# Sekisui House (1928.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/1928.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:22.904Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 3,394.00 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 5,210.31 per share, central JPY 7,210.21 per share, high JPY 8,374.75 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 7,210.21 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:22.904Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 18.6% at the stated quote. About 18.6% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.05×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.09×

- FY2018: 0.09×

- FY2019: 0.09×

- FY2020: 0.08×

- FY2021: 0.08×

- FY2022: 0.09×

- FY2023: 0.09×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.08×

- FY2026: 0.08×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 9.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 7.4%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 20.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 20.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.8%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 7.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 9.4%

- FY2018: 9.4%

- FY2019: 8.9%

- FY2020: 11.5%

- FY2021: 10.2%

- FY2022: 10.7%

- FY2023: 10.1%

- FY2024: 8.9%

- FY2025: 7.4%

- FY2026: 6.9%

### economics: fail

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- working capital as a share of revenue rose more than 10pp and ends positive

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.93×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 920B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 991B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 5.4%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 3.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 23.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 58.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 0.83×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.93×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 0.87×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 9.4% vs 7.4%

- Per-share earnings: 175.48 to 335.95 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: JPY 959B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 830B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 8.5%

- Per-share value change: JPY 160.47

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 175.48

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 335.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): -0.08

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: JPY 224B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 1.64T

- ROIC, first three-year median: 9.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 7.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 175.48

- FY2018: JPY 193.06

- FY2019: JPY 186.53

- FY2020: JPY 205.79

- FY2021: JPY 181.18

- FY2022: JPY 227.37

- FY2023: JPY 276.58

- FY2024: JPY 309.29

- FY2025: JPY 335.95

- FY2026: JPY 358.07

### accounting: pass

- latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465

- Sloan accruals: 0.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 2.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 0.93×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.10×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.3%

- FY2018: -1.3%

- FY2019: 0.1%

- FY2020: -8.4%

- FY2021: -2.6%

- FY2022: 1.3%

- FY2023: 2.0%

- FY2024: 5.6%

- FY2025: 3.2%

- FY2026: 0.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.2% a year for ten years · sales +3.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.904Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.2% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +3.4%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf; observed 2026-04-16.

- FY2017: JPY 2.03T 

- FY2018: JPY 2.16T 

- FY2019: JPY 2.16T 

- FY2020: JPY 2.42T 

- FY2021: JPY 2.45T 

- FY2022: JPY 2.59T 

- FY2023: JPY 2.93T 

- FY2024: JPY 3.11T 

- FY2025: JPY 4.06T 

- FY2026: JPY 4.20T 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 20%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf; observed 2026-04-16.

