# Xinyi Solar Holdings (0968.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/0968.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 1.85 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 5.00 per share, central HKD 5.62 per share, high HKD 6.44 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 5.62 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 31.6% at the stated quote. About 31.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.36×

- FY2020: 0.48×

- FY2021: 0.41×

- FY2022: 0.26×

- FY2023: 0.22×

- FY2024: 0.14×

- FY2025: 0.17×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 13.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.4%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 26.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 15.2%

- FY2020: 22.7%

- FY2021: 17.9%

- FY2022: 13.2%

- FY2023: 12.3%

- FY2024: 5.4%

- FY2025: 6.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.71×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 9.3B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 13B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -1.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -5.0 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.98×

- FY2022: 0.96×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: -1.84×

- FY2025: 0.35×

### management: fail

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 17.9% vs 6.3%

- Per-share earnings: 0.46 to 0.11 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 2.0%

- Per-share value growth: -29.7%

- Per-share value change: CNY -0.35

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 0.46

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.11

- Average buyback yield: 0.0%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 17.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.3%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: CNY 0.27

- FY2020: CNY 0.49

- FY2021: CNY 0.46

- FY2022: CNY 0.37

- FY2023: CNY 0.43

- FY2024: CNY 0.11

- FY2025: CNY 0.09

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.3%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 6.70×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 2.9%

- FY2020: 0.7%

- FY2021: 2.7%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -2.7%

- FY2024: -0.4%

- FY2025: -8.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 89% since Oct 2021 · sales -4.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:11.511Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 16.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.8%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: CNY 8.0B 

- FY2020: CNY 11B 

- FY2021: CNY 13B 

- FY2022: CNY 18B 

- FY2023: CNY 24B 

- FY2024: CNY 22B 

- FY2025: CNY 21B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.4%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: 43.0% 

- FY2020: 53.4% 

- FY2021: 43.9% 

- FY2022: 30.0% 

- FY2023: 26.8% 

- FY2024: 17.6% 

- FY2025: 21.4% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in solar; annual sales are CNY 20.9 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/13X.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2025: revenue 20861164000; grossProfit 4461024000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 0968.HK: Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, produces and sells solar glass products in Mainland China, rest of Asia, North America, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through two segments, Sales of Solar Glass and Renewable Energy Business. It offers ultra-clear patterned solar glasses, back glasses, and anti-reflective coating solar glasses. The company also develops, operates, and manages solar farms; and generates solar power. In addition, it offers engineering, procurement, and construction services; solar power systems; and silicon products. Further, the company engages in mining activities and the sale of mining products. Xinyi Solar Holdings Limited was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Wuhu, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 17.6% to 26.8% during 2023–25; it earns 13.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 26.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/13X.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 17.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/13X.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.1524171387982359],[2020,0.22676537251826537],[2021,0.17879327541923684],[2022,0.13228314693796403],[2023,0.12292939901664461],[2024,0.053544758400513],[2025,0.06264096566071974]]; median 0.13228314693796403. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 7 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/HKDCNY.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 1881822752.6666658; owner earnings 874118781.2176242. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/HKDCNY.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2020: growth capex 2086528209.4446576; upkeep 804554935.516031; owner earnings 3942794772.74. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5292003083372886.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/HKDCNY.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2021: growth capex 2841739843.4413805; upkeep 975882516.2068969; owner earnings 3997178518.892842. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.7109364342897799.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/eod/HKDCNY.FOREX (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2022: growth capex 4378026494.85923; upkeep 1336001151.874615; owner earnings 3163160254.6903563. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.3840672436268322.

- Source: https://www.xinyisolar.com/uploadfiles/2025/05/20250506175739643.pdf (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2023: growth capex 7301182000; upkeep 1653922000; owner earnings 3692210874.827052. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.9774553099819892.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/13X.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2531445000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 296403600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,564022431.8850572],[2020,394788737.5667941],[2021,1683258533.3379316],[2022,1529551677.9323072],[2023,1557997000],[2024,1583830000],[2025,153289000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 50.6% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 0968.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 50.602000000000004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 16.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:40:32.184Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.2403167405202397. Price 1.85; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 2.88 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 2.65 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 2.52 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 2.69 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 2.73 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 2.48 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 2.43 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 2.44 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 2.23 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 2.46 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 2.66 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 2.78 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 2.70 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 2.81 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 3.02 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 3.60 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 3.24 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 3.17 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 3.60 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 3.25 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 2.41 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 2.34 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 2.34 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 2.41 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 2.45 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 2.93 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 2.75 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 3.30 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 3.86 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 3.78 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 4.47 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 4.30 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 3.85 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 4.32 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 4.95 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 4.70 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 4.44 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 4.81 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 5.53 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 5.50 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 6.17 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 4.39 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 4.88 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 5.63 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 7.34 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 8.48 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 9.79 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 12.28 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 14.10 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 14.14 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 20.25 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 17.00 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 16.30 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 12.78 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 13.00 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 13.92 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 16.76 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 15.60 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 18.80 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 15.96 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 16.28 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 14.30 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 13.22 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 12.40 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 14.12 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 13.82 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 11.84 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 13.98 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 12.12 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 13.34 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 10.84 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 8.31 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 7.79 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 9.01 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 8.64 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 10.16 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 8.38 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 9.41 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 8.39 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 7.73 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 9.05 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 8.40 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 6.55 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 5.86 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 4.60 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 4.49 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 4.56 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 3.58 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 4.76 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 6.06 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 5.46 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 5.14 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 3.93 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 3.71 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 3.05 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 4.22 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 3.99 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 3.44 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 3.14 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 3.19 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 3.29 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 3.00 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 2.59 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 2.37 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 2.49 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 3.05 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 3.37 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 3.44 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 3.58 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 3.22 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 2.97 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 3.38 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 3.46 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 2.91 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 2.86 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 2.67 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 2.06 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 2.20 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 2.26 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 1.95 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 1.85 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2023: low HKD 6.45 per share, central HKD 7.31 per share, high HKD 8.45 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 5.68 per share, central HKD 6.46 per share, high HKD 7.49 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 5.02 per share, central HKD 5.64 per share, high HKD 6.46 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:46:16.403Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.