# Nisshin Seifun Group (2002.JP)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2002.JP

Analysis as of: 2026-10-15T07:09:24.659Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2026.

Listing currency: JPY. Reporting currency: JPY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: JPY 2,041.50 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low JPY 960.93 per share, central JPY 1,053.66 per share, high JPY 1,177.11 per share. Buy at or below the central value JPY 1,053.66 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-15T07:09:24.659Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.0% at the stated quote. About 6.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; JP 10-year bond 2.9% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.12×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.05×

- FY2018: 0.05×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.04×

- FY2023: 0.04×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.05×

- FY2026: 0.05×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.0%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 5.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 2.8 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 25.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 22.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 3.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 5.5%

- FY2018: 6.1%

- FY2019: 6.3%

- FY2020: 5.9%

- FY2021: 5.0%

- FY2022: 5.1%

- FY2023: 5.6%

- FY2024: 7.4%

- FY2025: 6.7%

- FY2026: 6.1%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.61×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: JPY 65B

- Net income, five-year total: JPY 106B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 14.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 2.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 19.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.01×

- FY2023: 1.03×

- FY2024: 0.86×

- FY2025: 0.37×

- FY2026: 0.54×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.1% vs 6.7%

- Per-share earnings: 64.50 to 113.33 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: JPY 101B

- Cumulative retained earnings: JPY 47B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -0.5%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 7.3%

- Per-share value change: JPY 48.83

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: JPY 64.50

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: JPY 113.33

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.15

- Average buyback yield: 0.8%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: JPY 64B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: JPY 211B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 6.7%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: JPY 64.50

- FY2018: JPY 71.47

- FY2019: JPY 74.98

- FY2020: JPY 75.40

- FY2021: JPY 63.95

- FY2022: JPY 58.88

- FY2023: JPY -34.91

- FY2024: JPY 106.74

- FY2025: JPY 117.33

- FY2026: JPY 113.33

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -4.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.02×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.12×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.04×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -2.9%

- FY2018: -3.6%

- FY2019: -3.0%

- FY2020: -2.4%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -3.4%

- FY2023: -4.7%

- FY2024: -5.0%

- FY2025: -2.6%

- FY2026: -4.3%

## Holders

## Price story

Down 10% since Oct 2023 · sales +1.6%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:13.926Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 11.3% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.6%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: JPY 532B 

- FY2018: JPY 540B 

- FY2019: JPY 565B 

- FY2020: JPY 712B 

- FY2021: JPY 679B 

- FY2022: JPY 680B 

- FY2023: JPY 799B 

- FY2024: JPY 858B 

- FY2025: JPY 851B 

- FY2026: JPY 865B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 22.5%; source https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf; observed 2026-06-22.

