# Avary Holding Shenzhen (002938.SHE)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/002938.SHE

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: CNY. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: CNY 75.26 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low CNY 20.46 per share, central CNY 23.11 per share, high CNY 26.18 per share. Buy at or below the central value CNY 23.11 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.8% at the stated quote. About 4.8% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; CN 10-year bond 1.7% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.07×

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.13×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.11×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- Recent gross margin fell 9.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 9.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 11.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 14.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 12.3%

- FY2017: 13.4%

- FY2018: 22.3%

- FY2019: 19.8%

- FY2020: 15.5%

- FY2021: 13.6%

- FY2022: 21.9%

- FY2023: 14.4%

- FY2024: 16.4%

- FY2025: 14.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.72×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 14B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 19B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 9.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 12.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.05×

- FY2022: 0.97×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 1.04×

- FY2025: 0.57×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.4% vs 14.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.90 to 1.56 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- Market cap gain: CNY 81B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 14B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 7.1%

- Per-share value change: CNY 0.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 1.56

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 0.1%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 2.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 30B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.59

- FY2017: CNY 0.95

- FY2018: CNY 1.32

- FY2019: CNY 1.26

- FY2020: CNY 1.26

- FY2021: CNY 1.42

- FY2022: CNY 2.16

- FY2023: CNY 1.42

- FY2024: CNY 1.56

- FY2025: CNY 1.61

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.89×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.95×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.05×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -3.9%

- FY2017: 0.7%

- FY2018: -12.6%

- FY2019: -4.3%

- FY2020: -7.0%

- FY2021: -2.8%

- FY2022: -15.3%

- FY2023: -11.1%

- FY2024: -7.8%

- FY2025: -7.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 29% since Jun 2026 · sales +11.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:00.752Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 18.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +11.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 17B 

- FY2017: CNY 24B 

- FY2018: CNY 26B 

- FY2019: CNY 27B 

- FY2020: CNY 30B 

- FY2021: CNY 33B 

- FY2022: CNY 36B 

- FY2023: CNY 32B 

- FY2024: CNY 35B 

- FY2025: CNY 39B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 11%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 16.1% 

- FY2017: 17.8% 

- FY2018: 22.7% 

- FY2019: 23.2% 

- FY2020: 19.7% 

- FY2021: 19.9% 

- FY2022: 23.7% 

- FY2023: 20.8% 

- FY2024: 20.3% 

- FY2025: 11.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in electronic components; annual sales are CNY 39.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2025: revenue 39147009000; grossProfit 4292775000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 11% to 20.8% during 2023–25; it earns 14.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 20.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 11%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.12328648377990967],[2017,0.13367568766640925],[2018,0.22279645402331943],[2019,0.1975675246762915],[2020,0.15476439708271578],[2021,0.13595798399407205],[2022,0.21859954563915038],[2023,0.14417191435059065],[2024,0.16370335311052622],[2025,0.14194990570443414]]; median 0.14946815571665323. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 95.3% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 9.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2016: growth capex 16770841.493286371; upkeep 1997380499.5067136; owner earnings 139348281.49328637. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.12035197932523028.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2017: growth capex 2035992455; upkeep 1271886545; owner earnings 1827321279. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.1141951217873385.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2018: growth capex 667824290.7206697; upkeep 3370342709.2793303; owner earnings 954467066.7206697. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.699682905786536.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2019: growth capex 261108268.64087296; upkeep 3584322070.359127; owner earnings 1055296347.640873. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.24742648756871324.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2020: growth capex 1164238923.8704987; upkeep 4290481480.1295013; owner earnings 421785546.87049866. Growth capex / owner earnings = 2.760262727134072.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2021: growth capex 1344177965.439165; upkeep 5623463594.560835; owner earnings 170393558.34116507. Growth capex / owner earnings = 7.888666558320401.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2022: growth capex 1228614044.8681426; upkeep 3112917283.1318574; owner earnings 4845265211.098143. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.25357002998597195.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 3512057969; owner earnings 2701812293.448. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 2844036380; owner earnings 3761807556.402. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); FY2025: growth capex 2039282594.2839537; upkeep 4587033844.466046; owner earnings 2138882613.9079537. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9534336204444521.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); Incremental return on capital 0.09687398046408652, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,490305371],[2017,1451097000],[2018,1030667000],[2019,1224177696],[2020,1155715408],[2021,1192311706],[2022,1160577908],[2023,1624306471],[2024,1277219417],[2025,2442681033.74]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 71.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 002938.SHE SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 71.682 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 18.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 0.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:29.259Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2529786448600656. Price 75.26; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.8522164452109089 → FY2025 0.9212801569044536. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (CNY per share)

