# Xiaomi (1810.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1810.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z. Financial observations: FY2015–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 27.08 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 20.35 per share, central HKD 26.85 per share, high HKD 30.64 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 26.85 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 9.9% at the stated quote. About 9.9% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.50×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.06×

- FY2017: 0.11×

- FY2018: 0.01×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.06×

- FY2022: 0.02×

- FY2023: 0.05×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.07×

### moat: fail

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -5.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.2%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 18.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.8%

- FY2017: 32.5%

- FY2018: 2.6%

- FY2019: 19.1%

- FY2020: 19.9%

- FY2021: 19.8%

- FY2022: 4.0%

- FY2023: 13.9%

- FY2024: 16.0%

- FY2025: 13.3%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.92×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 96B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 105B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 243.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -8.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -4.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.89×

- FY2022: -0.04×

- FY2023: 0.90×

- FY2024: 0.95×

- FY2025: 0.97×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2018 to 2025 (7 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.8% vs 13.9%

- Per-share earnings: -0.34 to 0.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- Market cap gain: CNY 632B

- Cumulative retained earnings: CNY 131B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2018

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: CNY 1.27

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY -0.34

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 0.93

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.14

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 7 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 9.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 105B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.8%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 13.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 0.02

- FY2017: CNY -1.84

- FY2018: CNY 0.57

- FY2019: CNY 0.41

- FY2020: CNY 0.83

- FY2021: CNY 0.77

- FY2022: CNY 0.10

- FY2023: CNY 0.69

- FY2024: CNY 0.93

- FY2025: CNY 1.56

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: 1.5%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.94×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 15.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.82×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.06×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.8%

- FY2017: -47.7%

- FY2018: 10.3%

- FY2019: 0.6%

- FY2020: -0.6%

- FY2021: 3.3%

- FY2022: 2.5%

- FY2023: -7.3%

- FY2024: -3.9%

- FY2025: 1.5%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 55% since Jun 2025 · "Xiaomi's Q2 profit slides 42.6% on component cost pressure" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales +25%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:57.595Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-27: Xiaomi shares hit record as EV orders soar, raising pressure on Tesla ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/video/xiaomi-shares-hit-record-ev-064309971.html))

- 2025-10-24: China's Xiaomi says surging memory chip prices push up smartphone costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-xiaomi-says-surging-memory-051854944.html))

- 2025-11-18: Xiaomi warns of higher smartphone prices due to surging memory chip costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xiaomi-reports-22-jump-q3-093920084.html))

- 2025-12-17: Memory crunch: Chinese tablet makers Xiaomi and Honor raise prices as chip costs surge ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/memory-crunch-chinese-tablet-makers-093000244.html))

- 2026-03-24: Xiaomi Quarterly Profit Falls Amid Rising Memory Costs ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/2dc9e2c1-2d5e-3e9c-880c-807011c30cb9/xiaomi-quarterly-profit-falls.html))

- 2026-06-30: Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo slash shipment targets up to 30% amid memory crunch - Nikkei ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/xiaomi-oppo-vivo-slash-shipment-142852887.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +25%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 68B 

- FY2017: CNY 115B 

- FY2018: CNY 175B 

- FY2019: CNY 213B 

- FY2020: CNY 246B 

- FY2021: CNY 328B 

- FY2022: CNY 280B 

- FY2023: CNY 271B 

- FY2024: CNY 366B 

- FY2025: CNY 457B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 22.3%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 10.6% 