- FY2017: 20.6% 

- FY2018: 20.6% 

- FY2019: 20.6% 

- FY2020: 19.8% 

- FY2021: 19.4% 

- FY2022: 20.4% 

- FY2023: 19.9% 

- FY2024: 20.1% 

- FY2025: 19.4% 

- FY2026: 20.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 4.2 trillion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf (filed 2026-04-16); FY2026: revenue 4197922000000; grossProfit 839819000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 19.4% to 20.1% during 2024–26; it earns 9.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 20.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 19.4%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf (filed 2026-04-16); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 20%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.09407040825810542],[2018,0.09391457328251458],[2019,0.08917993961459751],[2020,0.11468513386036944],[2021,0.10168059963637457],[2022,0.10736584220855475],[2023,0.10084987775378647],[2024,0.08867755899451658],[2025,0.0739476921626787],[2026,0.06934077294243225]]; median 0.09399249077031. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 20% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf (filed 2026-04-16); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.1935143348492626],[2022,0.20423281158829293],[2023,0.19949809395203214]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 11% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 5.4% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2017: growth capex 47468168477.31404; upkeep 47119831522.68596; owner earnings 97858168477.31404. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.4850710902924608.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2018: growth capex 36239146849.05089; upkeep 26659853150.949112; owner earnings 128547146849.05089. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.281913272580102.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2019: growth capex 254081034.0721817; upkeep 53622918965.92782; owner earnings 97114081034.07217. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.002616315073640435.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2020: growth capex 45104000000; upkeep 21518000000; owner earnings 141256000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3193067905080138.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2021: growth capex 7674610237.169266; upkeep 79815389762.83073; owner earnings 65452610237.169266. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.1172544564588045.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2022: growth capex 32544902416.075577; upkeep 50406097583.92442; owner earnings 127567902416.07558. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2551182687783569.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2023: growth capex 65451000000; upkeep 26711000000; owner earnings 184520000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3547095165835682.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2024: growth capex 35255189086.21981; upkeep 41681810913.78019; owner earnings 188388189086.21982. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.18714118574644045.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); FY2025: growth capex 55771000000; upkeep 35235000000; owner earnings 217705000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2561769366803702.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf (filed 2026-04-16); FY2026: growth capex 22309037894.936462; upkeep 72778962105.06354; owner earnings 202077037894.93646. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11039867828295928.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Incremental return on capital 0.05365583144925534, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Dividend observations: [[2017,41087000000],[2018,47627000000],[2019,54532000000],[2020,55077000000],[2021,58726000000],[2022,55608000000],[2023,66400000000],[2024,76864000000],[2025,82968000000],[2026,92712000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf (filed 2026-04-16); FY2026: cash repurchases 14000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.2% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 21.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-04-16); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07155826765347456. Price 3394; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 44.07615098099689 → FY2026 311.7590855427299. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,870.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,945.50 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,828.50 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,795.50 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,831.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,849.50 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,900.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,979.50 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,911.50 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,904.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,896.50 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 2,111.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,094.50 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,035.50 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 1,998.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 1,879.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 1,942.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,004.50 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 1,942.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 1,960.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 1,901.50 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 1,813.50 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 1,732.50 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 1,662.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 1,711.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 1,619.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 1,626.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 1,673.50 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 1,832.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 1,792.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 1,741.50 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 1,775.50 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 1,835.50 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,885.50 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 2,125.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,342.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,365.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 2,333.50 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 2,361.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 2,117.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,784.50 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,858.50 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 2,052.50 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 2,052.50 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,918.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 2,096.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,857.50 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,726.50 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,878.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 2,100.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 2,019.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,997.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 2,374.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 2,209.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 2,278.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 2,278.50 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 2,160.50 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 2,193.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 2,351.50 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 2,361.50 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 2,210.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 2,469.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 2,314.50 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 2,346.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 2,371.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 2,259.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 2,282.50 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 2,376.50 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 2,356.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 2,374.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 2,401.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 2,475.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 2,567.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 2,333.50 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 2,451.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 2,579.50 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 2,698.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 2,790.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 2,723.50 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 2,905.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 2,899.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 2,970.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 2,977.00 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,939.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 3,029.00 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 3,132.00 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 3,347.00 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 3,340.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 3,521.00 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 3,626.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 3,532.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 3,563.00 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 3,780.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 3,754.00 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 3,974.00 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 3,716.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 3,540.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 3,782.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 3,583.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 3,390.00 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 3,340.00 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 3,276.00 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 3,283.00 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 3,183.00 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 3,187.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 3,333.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 3,367.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 3,311.00 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 3,497.00 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 3,498.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 3,438.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 3,826.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 3,520.00 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 3,410.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 3,353.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 3,382.00 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 3,488.00 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 3,446.00 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 3,361.00 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 3,370.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 2,638.12 per share, central JPY 2,894.13 per share, high JPY 3,234.93 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 2,702.23 per share, central JPY 2,963.32 per share, high JPY 3,310.89 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 2,744.66 per share, central JPY 3,028.68 per share, high JPY 3,406.77 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 3,211.76 per share, central JPY 4,216.19 per share, high JPY 4,870.42 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 3,917.95 per share, central JPY 5,150.81 per share, high JPY 5,973.19 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 5,044.67 per share, central JPY 7,001.85 per share, high JPY 8,141.52 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 5,264.77 per share, central JPY 7,288.65 per share, high JPY 8,467.16 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XZ22.pdf); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-04-16.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.