# taisei (1801.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1801.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:20.078Z. Financial observations: FY2017–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 11,010.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 7,803.16 per share, central JPY 8,682.30 per share, high JPY 9,852.61 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 8,682.30 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:20.078Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.40×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.06×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.02×

- FY2025: 0.06×

- FY2026: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 14.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 4.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 14.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 14.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 35.1%

- FY2018: 56.4%

- FY2019: 22.8%

- FY2020: 24.6%

- FY2021: 15.8%

- FY2022: 11.2%

- FY2023: 6.2%

- FY2024: 2.4%

- FY2025: 10.0%

- FY2026: 13.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.66×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 300B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 453B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 6.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 2.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 16.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.5%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: -1.28×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.64×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 35.1% vs 10.0%

- Per-share earnings: 511.90 to 682.78 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -4.5%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.73T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 347B

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -4.5%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 4.2%

- Per-share value change: JPY 170.88

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 511.90

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 682.78

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.16

- Average buyback yield: 3.4%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 189B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 997B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 35.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.0%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 392.87

- FY2018: JPY 561.36

- FY2019: JPY 511.90

- FY2020: JPY 573.14

- FY2021: JPY 442.66

- FY2022: JPY 350.88

- FY2023: JPY 241.24

- FY2024: JPY 215.75

- FY2025: JPY 682.78

- FY2026: JPY 1K

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 0.8%

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.87×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.12×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -7.2%

- FY2018: -4.2%

- FY2019: 9.9%

- FY2020: 2.4%

- FY2021: 1.3%

- FY2022: -0.5%

- FY2023: 0.8%

- FY2024: -0.0%

- FY2025: 5.7%

- FY2026: 0.8%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 46% since Feb 2026 · sales -3%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.883Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 4.4% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales -3%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2017: JPY 1.49T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.59T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.65T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.75T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.48T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.54T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.64T 

- FY2024: JPY 1.77T 

- FY2025: JPY 2.15T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.09T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 15.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf; observed 2026-06-16.

- FY2017: 15.2% 

- FY2018: 16.8% 

- FY2019: 14.6% 

- FY2020: 14.8% 

- FY2021: 14.8% 

- FY2022: 12.2% 

- FY2023: 9.0% 

- FY2024: 7.2% 

- FY2025: 10.7% 

- FY2026: 15.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: revenue 2089091000000; grossProfit 330055000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.2% to 15.8% during 2024–26; it earns 14.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 7.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.7%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 15.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.35065553798968396],[2018,0.5638618726475846],[2019,0.22829095435963564],[2020,0.24633682519489708],[2021,0.1575808668338525],[2022,0.11167801593079911],[2023,0.06181309633774251],[2024,0.023956938989945758],[2025,0.0999521989104374],[2026,0.13154733499258686]]; median 0.1445641009132197. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Earns 6.9% on new investment; paid dividends in 10 of 10 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 7226000000; owner earnings 89607000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2018: growth capex 2305000000; upkeep 7049000000; owner earnings 126788000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.018179953938858566.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2019: growth capex 8069203845.365448; upkeep 38575796154.63455; owner earnings 81850203845.36545. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.09858501831724327.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2020: growth capex 3106000000; upkeep 9885000000; owner earnings 122087000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.025440874130742832.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12725000000; owner earnings 90288000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2022: growth capex 2323000000; upkeep 10907000000; owner earnings 71436000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.032518618063721375.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2023: growth capex 4685000000; upkeep 11478000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 47124000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09941855530090825.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); FY2025: growth capex 15548000000; upkeep 16391000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 123824000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1255653185166042.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: growth capex 0; upkeep 77579000000; cash acquisitions 150480000000; owner earnings 109191000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.3781355606231283.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Incremental return on capital 0.0693698443176339, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Dividend observations: [[2017,22031000000],[2018,24956000000],[2019,29906000000],[2020,29003000000],[2021,27296000000],[2022,26598000000],[2023,25722000000],[2024,24384000000],[2025,23877000000],[2026,45502000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf (filed 2026-06-16); FY2026: cash repurchases 77968000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 4.4% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.04976324650951203. Price 11010; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 4,140.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 4,090.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 4,010.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 3,940.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 4,055.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 4,250.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 4,730.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 5,130.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 5,280.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 5,515.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 5,900.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 6,270.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 5,900.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 5,610.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 5,550.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 5,450.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 5,400.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 5,910.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 5,990.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 6,110.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 6,210.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 4,970.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 5,180.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 4,835.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 4,990.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 4,705.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 5,110.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 5,260.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 5,140.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 4,875.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 3,965.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 3,915.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 3,770.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 3,760.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 4,185.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 4,300.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 4,295.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 4,545.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 4,410.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 3,695.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 3,305.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 3,385.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 3,740.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 3,920.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 3,620.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 3,665.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 3,550.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 3,245.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 3,690.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 3,555.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 3,385.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 3,755.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 4,270.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 4,030.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 3,820.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 3,640.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 3,675.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 3,445.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 3,600.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 3,570.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 3,310.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 3,495.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 3,745.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 3,815.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 3,535.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 3,525.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 3,850.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 4,225.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 4,240.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 4,235.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 4,020.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 4,055.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 4,165.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 4,250.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 4,480.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 4,440.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 4,095.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 4,615.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 4,435.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 5,021.00 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 5,386.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 4,903.00 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 5,261.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 5,099.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 5,031.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 4,822.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 5,385.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 4,707.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 5,648.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 5,772.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 5,967.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 5,951.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 6,425.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 6,603.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 6,260.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 6,462.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 6,511.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 6,639.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 6,519.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 6,756.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 6,609.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 7,745.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 8,053.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 8,400.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 9,066.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 10,010.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 10,170.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 11,235.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 13,350.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 14,835.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 15,390.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 20,340.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 16,055.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 16,955.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 14,010.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 14,250.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 13,065.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 12,570.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 12,330.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 11,505.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2021: low JPY 6,942.48 per share, central JPY 7,593.25 per share, high JPY 8,459.57 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 7,353.91 per share, central JPY 8,050.74 per share, high JPY 8,978.37 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 6,518.43 per share, central JPY 7,146.77 per share, high JPY 7,983.23 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 6,924.00 per share, central JPY 7,583.64 per share, high JPY 8,461.76 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 7,430.54 per share, central JPY 8,259.20 per share, high JPY 9,362.32 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 7,803.16 per share, central JPY 8,682.30 per share, high JPY 9,852.61 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YBGF.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.