- 2018-09: CNY 21.26 per share

- 2018-10: CNY 20.62 per share

- 2018-11: CNY 17.60 per share

- 2018-12: CNY 17.52 per share

- 2019-01: CNY 16.72 per share

- 2019-02: CNY 24.22 per share

- 2019-03: CNY 26.74 per share

- 2019-04: CNY 29.36 per share

- 2019-05: CNY 25.19 per share

- 2019-06: CNY 29.36 per share

- 2019-07: CNY 35.24 per share

- 2019-08: CNY 33.93 per share

- 2019-09: CNY 40.12 per share

- 2019-10: CNY 44.15 per share

- 2019-11: CNY 49.40 per share

- 2019-12: CNY 44.90 per share

- 2020-01: CNY 49.89 per share

- 2020-02: CNY 42.21 per share

- 2020-03: CNY 31.77 per share

- 2020-04: CNY 41.80 per share

- 2020-05: CNY 42.01 per share

- 2020-06: CNY 50.00 per share

- 2020-07: CNY 51.00 per share

- 2020-08: CNY 48.83 per share

- 2020-09: CNY 57.20 per share

- 2020-10: CNY 48.35 per share

- 2020-11: CNY 55.65 per share

- 2020-12: CNY 49.67 per share

- 2021-01: CNY 40.20 per share

- 2021-02: CNY 41.12 per share

- 2021-03: CNY 35.70 per share

- 2021-04: CNY 31.17 per share

- 2021-05: CNY 31.55 per share

- 2021-06: CNY 35.88 per share

- 2021-07: CNY 36.87 per share

- 2021-08: CNY 31.70 per share

- 2021-09: CNY 33.33 per share

- 2021-10: CNY 34.99 per share

- 2021-11: CNY 40.24 per share

- 2021-12: CNY 42.43 per share

- 2022-01: CNY 36.31 per share

- 2022-02: CNY 34.61 per share

- 2022-03: CNY 28.82 per share

- 2022-04: CNY 29.47 per share

- 2022-05: CNY 30.34 per share

- 2022-06: CNY 30.21 per share

- 2022-07: CNY 30.70 per share

- 2022-08: CNY 29.66 per share

- 2022-09: CNY 25.91 per share

- 2022-10: CNY 29.75 per share

- 2022-11: CNY 29.00 per share

- 2022-12: CNY 27.44 per share

- 2023-01: CNY 28.83 per share

- 2023-02: CNY 28.44 per share

- 2023-03: CNY 31.02 per share

- 2023-04: CNY 26.11 per share

- 2023-05: CNY 25.42 per share

- 2023-06: CNY 24.29 per share

- 2023-07: CNY 24.51 per share

- 2023-08: CNY 21.39 per share

- 2023-09: CNY 20.36 per share

- 2023-10: CNY 21.42 per share

- 2023-11: CNY 21.55 per share

- 2023-12: CNY 22.32 per share

- 2024-01: CNY 17.51 per share

- 2024-02: CNY 21.08 per share

- 2024-03: CNY 23.20 per share

- 2024-04: CNY 24.14 per share

- 2024-05: CNY 29.90 per share

- 2024-06: CNY 39.76 per share

- 2024-07: CNY 37.28 per share

- 2024-08: CNY 35.80 per share

- 2024-09: CNY 35.77 per share

- 2024-10: CNY 37.53 per share

- 2024-11: CNY 33.56 per share

- 2024-12: CNY 36.48 per share

- 2025-01: CNY 40.49 per share

- 2025-02: CNY 40.04 per share

- 2025-03: CNY 36.28 per share

- 2025-04: CNY 28.57 per share

- 2025-05: CNY 28.27 per share

- 2025-06: CNY 32.03 per share

- 2025-07: CNY 53.00 per share

- 2025-08: CNY 59.80 per share

- 2025-09: CNY 56.07 per share

- 2025-10: CNY 52.55 per share

- 2025-11: CNY 45.13 per share

- 2025-12: CNY 50.58 per share

- 2026-01: CNY 57.07 per share

- 2026-02: CNY 58.99 per share

- 2026-03: CNY 52.17 per share

- 2026-04: CNY 72.05 per share

- 2026-05: CNY 105.01 per share

- 2026-06: CNY 105.38 per share

- 2026-07: CNY 81.50 per share

- 2026-08: CNY 93.30 per share

- 2026-09: CNY 79.55 per share

- 2026-10: CNY 80.53 per share

## Annual estimated value (CNY per share)

- FY2018: low CNY 12.00 per share, central CNY 13.20 per share, high CNY 14.81 per share

- FY2019: low CNY 7.86 per share, central CNY 8.54 per share, high CNY 9.45 per share

- FY2020: low CNY 7.58 per share, central CNY 8.31 per share, high CNY 9.29 per share

- FY2021: low CNY 6.81 per share, central CNY 7.61 per share, high CNY 8.66 per share

- FY2022: low CNY 9.52 per share, central CNY 10.39 per share, high CNY 11.55 per share

- FY2023: low CNY 10.44 per share, central CNY 11.27 per share, high CNY 12.37 per share

- FY2024: low CNY 21.48 per share, central CNY 26.45 per share, high CNY 30.01 per share

- FY2025: low CNY 20.71 per share, central CNY 23.31 per share, high CNY 26.31 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.