# Inpex (1605.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1605.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:18.033Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,639.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 6,101.41 per share, central JPY 6,927.71 per share, high JPY 8,027.68 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 6,927.71 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:18.033Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 16.9% at the stated quote. About 16.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.21×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.45×

- FY2017: 0.36×

- FY2018: 0.37×

- FY2019: 0.50×

- FY2020: 0.32×

- FY2021: 0.47×

- FY2022: 0.65×

- FY2023: 0.51×

- FY2024: 0.56×

- FY2025: 0.56×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 56.1%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 57.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.3%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 8.9%

- FY2017: 7.6%

- FY2018: 7.1%

- FY2019: 8.2%

- FY2020: 4.3%

- FY2021: 9.6%

- FY2022: 20.5%

- FY2023: 14.4%

- FY2024: 14.7%

- FY2025: 12.8%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.70×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 3.16T

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 1.86T

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 5.4%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.27×

- FY2022: 1.57×

- FY2023: 1.93×

- FY2024: 1.76×

- FY2025: 1.84×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2025 (8 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 7.6% vs 14.4%

- Per-share earnings: 31.61 to 330.82 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 2.12T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 1.75T

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.0%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 34.1%

- Per-share value change: JPY 299.21

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 31.61

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 330.82

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 1.00

- Average buyback yield: 5.6%

- Buyback history: 2 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 2.06T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 7.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 14.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: JPY 31.61

- FY2017: JPY 27.64

- FY2018: JPY 65.81

- FY2019: JPY 84.61

- FY2020: JPY -76.50

- FY2021: JPY 153.87

- FY2022: JPY 364.73

- FY2023: JPY 248.55

- FY2024: JPY 345.31

- FY2025: JPY 330.82

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.76×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -5.3%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -3.3%

- FY2019: -3.1%

- FY2020: -8.7%

- FY2021: -4.2%

- FY2022: -4.4%

- FY2023: -6.9%

- FY2024: -3.1%

- FY2025: -3.9%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 22% since Mar 2026 · sales -11.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.875Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 7.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -11.2%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: JPY 874B 

- FY2017: JPY 934B 

- FY2018: JPY 971B 

- FY2019: JPY 1.00T 

- FY2020: JPY 771B 

- FY2021: JPY 1.24T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.32T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.16T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.27T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.01T 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 57%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf; observed 2026-03-26.

- FY2016: 55.2% 

- FY2017: 45.0% 

- FY2018: 44.8% 

- FY2019: 57.5% 

- FY2020: 43.0% 

- FY2021: 54.3% 

- FY2022: 64.7% 

- FY2023: 60.8% 

- FY2024: 59.6% 

- FY2025: 57.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: revenue 2011351000000; grossProfit 1146836000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 57% to 60.8% during 2023–25; it earns 9.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 60.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.6%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 57%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.0885715787576595],[2017,0.07637916853661816],[2018,0.07070857750271908],[2019,0.08220988136868743],[2020,0.04303429236198376],[2021,0.0956916016409243],[2022,0.20481886720728526],[2023,0.14356787828555784],[2024,0.147000805188773],[2025,0.12775539186275933]]; median 0.0921315901992919. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 5.9% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 110958000000; owner earnings 148221000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 143232000000; owner earnings 283000000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 4101000000; owner earnings 781030000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 1484000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 619713000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 8979000000; cash acquisitions 40907000000; owner earnings 753435000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05429400014599799.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 2620000000; cash acquisitions 43017000000; owner earnings 723569000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.05945113734833858.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Dividend observations: [[2016,26297000000],[2017,26286000000],[2018,26291000000],[2019,39432000000],[2020,43796000000],[2021,46718000000],[2022,80399000000],[2023,90147000000],[2024,100248000000],[2025,111412000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### What could break it

"③ 埋蔵量の変動の可能性" (1605 filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf (filed 2026-03-26); ③ 埋蔵量の変動の可能性

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 7.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-26); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.11653567017043093. Price 3639; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,085.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,171.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,110.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,116.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,094.50 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,068.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,018.50 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,081.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,073.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,051.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,195.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,204.50 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,265.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,409.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,419.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,311.50 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,316.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,402.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,214.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,149.50 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,230.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,215.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,417.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,299.50 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,205.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 981.70 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,045.50 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,083.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,055.50 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,081.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 878.80 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 971.30 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 961.30 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 919.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 991.10 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,008.50 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,069.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,136.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,030.50 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 932.90 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 608.80 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 691.10 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 750.90 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 666.90 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 599.10 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 673.80 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 563.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 492.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 584.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 556.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 605.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 784.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 756.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 746.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 753.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 829.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 775.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 758.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 876.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 952.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 937.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,002.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,155.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,185.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,440.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,532.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,679.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,470.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,508.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,604.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,359.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,518.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,533.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,396.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,420.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,433.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,397.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,473.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,480.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,598.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,832.50 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,035.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,256.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,182.50 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,090.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,904.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,045.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,011.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,348.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,392.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 2,423.50 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 2,367.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 2,326.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 2,169.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,938.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 2,013.50 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,974.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,970.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,870.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,906.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 2,057.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,809.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,951.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 2,025.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 2,147.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 2,518.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,673.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,841.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,331.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,127.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,443.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,800.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 4,678.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 4,150.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,604.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,265.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,627.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,957.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,667.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,737.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2022: low JPY 2,920.98 per share, central JPY 3,299.55 per share, high JPY 3,803.49 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 5,183.48 per share, central JPY 7,195.71 per share, high JPY 8,422.97 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 7,130.89 per share, central JPY 9,896.95 per share, high JPY 11,586.19 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 6,248.28 per share, central JPY 7,094.93 per share, high JPY 8,222.01 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XU9L.pdf); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-26.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.