- FY2017: 13.2% 

- FY2018: 12.7% 

- FY2019: 14.7% 

- FY2020: 14.9% 

- FY2021: 17.7% 

- FY2022: 17.0% 

- FY2023: 21.2% 

- FY2024: 20.9% 

- FY2025: 22.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in consumer electronics; annual sales are CNY 457.3 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2025: revenue 457286687000; grossProfit 101805847000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1810.HK: Xiaomi Corporation, an investment holding company, engages in the development and sales of smartphones in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through Smartphones, IoT and Lifestyle Products, Internet Services, and smart electric vehicles segments. The company also offers internet of things (IoT) and lifestyle products comprising smart large home appliances, smart TVs, tablets, wearables and other IoT and lifestyle products; hardware repairment services for products; installation services for certain IoT products; and sale of materials. In addition, it provides internet services, such as advertising, online game, and fintech services; and development, manufacture, and sales of smart electric vehicles. Further, the company in the wholesale and retail of smartphones and ecosystem partners' products; investment activities; sales of smart hardware; software and hardware development; procurement and sales of smartphones, ecosystem partners' products and spare parts, and raw materials; operation of retail stores; and commercial factoring and e-commerce business. Additionally, it provides intra-group capital supervision, collection, remittance, credit guarantee, and interest rate risk management; customer; software related; promotion; electronic payment technology; and technical services. Xiaomi Corporation was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 20.9% to 22.3% during 2023–25; it earns 16.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.16787136027576768],[2017,0.3251380391925641],[2018,0.025717355098158274],[2019,0.19116087595892478],[2020,0.19863359053197027],[2021,0.1977227482852888],[2022,0.039713964713651094],[2023,0.1390649592955166],[2024,0.16026048961308342],[2025,0.1329349982414749]]; median 0.16406592494442557. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 9.9% of cash earnings; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2018: growth capex 916883568.5894451; upkeep 2868375431.410555; owner earnings 11433726568.589445. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.0801911400529984.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2019-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2019: growth capex 754996885.7757831; upkeep 2294624114.224217; owner earnings 8938549285.775784. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.08446525958940956.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2020-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2020: growth capex 799569119.8684855; upkeep 2225953880.1315145; owner earnings 19662035319.868484. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04066563338234475.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2021: growth capex 2640621747.309801; upkeep 4528691252.690199; owner earnings 17216044947.3098. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15338143896530823.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 6268900000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 15648926800. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2024: growth capex 979038000; upkeep 6318269000; cash acquisitions 4539000; owner earnings 22576454800. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.04356649477135799.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2025: growth capex 4012408000; upkeep 8756747000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 40500541600. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.09907047761553885.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); Incremental return on capital 2.4311541457903907, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,0],[2020,0],[2021,0],[2022,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/3CP.STU.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 6172545000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 20.5% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 1810.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 20.453 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.6% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:33:44.303Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08191096369533823. Price 27.08; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.4423995406179881 → FY2025 1.5171398019263747. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2018-07: HKD 17.60 per share

- 2018-08: HKD 16.80 per share

- 2018-09: HKD 15.50 per share

- 2018-10: HKD 12.18 per share

- 2018-11: HKD 14.28 per share

- 2018-12: HKD 12.92 per share

- 2019-01: HKD 9.84 per share

- 2019-02: HKD 11.96 per share

- 2019-03: HKD 11.38 per share

- 2019-04: HKD 12.02 per share

- 2019-05: HKD 9.58 per share

- 2019-06: HKD 10.00 per share

- 2019-07: HKD 9.05 per share

- 2019-08: HKD 8.53 per share

- 2019-09: HKD 8.80 per share

- 2019-10: HKD 8.90 per share

- 2019-11: HKD 8.95 per share

- 2019-12: HKD 10.78 per share

- 2020-01: HKD 11.52 per share

- 2020-02: HKD 12.56 per share

- 2020-03: HKD 10.44 per share

- 2020-04: HKD 10.20 per share

- 2020-05: HKD 12.02 per share

- 2020-06: HKD 12.84 per share

- 2020-07: HKD 14.82 per share

- 2020-08: HKD 23.50 per share

- 2020-09: HKD 20.45 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 22.00 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 26.50 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 33.05 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 29.20 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 25.30 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 25.75 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 24.60 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 29.25 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 27.00 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 25.35 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 25.00 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 21.35 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 21.35 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 19.28 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 18.90 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 16.38 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 14.66 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 13.94 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 12.20 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 12.14 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 13.64 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 12.34 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 11.56 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 8.96 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 8.81 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 10.32 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 10.94 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 12.92 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 11.86 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 12.10 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 11.06 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 10.34 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 10.72 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 12.28 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 12.36 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 12.34 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 14.02 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 15.62 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 15.60 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 12.32 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 13.22 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 14.94 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 17.32 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 17.48 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 16.48 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 16.84 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 19.50 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 22.50 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 26.70 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 27.75 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 34.65 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 38.15 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 51.85 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 49.20 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 49.95 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 50.95 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 59.95 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 53.15 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 52.85 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 54.00 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 43.20 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 41.02 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 39.30 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 35.50 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 34.90 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 31.76 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 29.02 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 28.04 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 21.64 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 28.78 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 27.62 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 25.24 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 27.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2020: low HKD 9.67 per share, central HKD 10.41 per share, high HKD 11.39 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 12.58 per share, central HKD 13.80 per share, high HKD 15.42 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 10.33 per share, central HKD 11.35 per share, high HKD 12.72 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 11.93 per share, central HKD 12.93 per share, high HKD 14.25 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 14.97 per share, central HKD 16.43 per share, high HKD 18.38 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 20.10 per share, central HKD 26.86 per share, high HKD 30.80 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:39:29.700Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.