taisei

1801 · JP

Nikkei 225

Not a wonderful business

2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.

Share price: JPY 11,010.00
Buy up to: JPY 8,682.30
Expected / yr: 8.3% at today's price (10.0% at central value)

The business

How it makes money
Why customers stay
Where the cash goes
What the price says

1. Is this a good business?

Evidence only; not required for Buy

Margins varied 40.3% around their average (limit 35%).

Operating margin

10y median: 8.9%
Worst year: 1.5%
Latest · 2026: 9.0%

Capital return excluding acquisitions: median 14.5% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year 6.2% (minimum 10%).

ROIC excluding acquisitions

10y median: 14.5%
Worst year: 2.4%
Latest · 2026: 13.2%

Each $1 of profit left $0.66 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80), and new investment earned 6.9% (minimum 12%), and working capital rose 16.5% of sales (limit 10%) to 4.5% (waived at zero or below).

Annual owner cash / profit

Five-year totals: 0.66×
Annual median: 1.00×
Latest · 2026: 0.64×

Per-share value rose from 511.9 to 682.78, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).

Earnings per share

10y median: JPY 477.28
Worst year: JPY 215.75
Latest · 2026: JPY 1K

Profits were backed by cash: accruals were 0.8% of assets (limit 10%).

Sloan accruals

10y median: 0.8%
Worst year: 9.9%
Latest · 2026: 0.8%

Profit record · pass 0 loss years in 10 (at most 2), mean operating margin 7.4%, three-year average owner earnings per share 355.03 JPY.