- FY2017: 29.7% 

- FY2018: 29.9% 

- FY2019: 29.0% 

- FY2020: 28.1% 

- FY2021: 27.8% 

- FY2022: 21.8% 

- FY2023: 20.1% 

- FY2024: 21.5% 

- FY2025: 22.3% 

- FY2026: 22.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are JPY 865 billion.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: revenue 865004000000; grossProfit 194669000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.5% to 22.5% during 2024–26; it earns 6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 21.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 22.3%.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 22.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.05500927190274534],[2018,0.06148443287864174],[2019,0.06267288201933102],[2020,0.05888651058941272],[2021,0.04981207327182007],[2022,0.05078799110058568],[2023,0.055996048291660216],[2024,0.0744794678062387],[2025,0.06673215839424718],[2026,0.06118107334497744]]; median 0.06003379196719508. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 22.4% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 14.1% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 13549000000; owner earnings 22049000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2018: growth capex 2210979901.8388977; upkeep 17493020098.161102; owner earnings 19354979901.838898. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11423312827252456.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2019: growth capex 3282000000; upkeep 14951000000; owner earnings 21879000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.15000685588920884.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2020: growth capex 684000000; upkeep 21235000000; owner earnings 18858000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03627107858733694.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 17359000000; owner earnings 20049000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 18683000000; owner earnings 17732000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2024: growth capex 6192000000; upkeep 22999000000; owner earnings 27225000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.22743801652892562.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 41468000000; owner earnings 12682000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: growth capex 3969396642.9888077; upkeep 37204603357.01119; owner earnings 17694396642.988808. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2243307145802925.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Incremental return on capital 0.14113197759494875, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Dividend observations: [[2017,7546000000],[2018,8088000000],[2019,9209000000],[2020,9810000000],[2021,10111000000],[2022,11602000000],[2023,11603000000],[2024,12496000000],[2025,14579000000],[2026,17390000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf (filed 2026-06-22); FY2026: cash repurchases 17917000000 JPY.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 11.3% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 0.2%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-06-22); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.15035008839785957. Price 2041.5; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 62.502405899436255 → FY2026 61.53321585657497. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (JPY per share)

- 2016-11: JPY 1,603.00 per share

- 2016-12: JPY 1,754.00 per share

- 2017-01: JPY 1,717.00 per share

- 2017-02: JPY 1,689.00 per share

- 2017-03: JPY 1,661.00 per share

- 2017-04: JPY 1,709.00 per share

- 2017-05: JPY 1,829.00 per share

- 2017-06: JPY 1,845.00 per share

- 2017-07: JPY 1,812.00 per share

- 2017-08: JPY 1,911.00 per share

- 2017-09: JPY 1,885.00 per share

- 2017-10: JPY 1,989.00 per share

- 2017-11: JPY 2,196.00 per share

- 2017-12: JPY 2,276.00 per share

- 2018-01: JPY 2,187.00 per share

- 2018-02: JPY 2,122.00 per share

- 2018-03: JPY 2,109.00 per share

- 2018-04: JPY 2,393.00 per share

- 2018-05: JPY 2,300.00 per share

- 2018-06: JPY 2,345.00 per share

- 2018-07: JPY 2,185.00 per share

- 2018-08: JPY 2,223.00 per share

- 2018-09: JPY 2,490.00 per share

- 2018-10: JPY 2,251.00 per share

- 2018-11: JPY 2,385.00 per share

- 2018-12: JPY 2,271.00 per share

- 2019-01: JPY 2,191.00 per share

- 2019-02: JPY 2,388.00 per share

- 2019-03: JPY 2,540.00 per share

- 2019-04: JPY 2,584.00 per share

- 2019-05: JPY 2,524.00 per share

- 2019-06: JPY 2,459.00 per share

- 2019-07: JPY 2,065.00 per share

- 2019-08: JPY 1,998.00 per share

- 2019-09: JPY 1,998.00 per share

- 2019-10: JPY 2,150.00 per share

- 2019-11: JPY 2,056.00 per share

- 2019-12: JPY 1,906.00 per share

- 2020-01: JPY 1,878.00 per share

- 2020-02: JPY 1,826.00 per share

- 2020-03: JPY 1,802.00 per share

- 2020-04: JPY 1,682.00 per share

- 2020-05: JPY 1,679.00 per share

- 2020-06: JPY 1,609.00 per share

- 2020-07: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2020-08: JPY 1,751.00 per share

- 2020-09: JPY 1,667.00 per share

- 2020-10: JPY 1,571.00 per share

- 2020-11: JPY 1,697.00 per share

- 2020-12: JPY 1,641.00 per share

- 2021-01: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2021-02: JPY 1,713.00 per share

- 2021-03: JPY 1,850.00 per share

- 2021-04: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2021-05: JPY 1,644.00 per share

- 2021-06: JPY 1,625.00 per share

- 2021-07: JPY 1,766.00 per share

- 2021-08: JPY 1,804.00 per share

- 2021-09: JPY 1,861.00 per share

- 2021-10: JPY 1,799.00 per share

- 2021-11: JPY 1,636.00 per share

- 2021-12: JPY 1,658.00 per share

- 2022-01: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2022-02: JPY 1,630.00 per share

