# CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1038.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: HKD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 67.40 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 47.51 per share, central HKD 51.04 per share, high HKD 55.74 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 51.04 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.4% at the stated quote. About 7.4% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 7 revenue declines in the last 10 years

- more than 5 revenue declines in ten years

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 7

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.41×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.36×

- FY2017: 0.32×

- FY2018: 0.50×

- FY2019: 0.46×

- FY2020: 0.44×

- FY2021: 0.34×

- FY2022: 0.34×

- FY2023: 0.29×

- FY2024: 0.17×

- FY2025: 0.03×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 50.0pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 1.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 0.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 50.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 53.3%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 3.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.7%

- FY2017: 1.3%

- FY2018: 2.5%

- FY2019: 2.0%

- FY2020: 2.4%

- FY2021: 1.6%

- FY2022: 1.7%

- FY2023: 1.2%

- FY2024: 0.6%

- FY2025: 0.1%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: HKD 40B

- Net income, five-year total: HKD 40B

- Return on incremental invested capital: -1189.6%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 1.01×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 1.7% vs 0.6%

- Per-share earnings: 3.82 to 3.22 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Market cap gain: HKD -10B

- Cumulative retained earnings: HKD 23B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -2.1%

- Per-share value change: HKD -0.60

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: HKD 3.82

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: HKD 3.22

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -1.00

- Average buyback yield: 6.2%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: HKD 3.5B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: HKD 88B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 1.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 0.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: HKD 3.82

- FY2017: HKD 3.79

- FY2018: HKD 3.82

- FY2019: HKD 4.17

- FY2020: HKD 2.91

- FY2021: HKD 2.98

- FY2022: HKD 3.08

- FY2023: HKD 3.19

- FY2024: HKD 3.22

- FY2025: HKD 3.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.42×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.25×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 5.6%

- FY2017: 4.6%

- FY2018: 4.2%

- FY2019: 1.8%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: -0.2%

- FY2022: 0.4%

- FY2023: 2.5%

- FY2024: 3.9%

- FY2025: 3.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years · sales -11.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:01.907Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.5%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: HKD 5.3B 

- FY2017: HKD 6.0B 

- FY2018: HKD 7.1B 

- FY2019: HKD 6.7B 

- FY2020: HKD 7.2B 

- FY2021: HKD 7.0B 

- FY2022: HKD 6.6B 

- FY2023: HKD 6.0B 

- FY2024: HKD 5.0B 

- FY2025: HKD 4.4B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 3.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 55.7% 

- FY2017: 56.5% 

- FY2018: 53.4% 

- FY2019: 68.7% 

- FY2020: 44.2% 

- FY2021: 34.4% 

- FY2022: 53.3% 

- FY2023: 28.9% 

- FY2024: 53.2% 

- FY2025: 3.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in utilities regulated electric; annual sales are HKD 4.4 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2025: revenue 4418000000; grossProfit 146000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 3.3% to 53.2% during 2023–25; it earns 1.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 53.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 3.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.017402107477737273],[2017,0.013476957400822703],[2018,0.02452736934862569],[2019,0.020430306171889408],[2020,0.023868421721132474],[2021,0.01614659261681951],[2022,0.017186116338441127],[2023,0.011882456196282807],[2024,0.0058571593881775715],[2025,0.000950445195071377]]; median 0.01666635447763032. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 0.9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2016-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 303000000; owner earnings 9559000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2017-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2017: growth capex 23000000; upkeep 231000000; owner earnings 10256000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0022425897035881436.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2018-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2018: growth capex 96000000; upkeep 227000000; owner earnings 10443000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009192760700948004.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 439000000; owner earnings 10331600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 206000000; owner earnings 7502600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 367000000; owner earnings 7510800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 479000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7604800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 342000000; cash acquisitions 599000000; owner earnings 8002400000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07485254423672898.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 379000000; cash acquisitions 1807000000; owner earnings 8047800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2245334128581724.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/1038.HK.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 336000000; cash acquisitions 83000000; owner earnings 8753200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.009482246492711238.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,5492000000],[2017,5795000000],[2018,6022000000],[2019,6123000000],[2020,6198000000],[2021,6249000000],[2022,6324000000],[2023,6400000000],[2024,6475000000],[2025,6526000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 75.7% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1038.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 75.687 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.5% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 2.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:34:40.869Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08000671670342097. Price 67.4; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 4.4092200720715 → FY2025 3.474028407985027. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 63.55 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 64.80 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 61.70 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 62.55 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 63.95 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 61.00 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 68.15 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 67.15 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 65.60 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 72.85 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 70.90 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 67.20 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 67.90 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 66.30 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 67.15 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 69.65 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 65.70 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 64.15 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 62.10 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 59.20 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 58.15 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 58.25 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 57.40 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 62.00 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 57.30 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 59.50 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 59.30 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 63.35 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 65.45 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 64.45 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 63.70 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 60.55 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 63.70 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 60.85 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 52.85 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 52.75 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 56.45 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 53.00 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 55.45 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 54.50 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 53.10 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 41.20 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 46.20 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 38.70 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 39.90 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 40.40 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 41.00 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 36.15 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 36.50 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 39.65 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 41.65 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 41.35 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 44.95 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 46.20 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 47.60 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 48.35 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 46.30 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 46.95 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 47.25 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 43.50 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 46.90 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 45.15 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 49.65 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 48.00 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 48.50 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 52.45 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 52.85 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 52.55 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 48.10 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 49.20 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 47.80 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 40.05 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 37.30 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 39.30 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 40.85 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 43.55 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 41.40 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 42.70 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 44.60 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 43.30 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 41.45 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 41.25 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 39.70 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 37.05 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 36.25 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 38.70 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 43.20 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 46.45 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 46.05 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 45.80 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 44.30 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 45.10 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 44.10 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 52.15 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 57.90 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 53.20 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 55.00 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 53.60 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 57.75 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 53.00 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 53.35 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 46.60 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 52.30 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 50.75 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 51.95 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 55.35 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 52.25 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 51.10 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 50.55 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 53.90 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 57.60 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 64.25 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 66.45 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 62.55 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 65.70 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 59.35 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 59.70 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 62.60 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 65.25 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 65.30 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 67.40 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2016: low HKD 67.92 per share, central HKD 95.04 per share, high HKD 110.83 per share

- FY2017: low HKD 60.80 per share, central HKD 80.83 per share, high HKD 94.09 per share

- FY2018: low HKD 64.05 per share, central HKD 87.83 per share, high HKD 102.64 per share

- FY2019: low HKD 62.35 per share, central HKD 81.11 per share, high HKD 94.14 per share

- FY2020: low HKD 57.06 per share, central HKD 69.35 per share, high HKD 80.01 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 47.82 per share, central HKD 53.97 per share, high HKD 62.17 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 40.10 per share, central HKD 44.65 per share, high HKD 50.70 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 35.02 per share, central HKD 39.13 per share, high HKD 44.62 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 28.08 per share, central HKD 31.51 per share, high HKD 36.08 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 28.49 per share, central HKD 32.02 per share, high HKD 36.72 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.