2. Is the price low enough?

PriceEstimated rangeBuy price

2016-11 · Price JPY 4140.00; 2016-12 · Price JPY 4090.00; 2017-01 · Price JPY 4010.00; 2017-02 · Price JPY 3940.00; 2017-03 · Price JPY 4055.00; 2017-04 · Price JPY 4250.00; 2017-05 · Price JPY 4730.00; 2017-06 · Price JPY 5130.00; 2017-07 · Price JPY 5280.00; 2017-08 · Price JPY 5515.00; 2017-09 · Price JPY 5900.00; 2017-10 · Price JPY 6270.00; 2017-11 · Price JPY 5900.00; 2017-12 · Price JPY 5610.00; 2018-01 · Price JPY 5550.00; 2018-02 · Price JPY 5450.00; 2018-03 · Price JPY 5400.00; 2018-04 · Price JPY 5910.00; 2018-05 · Price JPY 5990.00; 2018-06 · Price JPY 6110.00; 2018-07 · Price JPY 6210.00; 2018-08 · Price JPY 4970.00; 2018-09 · Price JPY 5180.00; 2018-10 · Price JPY 4835.00; 2018-11 · Price JPY 4990.00; 2018-12 · Price JPY 4705.00; 2019-01 · Price JPY 5110.00; 2019-02 · Price JPY 5260.00; 2019-03 · Price JPY 5140.00; 2019-04 · Price JPY 4875.00; 2019-05 · Price JPY 3965.00; 2019-06 · Price JPY 3915.00; 2019-07 · Price JPY 3770.00; 2019-08 · Price JPY 3760.00; 2019-09 · Price JPY 4185.00; 2019-10 · Price JPY 4300.00; 2019-11 · Price JPY 4295.00; 2019-12 · Price JPY 4545.00; 2020-01 · Price JPY 4410.00; 2020-02 · Price JPY 3695.00; 2020-03 · Price JPY 3305.00; 2020-04 · Price JPY 3385.00; 2020-05 · Price JPY 3740.00; 2020-06 · Price JPY 3920.00; 2020-07 · Price JPY 3620.00; 2020-08 · Price JPY 3665.00; 2020-09 · Price JPY 3550.00; 2020-10 · Price JPY 3245.00; 2020-11 · Price JPY 3690.00; 2020-12 · Price JPY 3555.00; 2021-01 · Price JPY 3385.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-02 · Price JPY 3755.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-03 · Price JPY 4270.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-04 · Price JPY 4030.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-05 · Price JPY 3820.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-06 · Price JPY 3640.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-07 · Price JPY 3675.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-08 · Price JPY 3445.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-09 · Price JPY 3600.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-10 · Price JPY 3570.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-11 · Price JPY 3310.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2021-12 · Price JPY 3495.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2022-01 · Price JPY 3745.00 · Value 7593.25 · Buy at or below 7593.25; 2022-02 · Price JPY 3815.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-03 · Price JPY 3535.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-04 · Price JPY 3525.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-05 · Price JPY 3850.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-06 · Price JPY 4225.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-07 · Price JPY 4240.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-08 · Price JPY 4235.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-09 · Price JPY 4020.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-10 · Price JPY 4055.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-11 · Price JPY 4165.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2022-12 · Price JPY 4250.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2023-01 · Price JPY 4480.00 · Value 8050.74 · Buy at or below 8050.74; 2023-02 · Price JPY 4440.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-03 · Price JPY 4095.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-04 · Price JPY 4615.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-05 · Price JPY 4435.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-06 · Price JPY 5021.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-07 · Price JPY 5386.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-08 · Price JPY 4903.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-09 · Price JPY 5261.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-10 · Price JPY 5099.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-11 · Price JPY 5031.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2023-12 · Price JPY 4822.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2024-01 · Price JPY 5385.00 · Value 7146.77 · Buy at or below 7146.77; 2024-02 · Price JPY 4707.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-03 · Price JPY 5648.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-04 · Price JPY 5772.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-05 · Price JPY 5967.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-06 · Price JPY 5951.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-07 · Price JPY 6425.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-08 · Price JPY 6603.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-09 · Price JPY 6260.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-10 · Price JPY 6462.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-11 · Price JPY 6511.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2024-12 · Price JPY 6639.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2025-01 · Price JPY 6519.00 · Value 7583.64 · Buy at or below 7583.64; 2025-02 · Price JPY 6756.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-03 · Price JPY 6609.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-04 · Price JPY 7745.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-05 · Price JPY 8053.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-06 · Price JPY 8400.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-07 · Price JPY 9066.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-08 · Price JPY 10010.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-09 · Price JPY 10170.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-10 · Price JPY 11235.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-11 · Price JPY 13350.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2025-12 · Price JPY 14835.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2026-01 · Price JPY 15390.00 · Value 8259.20 · Buy at or below 8259.20; 2026-02 · Price JPY 20340.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-03 · Price JPY 16055.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-04 · Price JPY 16955.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-05 · Price JPY 14010.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-06 · Price JPY 14250.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-07 · Price JPY 13065.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-08 · Price JPY 12570.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-09 · Price JPY 12330.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-10 · Price JPY 11505.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30; 2026-10 · Price JPY 11010.00 · Value 8682.30 · Buy at or below 8682.30

JPY per share · annual estimates

Price & return math
Value range	JPY 7,803.16 – JPY 9,852.61
Buy at or below	Central value JPY 8,682.30
Discount to value	1 − 11010.00 / 8682.30 = -26.8%
Return / year	About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%)
Cash-flow inputs	Owner cash JPY 583.35/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash JPY 1426.99/share today.
Required return	10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value

RevenueJPY 2.09T

Revenue

Owner earningsJPY 109B

Owner earnings

Operating margin9.0%

Operating margin

Net cash / debtJPY -147B

Net cash / debt

Diluted shares166M

Diluted shares

Prices 15 Oct 2026 · FY2026Original filing ↗ ·