# AIA Group (1299.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1299.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 72.45 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 138.69 per share, central HKD 146.11 per share, high HKD 155.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 146.11 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.20×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 0.17×

- FY2020: 0.15×

- FY2021: 0.19×

- FY2023: 0.17×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%.

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 7

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 8.3%

- FY2021: 9.9%

- FY2022: 6.5%

- FY2023: 7.9%

- FY2024: 13.6%

- FY2025: 11.8%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $28B

- Net income, five-year total: $28B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.2 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.95×

- FY2022: 0.98×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.02×

- FY2025: 1.06×

### management: pass

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.9% vs 11.8%

- Per-share earnings: 0.55 to 0.59 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Per-share value growth: 1.8%

- Per-share value change: $0.04

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.55

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.59

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.40

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 4 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.9%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: $0.55

- FY2020: $0.48

- FY2021: $0.61

- FY2022: $0.28

- FY2023: $0.33

- FY2024: $0.62

- FY2025: $0.59

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -0.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.33×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.12×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.09×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: 1.2%

- FY2020: 1.0%

- FY2021: 1.0%

- FY2022: -2.4%

- FY2023: -2.5%

- FY2024: 1.2%

- FY2025: -0.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Up 7% since Oct 2023 · sales +26.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.397Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +26.7%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2019: $47B 

- FY2020: $50B 

- FY2021: $47B 

- FY2022: -$15B 

- FY2023: $30B 

- FY2024: $31B 

- FY2025: $40B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 82.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2023: 65.7% 

- FY2025: 82.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 39.6 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2025: revenue 39604000000; grossProfit 32578121000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1299.HK: AIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services in Hong Kong. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It is also involved in the distribution of investment and other financial services products. It sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Brunei, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

### Why customers stay

It earns 9.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,0.09901458767490325],[2020,0.08267225751096718],[2021,0.09884800793988374],[2022,0.06547664233696307],[2023,0.07851177609049799],[2024,0.13646960334707325],[2025,0.11777771613606916]]; median 0.09884800793988374. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 7.4% of cash earnings; earns 2.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 169000000; owner earnings 6706800000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 254000000; owner earnings 5813600000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 640000000; owner earnings 7086000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 386000000; cash acquisitions 282000000; owner earnings 3257000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.08658274485723058.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 326000000; cash acquisitions 392000000; owner earnings 3781000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.10367627611742924.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 237000000; cash acquisitions 97000000; owner earnings 7003800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.013849624489562808.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 256000000; cash acquisitions 492000000; owner earnings 6628800000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07422157856625633.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); Incremental return on capital 0.023623727422897967, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); Dividend observations: [[2019,1982000000],[2020,2002000000],[2021,2175000000],[2022,2279000000],[2023,2312000000],[2024,2333000000],[2025,2441000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/7A2.MU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 2279000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own <0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1299.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.044000000000000004 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 2.5 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:42.669Z); Closing price 72.45 HKD; reporting-to-trading FX 7.846829880728186; FY2025 annual sales per share 3.7489587277546383; price multiple 2.4628246589233416. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.6274895872775463. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2016-10: HKD 48.95 per share

- 2016-11: HKD 47.30 per share

- 2016-12: HKD 43.75 per share

- 2017-01: HKD 48.30 per share

- 2017-02: HKD 49.05 per share

- 2017-03: HKD 49.00 per share

- 2017-04: HKD 53.85 per share

- 2017-05: HKD 55.25 per share

- 2017-06: HKD 57.05 per share

- 2017-07: HKD 61.55 per share

- 2017-08: HKD 60.05 per share

- 2017-09: HKD 57.60 per share

- 2017-10: HKD 58.70 per share

- 2017-11: HKD 63.30 per share

- 2017-12: HKD 66.65 per share

- 2018-01: HKD 67.00 per share

- 2018-02: HKD 65.55 per share

- 2018-03: HKD 66.40 per share

- 2018-04: HKD 70.70 per share

- 2018-05: HKD 72.00 per share

- 2018-06: HKD 68.60 per share

- 2018-07: HKD 68.50 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 67.70 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 69.90 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 59.35 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 63.85 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 65.00 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 70.50 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 78.50 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 78.15 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 79.95 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 73.65 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 84.25 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 80.90 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 76.25 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 74.05 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 78.45 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 78.40 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 81.80 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 77.75 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 76.90 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 70.15 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 71.95 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 62.85 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 72.30 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 70.05 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 79.80 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 75.90 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 73.05 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 84.95 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 95.00 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 93.75 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 97.05 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 94.30 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 98.90 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 99.20 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 96.50 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 93.10 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 92.95 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 89.95 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 87.85 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 82.05 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 78.60 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 80.65 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 81.25 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 82.45 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 77.75 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 80.90 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 85.05 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 79.00 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 75.95 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 65.45 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 59.45 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 78.50 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 86.80 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 88.55 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 83.25 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 82.65 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 84.95 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 75.10 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 79.10 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 77.40 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 71.20 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 63.85 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 67.85 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 67.40 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 68.05 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 60.95 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 63.60 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 52.55 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 57.80 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 60.45 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 53.00 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 52.50 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 55.45 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 69.65 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 61.45 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 58.15 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 56.30 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 54.25 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 59.40 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 58.60 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 58.10 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 65.65 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 70.40 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 73.40 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 73.40 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 74.65 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 75.45 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 80.60 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 79.90 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 90.35 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 86.80 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 84.85 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 85.05 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 82.25 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 71.45 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 79.25 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 76.25 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 73.60 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 72.45 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:28.011Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.