# Shimizu (1803.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1803.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:20.232Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 1,959.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 1,375.08 per share, central JPY 1,591.06 per share, high JPY 1,778.70 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,591.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:20.232Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 4 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 4

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.56×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.08×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.08×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.07×

- FY2022: 0.03×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: -0.01×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.06×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 3.6%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.7 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 10.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 5.8%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 17.4%

- FY2018: 13.6%

- FY2019: 11.9%

- FY2020: 13.2%

- FY2021: 8.1%

- FY2022: 3.6%

- FY2023: 3.9%

- FY2024: -1.5%

- FY2025: 4.8%

- FY2026: 6.9%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.63×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 193B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 307B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 2.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 1.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 10.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: -0.72×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.78×

- FY2025: 0.99×

- FY2026: 0.79×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 13.6% vs 4.8%

- Per-share earnings: 108.31 to 94.80 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- Market cap gain: JPY 1.10T

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 404B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -2.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: -1.7%

- Per-share value change: JPY -13.51

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 108.31

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 94.80

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.43

- Average buyback yield: 1.8%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 38B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 766B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 13.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 4.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 126.11

- FY2018: JPY 108.31

- FY2019: JPY 127.04

- FY2020: JPY 128.31

- FY2021: JPY 101.17

- FY2022: JPY 64.09

- FY2023: JPY 66.29

- FY2024: JPY 23.57

- FY2025: JPY 94.80

- FY2026: JPY 186.68

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: 3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.51×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.33×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.6%

- FY2018: 0.1%

- FY2019: 6.2%

- FY2020: -3.8%

- FY2021: -0.2%

- FY2022: -1.4%

- FY2023: -1.4%

- FY2024: 1.5%

- FY2025: -3.7%

- FY2026: 3.2%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 44% since Feb 2026 · sales +5.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.890Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.5% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.8%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 1.57T 

- FY2018: JPY 1.52T 

- FY2019: JPY 1.66T 

- FY2020: JPY 1.70T 

- FY2021: JPY 1.46T 

- FY2022: JPY 1.48T 

- FY2023: JPY 1.93T 

- FY2024: JPY 2.01T 

- FY2025: JPY 1.94T 

- FY2026: JPY 2.06T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 12.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 13.4% 

- FY2018: 13.4% 

- FY2019: 13.0% 

- FY2020: 13.3% 

- FY2021: 13.1% 

- FY2022: 9.4% 

- FY2023: 8.3% 

- FY2024: 4.5% 

- FY2025: 10.1% 

- FY2026: 12.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 2.1 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 2057802000000; grossProfit 258091000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 4.5% to 12.5% during 2024–26; it earns 7.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 4.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 10.1%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 12.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.17354904176433464],[2018,0.13609694849322237],[2019,0.1192783573660963],[2020,0.13207903252398545],[2021,0.0808671363815887],[2022,0.03577336043637077],[2023,0.03905575086473628],[2024,-0.015019142204582897],[2025,0.048403109909902355],[2026,0.06864293537146103]]; median 0.07475503587652486. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 38.6% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 2.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 30940000000; owner earnings 79668000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 30640000000; owner earnings 66737000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 23698105487.15808; upkeep 35020894512.84192; owner earnings 77951105487.15808. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.30401243624520735.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2023: growth capex 42777000000; upkeep 25798000000; owner earnings 49057000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.8719856493466783.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 23611613658.565773; upkeep 34085386341.434227; owner earnings 13333613658.565773. Growth capex / owner earnings = 1.770833793687821.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 34076000000; owner earnings 65417000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 38686493613.14578; upkeep 59967506386.85422; owner earnings 100160493613.14578. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3862450375151535.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.026840938198928077, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,12574000000],[2018,24362000000],[2019,22790000000],[2020,31906000000],[2021,24454000000],[2022,22277000000],[2023,16237000000],[2024,17643000000],[2025,16856000000],[2026,28872000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 10014000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 6.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08007101169585962. Price 1959.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 75.61 → FY2026 147.67338467742923. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,054.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,069.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,039.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,031.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 998.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,069.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,116.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,191.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,166.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,136.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,247.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,329.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 1,247.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 1,164.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,117.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 998.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 951.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 1,084.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,065.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,149.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,168.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 972.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,037.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 916.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 970.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 895.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 925.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 978.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 962.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 949.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 885.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 895.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 881.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 886.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 978.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 1,014.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 1,048.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,116.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,133.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 982.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 845.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 836.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 912.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 885.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 756.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 816.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 789.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 724.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 793.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 750.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 737.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 805.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 896.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 895.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 897.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 852.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 803.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 790.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 843.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 833.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 717.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 713.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 763.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 761.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 735.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 683.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 685.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 750.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 753.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 766.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 709.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 743.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 738.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 704.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 727.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 735.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 750.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 829.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 846.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 910.30 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 979.60 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 979.70 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,039.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 1,071.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 971.60 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 936.60 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 989.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 868.80 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 1,005.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 977.50 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 869.70 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 903.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 950.70 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 973.60 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 983.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,017.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,188.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,252.50 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,349.50 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,378.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,323.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,525.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,588.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,611.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,680.50 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,988.50 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 2,079.50 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 2,073.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 2,771.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 2,668.50 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 2,738.50 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,493.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,772.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,038.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 2,681.50 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 2,549.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,379.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,388.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 2,144.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 2,008.50 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,470.20 per share, central JPY 1,615.93 per share, high JPY 1,809.92 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,240.66 per share, central JPY 1,367.04 per share, high JPY 1,535.28 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 796.05 per share, central JPY 852.75 per share, high JPY 899.50 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 1,375.08 per share, central JPY 1,591.06 per share, high JPY 1,778.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YDXD.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.