

- FY2019: 31.4%

- FY2020: 38.7%

- FY2021: 5.9%

- FY2022: 3.2%

- FY2023: 2.7%

- FY2024: 3.2%

- FY2025: 56.8%

### economics: fail

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.02×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 43B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 42B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 235.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1767.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 118.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.99×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 1.03×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.8% vs 3.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.54 to 0.72 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 4.0%

- Market cap gain: CNY 14B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 17B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 2.9%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 3.6%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.18

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.54

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.72

- Average buyback yield: 3.8%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 161M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 66B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 3.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.54

- FY2017: CNY 0.51

- FY2018: CNY 0.40

- FY2019: CNY 0.60

- FY2020: CNY 0.73

- FY2021: CNY 0.79

- FY2022: CNY 0.52

- FY2023: CNY 0.54

- FY2024: CNY 0.72

- FY2025: CNY 1.01

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.04×

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.54×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.01×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 6.1%

- FY2017: 13.8%

- FY2018: 3.7%

- FY2019: -10.6%

- FY2020: 3.3%

- FY2021: 4.6%

- FY2022: 3.4%

- FY2023: 11.7%

- FY2024: -5.1%

- FY2025: -1.0%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 33% since Aug 2025 · sales -9.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.770Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 1.7% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -9.2%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 12B 

- FY2017: CNY 12B 

- FY2018: CNY 14B 

- FY2019: CNY 18B 

- FY2020: CNY 22B 

- FY2021: CNY 28B 

- FY2022: CNY 21B 

- FY2023: CNY 23B 

- FY2024: CNY 26B 

- FY2025: CNY 24B 

### Gross margin · FY2024

gross margin 76%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2018: 67.4% 

- FY2019: 75.8% 

- FY2020: 82.6% 

- FY2021: 81.8% 

- FY2022: 74.6% 

- FY2023: 74.5% 

- FY2024: 76.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in financial conglomerates; annual sales are CNY 23.7 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2025: revenue 23702696681.03; operatingIncome 18555212790.91; margin = operatingIncome / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002736.SHE: Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments. The company offers securities brokerage, futures brokerage, agency sales of financial products, asset custody, investment consulting, margin trading, and other capital intermediary services, as well as stock underwriting and sponsorship, bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring services. It also engages in the investment and trading of equity, fixed income, alternative investment, derivatives, and other financial products; and development of asset management products, including asset management, private equity fund management, and fund management business. Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Shenzhen Guotou Securities Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 30.2% to 78.3% during 2023–25; it earns 6.8% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2023: operatingIncome / revenue = 30.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2024: operatingIncome / revenue = 34.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2025: operatingIncome / revenue = 78.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04562571993464451],[2017,0.15858069734030458],[2018,0.07795586189115918],[2019,0.31399033360161366],[2020,0.3874249564882856],[2021,0.058533641603822316],[2022,0.03242179309915019],[2023,0.026673454121493658],[2024,0.03196314658343813],[2025,0.5675884496862881]]; median 0.06824475174749074. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back CNY 5.5 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 482139489; owner earnings 4217101511. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 421852128; owner earnings 4333503872. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2018: growth capex 133132344.89999998; upkeep 209168000; owner earnings 3423397000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03888895880320044.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2019: growth capex 218561000; upkeep 213613000; owner earnings 4910187000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04451174670129671.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2020: growth capex 518650000; upkeep 221421000; owner earnings 6615739000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.07839638171941185.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2021: growth capex 178422000; upkeep 425483000; owner earnings 10114759000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.017639767788832143.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 595852178; owner earnings 6052829822. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 415440750; owner earnings 6617103250. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 326724796.7; owner earnings 8482238203.3. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 346342780.4; owner earnings 11318640725.24. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,8103875942],[2017,5115447852],[2018,4274886450],[2019,4054231000],[2020,4165034000],[2021,4645217000],[2022,8087337460],[2023,6206000493.1],[2024,7048733592],[2025,7841895721.23]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 5479455896.658334 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 55.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002736.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 55.469 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 1.7% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 4.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:07.809Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.011926918715936131. Price 9.98; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.69219765218308 → FY2025 1.03242787320241. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2016-10: CNY 17.13 per share

- 2016-11: CNY 17.68 per share

- 2016-12: CNY 15.55 per share

- 2017-01: CNY 15.14 per share

- 2017-02: CNY 15.25 per share

- 2017-03: CNY 14.58 per share

- 2017-04: CNY 13.78 per share

- 2017-05: CNY 13.35 per share

- 2017-06: CNY 13.25 per share

- 2017-07: CNY 14.24 per share

- 2017-08: CNY 14.30 per share

- 2017-09: CNY 13.69 per share

- 2017-10: CNY 13.05 per share

- 2017-11: CNY 12.38 per share

- 2017-12: CNY 10.85 per share

- 2018-01: CNY 11.73 per share

- 2018-02: CNY 10.86 per share

- 2018-03: CNY 10.87 per share

- 2018-04: CNY 10.75 per share

- 2018-05: CNY 10.01 per share

- 2018-06: CNY 9.10 per share

- 2018-07: CNY 9.05 per share

- 2018-08: CNY 8.40 per share

- 2018-09: CNY 8.44 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 8.38 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 8.97 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 8.37 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 8.36 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 11.38 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 13.54 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 12.34 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 11.93 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 13.16 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 13.63 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 12.92 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 12.28 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 12.23 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 11.36 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 12.55 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 12.32 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 11.77 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 11.09 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 10.69 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 10.60 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 11.31 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 13.20 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 14.04 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 13.45 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 13.35 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 13.74 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 13.64 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 12.76 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 12.19 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 11.96 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 10.50 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 11.20 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 10.75 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 10.58 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 12.20 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 11.82 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 11.40 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 11.03 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 11.48 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 10.96 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 10.35 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 9.94 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 9.70 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 9.13 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 9.57 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 9.20 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 9.25 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 8.60 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 8.62 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 9.13 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 8.88 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 9.38 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 9.66 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 9.37 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 9.41 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 9.21 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 8.73 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 9.69 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 9.28 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 9.21 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 9.61 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 9.50 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 8.54 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 8.03 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 8.62 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 8.38 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 8.99 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 8.94 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 8.69 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 8.84 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 9.04 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 11.83 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 11.56 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 11.49 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 11.20 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 10.33 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 10.44 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 10.26 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 10.87 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 11.23 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 11.52 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 13.26 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 14.83 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 13.53 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 14.04 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 12.96 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 13.12 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 12.54 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 12.56 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 11.21 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 10.72 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 10.12 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 9.99 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 10.32 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 10.25 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 9.80 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 10.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2016: low CNY 5.50 per share, central CNY 6.26 per share, high CNY 7.27 per share

- FY2017: low CNY 5.28 per share, central CNY 6.00 per share, high CNY 6.97 per share

- FY2018: low CNY 6.87 per share, central CNY 7.82 per share, high CNY 9.08 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 8.14 per share, central CNY 9.27 per share, high CNY 10.76 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 9.31 per share, central CNY 12.41 per share, high CNY 14.53 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 8.92 per share, central CNY 12.75 per share, high CNY 14.97 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 6.82 per share, central CNY 9.46 per share, high CNY 11.09 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 7.33 per share, central CNY 10.06 per share, high CNY 11.80 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 7.48 per share, central CNY 8.51 per share, high CNY 9.89 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 7.68 per share, central CNY 8.74 per share, high CNY 10.15 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:50.648Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.