- 2022-03: JPY 1,706.00 per share

- 2022-04: JPY 1,738.00 per share

- 2022-05: JPY 1,506.00 per share

- 2022-06: JPY 1,588.00 per share

- 2022-07: JPY 1,636.00 per share

- 2022-08: JPY 1,570.00 per share

- 2022-09: JPY 1,468.00 per share

- 2022-10: JPY 1,608.00 per share

- 2022-11: JPY 1,615.00 per share

- 2022-12: JPY 1,653.00 per share

- 2023-01: JPY 1,625.00 per share

- 2023-02: JPY 1,574.00 per share

- 2023-03: JPY 1,551.00 per share

- 2023-04: JPY 1,649.00 per share

- 2023-05: JPY 1,749.00 per share

- 2023-06: JPY 1,779.50 per share

- 2023-07: JPY 1,764.00 per share

- 2023-08: JPY 1,920.50 per share

- 2023-09: JPY 1,905.50 per share

- 2023-10: JPY 2,277.00 per share

- 2023-11: JPY 2,048.50 per share

- 2023-12: JPY 1,898.50 per share

- 2024-01: JPY 2,060.50 per share

- 2024-02: JPY 2,075.00 per share

- 2024-03: JPY 2,102.50 per share

- 2024-04: JPY 2,056.00 per share

- 2024-05: JPY 1,762.00 per share

- 2024-06: JPY 1,849.50 per share

- 2024-07: JPY 1,866.00 per share

- 2024-08: JPY 1,888.50 per share

- 2024-09: JPY 1,818.50 per share

- 2024-10: JPY 1,786.00 per share

- 2024-11: JPY 1,828.00 per share

- 2024-12: JPY 1,842.00 per share

- 2025-01: JPY 1,749.00 per share

- 2025-02: JPY 1,685.50 per share

- 2025-03: JPY 1,730.50 per share

- 2025-04: JPY 1,842.50 per share

- 2025-05: JPY 1,740.50 per share

- 2025-06: JPY 1,722.50 per share

- 2025-07: JPY 1,753.00 per share

- 2025-08: JPY 1,790.00 per share

- 2025-09: JPY 1,816.00 per share

- 2025-10: JPY 1,741.50 per share

- 2025-11: JPY 1,873.50 per share

- 2025-12: JPY 1,922.00 per share

- 2026-01: JPY 1,964.00 per share

- 2026-02: JPY 2,184.00 per share

- 2026-03: JPY 2,095.50 per share

- 2026-04: JPY 1,994.00 per share

- 2026-05: JPY 1,965.00 per share

- 2026-06: JPY 1,985.50 per share

- 2026-07: JPY 2,012.50 per share

- 2026-08: JPY 2,047.50 per share

- 2026-09: JPY 1,977.50 per share

- 2026-10: JPY 1,983.00 per share

## Annual estimated value (JPY per share)

- FY2020: low JPY 1,083.37 per share, central JPY 1,212.80 per share, high JPY 1,385.09 per share

- FY2021: low JPY 1,057.26 per share, central JPY 1,180.71 per share, high JPY 1,345.04 per share

- FY2022: low JPY 929.27 per share, central JPY 1,030.91 per share, high JPY 1,166.22 per share

- FY2023: low JPY 1,138.25 per share, central JPY 1,454.46 per share, high JPY 1,665.18 per share

- FY2024: low JPY 1,287.73 per share, central JPY 1,621.21 per share, high JPY 1,845.65 per share

- FY2025: low JPY 1,212.08 per share, central JPY 1,511.86 per share, high JPY 1,723.65 per share

- FY2026: low JPY 960.93 per share, central JPY 1,053.66 per share, high JPY 1,177.11 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original EDINET filing](https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100YE6A.pdf); period 2026-03-31, filed 2026-06-22.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.